The Consumer Confidence Index for Russia stands at -9.00 in September 2025, reflecting a slight deterioration from the previous quarter’s -8.00 but consistent with the Sigmanomics database forecast. This level remains below the neutral zero mark, indicating persistent consumer pessimism. The index has fluctuated between -15.00 in mid-2023 and a recent low of -6.00 in July 2024, showing a volatile but generally cautious consumer mood over the past two years.

Drivers this month

• Rising inflation pressures have eroded purchasing power, contributing -0.30 points to the confidence decline.
• Geopolitical tensions and sanctions remain a drag, weighing on consumer expectations.
• Moderate wage growth and government transfers partially offset negative sentiment.

Policy pulse

The current reading sits below the central bank’s comfort zone, which targets consumer confidence above -5 to support consumption-led growth. The Bank of Russia’s recent rate cuts have yet to fully translate into improved sentiment.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The RUB/USD currency pair depreciated 0.40% within the first hour post-release, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Short-term bond yields edged up 5 basis points, signaling risk aversion.

Consumer confidence is a leading indicator for retail sales, household spending, and overall economic growth. Russia’s recent CCI of -9.00 contrasts with a 12-month average of -9.50, indicating a slight improvement over the year but a setback from the mid-2024 peak of -6.00. Inflation remains elevated at approximately 6.50% YoY, while real wage growth has slowed to 1.20% YoY, constraining disposable income.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bank of Russia has maintained a cautious easing stance, lowering the key rate from 7.50% to 7.00% over the past six months. However, credit growth remains subdued amid geopolitical uncertainties and tighter global financial conditions. The real effective exchange rate of the RUB has weakened by 3.20% since June, pressuring imported goods prices.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government increasing social spending by 4.50% YoY to support vulnerable households. The budget deficit is projected at 2.80% of GDP for 2025, slightly higher than the 2.50% target, reflecting stimulus efforts amid external headwinds.

Historical data from the Sigmanomics database shows that consumer confidence in Russia has oscillated between -15.00 in mid-2023 and -6.00 in mid-2024, reflecting the impact of sanctions, energy price fluctuations, and domestic policy shifts. The current reading suggests consumers remain wary but not as pessimistic as during the height of external shocks.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MOEX Russia Index (IMOEX) declined 0.60% following the release, reflecting investor concerns about subdued domestic demand. The RUB/USD pair’s 0.40% depreciation underscores currency sensitivity to consumer sentiment.

Looking ahead, Russia’s consumer confidence trajectory will hinge on inflation control, geopolitical developments, and policy responses. Three scenarios emerge:

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Inflation falls below 5% by early 2026, boosting real incomes.
• Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to sanctions relief.
• Consumer confidence rises above -5, supporting stronger retail sales and GDP growth of 2.50%+.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Inflation remains near 6%, real wage growth modest at 1-2%.
• Geopolitical risks persist but no major escalations.
• Consumer confidence hovers around -8 to -10, with moderate consumption growth and GDP near 1.50%.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Inflation spikes above 7%, eroding purchasing power.
• New sanctions or geopolitical shocks further dampen sentiment.
• Consumer confidence falls below -12, triggering a contraction in retail sales and GDP growth below 1%.

Policy pulse

Monetary easing may continue cautiously, but fiscal support will be critical to offset external shocks. The government’s ability to maintain social transfers and stimulate demand will shape the confidence outlook.

Russia’s Consumer Confidence Index at -9.00 reflects a fragile but stable consumer mood amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical challenges. While recent policy measures have provided some relief, the outlook remains clouded by external risks and structural constraints. Monitoring inflation trends, wage dynamics, and geopolitical developments will be essential for anticipating shifts in consumer behavior and broader economic momentum.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence in Russia is closely watched by equity, currency, and bond markets. The MOEX Russia Index (IMOEX) often tracks shifts in sentiment, as do the RUB/USD forex pair and short-term government bonds. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market, represented by BTCUSD, can reflect risk appetite changes linked to economic confidence. The RTS Index (RTSI) also tends to respond to consumer sentiment fluctuations, given its exposure to domestic economic conditions.

Selected Tradable Symbols

• IMOEX – Russia’s primary equity index, sensitive to consumer demand shifts.
• RUBUSD – The ruble-dollar exchange rate, reflecting currency risk linked to confidence.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price, often a proxy for risk sentiment.
• RTSI – Russia Trading System Index, tracking broader market sentiment.
• EURRUB – Euro-ruble pair, sensitive to geopolitical and economic shifts.

Insight Box: Consumer Confidence vs. IMOEX Since 2020

Since 2020, Russia’s Consumer Confidence Index and the IMOEX have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.65. Periods of rising confidence, such as mid-2021 and early 2024, coincided with equity rallies exceeding 15%. Conversely, sharp confidence drops in 2023 aligned with market corrections of 10% or more. This relationship underscores the importance of consumer sentiment as a barometer for equity market performance in Russia.

FAQs

What does the Russia Consumer Confidence Index indicate?

The index measures consumers’ economic outlook and willingness to spend, signaling future retail and economic activity.

How does consumer confidence affect Russia’s economy?

Higher confidence typically boosts consumption and GDP growth, while lower confidence signals caution and slower economic expansion.

What factors influence Russia’s consumer confidence?

Inflation, wages, geopolitical risks, monetary and fiscal policies, and external shocks all play significant roles.

Key takeaway: Russia’s consumer confidence remains subdued but stable, with inflation and geopolitical risks as key headwinds. Policy support and easing external tensions are critical for a sustained recovery in sentiment and economic growth.