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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -0.2% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Russia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -0.2% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 1.2% from December's 1.0% reading. The reading matched the -0.2% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.85%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 34 months.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
-0.2
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.05
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Russia) was reported at -0.2% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.5%, ranging from -0.2% to 1.1% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.07%, down from the prior three at 0.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.54%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.19%). In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 2.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - RU
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus -0.2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | RU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.5 | 50.55 | Medium | |