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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ParaguayParaguay Balance of Trade climbed to 98.1B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Paraguay Balance of Trade climbed to 98.1B in May 2026, released June 2026, up 81.3B from April's 16.8B reading. The print exceeded the 0.9B consensus by 97.2B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -17,172.25B. The reading is in the 91st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
98.1
Actual
0.9
Consensus
16.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±129.43 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.9
Actual: 98.1
Error: -97.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Paraguay) was reported at 98.10 billion in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.90 billion by 97.20 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 16.80 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -312.99 billion, ranging from -841.10 billion to 98.10 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 7.76 billion, up from the prior three at -185.51 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 301.36 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 152.57 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -219.88 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 129.43 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 13, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - PY
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About Balance of Trade — Paraguay
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 98.1 M, consensus 0.9 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.68 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 166.8 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.