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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ParaguayParaguay Balance of Trade fell to 47.09M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Paraguay Balance of Trade fell to 47.09M in June 2026, released July 2026, down 206.36M from May's 253.45M reading. The print exceeded the -100M consensus by 147.09M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -17,093.99M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 50.39M, vs -24.31M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
47.09
Actual
-100
Consensus
253.45
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±122.78 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -51.4
Actual: 47.09
Error: -98.49
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Paraguay) was reported at 47.09 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -100.00 million by 147.09 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 253.45 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -238.49 million, ranging from -841.10 million to 98.10 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 49.29 million, up from the prior three at -147.46 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 288.82 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 148.60 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -294.58 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 122.78 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - PY
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About Balance of Trade — Paraguay
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 47.09 M, consensus -100 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 98.1 M. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.68 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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