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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PortugalPortugal Retail Sales YoY climbed to 3.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Portugal Retail Sales YoY climbed to 3.0% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.3% from June's 2.7% reading. The print exceeded the 2.5% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.65%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 3.7%, vs 5.0% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales YoY is now the lowest in 13 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.96 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.65
Actual: 3
Error: -0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Portugal) was reported at 3% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.5% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.28%, ranging from 3% to 6.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.07%, down from the prior three at 4.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.04%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.26%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.96%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - PT
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About Retail Sales YoY — Portugal
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PT Events
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | PT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Low | |
| 10:00 | PT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 6.7 | 6.80 | Low | |
| 10:30 | PT | Current Account | -303.42 | 980 | 995.21 | Low | |