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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ParaguayParaguay Balance of Trade fell to -50.84M in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Paraguay Balance of Trade fell to -50.84M in August 2026, released September 2026, down 1.55M from July's -49.29M reading. The reading missed the 24M consensus by 74.84M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -16,990.93M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -24.45M, vs 89.18M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 81st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-50.84
Actual
24
Consensus
-49.29
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±122.78 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 31.28
Actual: -50.84
Error: +82.12
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Paraguay) was reported at -50.84 million in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 24.00 million by 74.84 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -49.29 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -124.62 million, ranging from -613.19 million to 98.10 million across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -33.24 million, down from the prior three at 7.76 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 188.28 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 170.00 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -301.78 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 122.78 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 13, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - PY
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About Balance of Trade — Paraguay
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -50.84 M, consensus 24 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -95.98 M. Before that (Jun 2026): 47.09 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.41) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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