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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SerbiaSerbia GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 3.8% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
Serbia GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 3.8% in April 2026, released August 2026, up 0.6% from March's 3.2% reading. The print exceeded the 3.6% consensus by 0.2%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 22 months.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.6
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.65
Actual: 3.8
Error: -0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Serbia) was reported at 3.8% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.6% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.71%, ranging from 2% to 3.8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.53%, up from the prior three at 2.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.73%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.59%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - RS
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Serbia
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.6 %, consensus 3.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.6 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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