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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Private Consumption YoY fell to 3.1% in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Portugal Private Consumption YoY fell to 3.1% in February 2026, released March 2026, down 0.2% from January's 3.3% reading. The reading matched the 3.2% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.9%. Over the past 3 months, Private Consumption YoY averaged 3.2%, vs 2.98% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 57th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.1
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 3.38
Actual: 3.1
Error: +0.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Private Consumption YoY (Portugal) was reported at 3.1% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.11%, ranging from 2.9% to 3.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.2%, up from the prior three at 2.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.79%). In March readings over the past 3 years, Private Consumption YoY has averaged 3.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Private Consumption YoY - PT
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About Private Consumption YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
Private Consumption YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the annual growth rate of consumer spending in a country. It reflects the overall health of the economy by showing the rate at which individuals and households are spending on goods and services. A positive YoY growth indicates a strong economy, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown. Private Consumption YoY is an important tool for investors and policymakers to assess consumer confidence and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 3.1 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.41) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.