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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -0.2% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Russia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -0.2% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 1.2% from December's 1.0% reading. The print exceeded the -0.5% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.21%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 33 months.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.5
Actual: -0.2
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Russia) was reported at -0.2% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.5% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.77%, ranging from -0.2% to 1.4% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, down from the prior three at 1.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.52%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.02%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 2.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product YoY (Jun 17) and Interest Rate Decision (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - RU
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus -0.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 1 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.