Serbia’s GDP growth rate of 2.00% YoY in December 2025 marks a moderation from the 2.10% recorded in September 2025 and a sharper decline from the 3.30% peak in early 2025. This deceleration aligns with broader regional trends of cooling economic momentum amid tighter monetary conditions and external uncertainties. The Sigmanomics database confirms this as the lowest growth rate since April 2025, when growth also stood at 2.00%.

Drivers this month

• Domestic consumption remained stable but showed signs of fatigue.
• Export growth slowed due to weaker demand in key European markets.
• Investment activity softened amid rising borrowing costs.

Policy pulse

The 2.00% growth rate sits below Serbia’s historical average of around 3.00% for the past two years, signaling a need for calibrated monetary and fiscal support to sustain momentum without stoking inflationary pressures.

Market lens

Following the release, the Serbian dinar (RSD) showed mild depreciation against the euro, while short-term government bond yields edged higher, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the GDP growth moderation. Inflation in Serbia remains contained at approximately 3.50% YoY, close to the National Bank of Serbia’s target range of 3% ±1.50%. Unemployment has held steady near 9%, while industrial production growth slowed to 1.20% YoY in November 2025.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank of Serbia has maintained its policy rate at 4.50% since mid-2025, balancing inflation control with growth support. Credit growth has decelerated to 5% YoY, reflecting tighter lending standards and cautious borrower demand.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government targeting a 3.80% of GDP deficit in 2025 to support infrastructure and social programs. Public debt stands at 55% of GDP, manageable but warranting vigilance amid slower growth.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Serbia faces headwinds from slower EU demand and regional geopolitical tensions, including trade frictions and energy supply uncertainties. These factors weigh on export performance and investor confidence.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The RSD depreciated 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, signaling investor caution.

Looking ahead, Serbia’s growth trajectory depends on several factors, including global demand, domestic policy responses, and geopolitical developments. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish Scenario (25% probability)

• EU economic recovery accelerates, boosting Serbian exports.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit growth.
• Fiscal stimulus enhances infrastructure investment.
• GDP growth rebounds to 3.50%+ by mid-2026.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate EU growth sustains export demand.
• Monetary policy tightens slightly to contain inflation.
• Fiscal deficit remains stable, supporting social spending.
• GDP growth stabilizes around 2.00–2.50% through 2026.

Bearish Scenario (25% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade.
• Inflation spikes, forcing aggressive monetary tightening.
• Fiscal consolidation pressures dampen domestic demand.
• GDP growth falls below 1.50%, risking recession.

Policy pulse

Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and maintaining price stability. The National Bank of Serbia’s cautious stance and the government’s moderate fiscal expansion are key to navigating this environment.

Serbia’s GDP growth rate of 2.00% YoY in December 2025 signals a phase of moderated expansion amid tightening financial conditions and external uncertainties. While growth remains positive, the slowdown from earlier in the year highlights vulnerabilities to global shocks and domestic policy constraints. Forward-looking strategies should emphasize diversification of export markets, prudent fiscal management, and calibrated monetary policy to sustain growth momentum.

Market lens

Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to Serbia’s growth data, with currency and bond yields reflecting evolving risk perceptions. Investors should monitor upcoming inflation prints and geopolitical developments closely.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY

Serbia’s GDP growth rate influences several tradable markets, notably in equities, forex, and crypto. Movements in these markets often reflect investor sentiment on economic health and policy outlook.

• BELEX15: Serbia’s main stock index, sensitive to domestic economic growth and corporate earnings.
• EURRSD: The Serbian dinar’s exchange rate against the euro, directly impacted by growth and monetary policy.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and risk appetite shifts.
• MBG: A major Serbian bank stock, reflecting credit conditions and economic outlook.
• USDRSD: USD to Serbian dinar rate, sensitive to capital flows and risk sentiment.

Insight: GDP Growth Rate vs. BELEX15 Since 2020

Since 2020, Serbia’s GDP growth rate and the BELEX15 index have shown a positive correlation, with the stock market often leading GDP trends by several months. For example, the 2023 rebound in BELEX15 preceded the 2024 GDP acceleration. The recent slowdown in GDP growth to 2.00% coincides with a plateau in BELEX15 performance, suggesting cautious investor sentiment. Monitoring this relationship can provide early signals for economic shifts.

FAQs

What does Serbia’s GDP Growth Rate YoY indicate?

The GDP Growth Rate YoY measures the annual change in Serbia’s economic output, reflecting overall economic health and momentum.

How does the latest GDP growth compare historically?

The 2.00% growth in December 2025 is lower than the 3.30% peak in early 2025 and the 3.10% average in late 2024, indicating a slowdown phase.

What factors influence Serbia’s GDP growth?

Key drivers include domestic consumption, export demand, investment levels, monetary and fiscal policies, and external geopolitical risks.

Takeaway: Serbia’s economy is entering a phase of moderated growth, requiring balanced policy measures to sustain momentum amid global uncertainties.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 12/1/25