Poland’s Retail Sales YoY for November 2025 registered a 5.40% increase, surpassing the consensus forecast of 3.70% but retreating from October’s 6.70% peak. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, confirms robust consumer spending despite a backdrop of monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions. The reading remains well above the 12-month average of 3.10%, underscoring the resilience of domestic demand in Poland’s economy.

Drivers this month

• Shelter and food services contributed 0.22 percentage points (pp) to growth.
• Automotive and electronics sales slowed, subtracting -0.10 pp.
• Online retail continued strong, adding 0.15 pp.

Policy pulse

The 5.40% growth remains above the National Bank of Poland’s inflation target range of 2.50% ±1 pp, signaling persistent demand-side inflationary pressures. This complicates the central bank’s stance amid recent rate hikes aimed at cooling the economy.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PLN strengthened 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting hawkish sentiment.

Retail sales growth is a key macroeconomic indicator reflecting consumer confidence and spending power. Poland’s 5.40% YoY increase in November 2025 compares favorably to prior months and historical benchmarks, signaling sustained economic momentum.

Historical comparisons

• November 2024 recorded a 3.10% YoY rise, indicating acceleration over the past year.
• May 2025 saw a peak at 7.60%, linked to pent-up demand post-pandemic.
• March and April 2025 experienced slight contractions (-0.50% and -0.30%), reflecting temporary shocks.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The National Bank of Poland has raised interest rates by 125 basis points since mid-2025 to combat inflation. Despite this, retail sales remain strong, suggesting that tighter financial conditions have yet to fully dampen consumer spending.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal stimulus measures, including targeted subsidies and tax reliefs, continue to support household incomes. The government’s budget remains moderately expansionary, cushioning the impact of monetary tightening on consumption.

Monthly data from the Sigmanomics database shows volatility in retail sales, with peaks in May (7.60%) and October (6.70%), and troughs in early 2025. The November print suggests a stabilizing trend after recent fluctuations.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: PLN/USD appreciated 0.25% post-release, while 2-year yields climbed, reflecting market expectations of continued central bank vigilance.

Looking ahead, Poland’s retail sales trajectory will hinge on several factors including inflation trends, monetary policy, and external risks. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Inflation eases faster than expected, allowing rate cuts by mid-2026.
• Consumer confidence rebounds, pushing retail sales growth above 6% YoY.
• Fiscal stimulus is expanded, supporting disposable incomes.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Monetary policy remains tight but stable, with retail sales growth moderating to 4-5% YoY.
• External shocks are contained, and inflation gradually declines.
• Fiscal policy remains supportive but cautious.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting supply chains and consumer sentiment.
• Inflation remains sticky, forcing further rate hikes and dampening retail sales below 3% YoY.
• Fiscal austerity measures reduce household spending power.

Structural & long-run trends

Poland’s retail sector is undergoing digital transformation, with e-commerce gaining market share. Demographic shifts and urbanization also shape consumption patterns, supporting long-term growth despite cyclical fluctuations.

Poland’s November 2025 Retail Sales YoY growth of 5.40% confirms resilient consumer demand amid tightening monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty. While the figure is down from October’s peak, it remains above the annual average, signaling sustained momentum. The interplay of fiscal support, evolving financial conditions, and external risks will determine the near-term path. Market participants should watch inflation trends and central bank signals closely.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY

Retail sales data in Poland often influences currency, bond, and equity markets. The following symbols historically track or react to changes in Polish retail sales, reflecting economic sentiment and capital flows:

• USDEUR – Eurozone currency pair sensitive to regional economic shifts including Poland’s trade and consumption trends.
• PKN – Polish oil refiner whose sales and stock price correlate with domestic consumption levels.
• PLNUSD – Direct currency pair reflecting investor confidence in Poland’s economy.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often inversely correlates with risk sentiment linked to macroeconomic data.
• CDR – CD Projekt, a major Polish tech stock, sensitive to consumer discretionary spending trends.

FAQs

What does Poland’s Retail Sales YoY indicate?

It measures the annual growth in consumer spending, a key driver of economic activity and inflation.

How does retail sales affect monetary policy in Poland?

Strong retail sales can signal inflationary pressures, prompting the central bank to tighten policy.

Why is retail sales data important for investors?

It influences currency strength, bond yields, and equity valuations by reflecting economic health.

Takeaway: Poland’s retail sales growth remains robust but faces headwinds from monetary tightening and external risks. Monitoring inflation and policy responses will be critical for economic forecasts.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/25/25