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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Economic Activity YoY fell to 2.1% in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Portugal Economic Activity YoY fell to 2.1% in February 2026, released March 2026, down 0.1% from January's 2.2% reading. The reading matched the 2.1% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.93%. Over the past 3 months, Economic Activity YoY averaged 2.17%, vs 2.15% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
2.1
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 2.13
Actual: 2.1
Error: +0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Economic Activity YoY (Portugal) was reported at 2.1% in March 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.92%, ranging from 1.5% to 2.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.17%, up from the prior three at 2.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.29%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.32%). In March readings over the past 3 years, Economic Activity YoY has averaged 2.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Economic Activity YoY - PT
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About Economic Activity YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
Economic Activity YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in economic activity over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of an economy, allowing businesses and investors to make informed decisions. By comparing current economic activity to the same period in the previous year, this indicator helps to identify trends and potential risks, making it a crucial tool for assessing the performance of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.2 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.