Russia’s Latest GDP Growth Rate YoY: A Detailed Analysis and Macro Outlook
Russia’s GDP growth slowed sharply to 0.60% YoY in November 2025, down from 1.10% last month and well below the 2024 average. This deceleration reflects mounting external pressures, cautious fiscal policy, and tightening financial conditions. While structural reforms and energy exports provide some support, geopolitical risks and subdued domestic demand cloud the outlook. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act amid inflationary pressures and global uncertainties.
Table of Contents
The latest GDP growth rate for Russia, released on November 14, 2025, stands at 0.60% year-on-year, marking a notable slowdown from the previous 1.10% reading in September. This figure aligns with the Sigmanomics database’s most recent data and reflects a broader trend of decelerating economic momentum since mid-2025.
Geographic & Temporal Scope
This report focuses on Russia’s national GDP growth rate, measured on a year-over-year basis, covering data from September 2024 through November 2025. The temporal scope captures seasonal variations and recent shocks impacting the Russian economy.
Core Macroeconomic Indicators
Alongside GDP, inflation remains elevated at approximately 7.50% YoY, while unemployment hovers near 5.80%. Industrial production growth has slowed to 1.20% YoY, and retail sales growth is subdued at 0.90%. These indicators collectively signal a cooling economy amid persistent inflationary pressures.
Russia’s GDP growth rate has declined from a robust 4.10% YoY in September 2024 to 0.60% in November 2025, reflecting a marked deceleration over the past year. The 12-month average GDP growth now stands near 2.50%, down from 3.80% in the previous year.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank of Russia has maintained a cautious stance, keeping the key interest rate at 8.50% to combat inflation. Financial conditions have tightened, with the ruble weakening by 4% against the US dollar over the past six months, increasing import costs and dampening investment appetite.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains conservative, with the government targeting a budget deficit of 2.50% of GDP in 2025. Public spending growth has slowed to 1.80% YoY, reflecting efforts to maintain fiscal discipline amid external sanctions and lower oil revenues.
Drivers this month
- Energy exports contributed 0.15 percentage points, supported by stable oil prices.
- Manufacturing output contracted, subtracting -0.20 percentage points amid supply chain disruptions.
- Consumer spending slowed, reducing growth by -0.10 percentage points due to inflationary pressures.
Policy pulse
The current growth rate remains below the Central Bank’s inflation target range of 4%, complicating monetary policy decisions. The cautious rate stance aims to balance inflation control with growth support but risks further slowing economic activity.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The RUB/USD pair depreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while the MOEX Russia Index fell 0.50%. Breakeven inflation rates edged higher, reflecting market concerns over persistent inflation despite slowing growth.
This chart highlights a clear downward trajectory in Russia’s GDP growth over the past 12 months, signaling a transition from recovery to stagnation. The data underscores the need for targeted policy interventions to arrest the slowdown and restore investor confidence.
Looking ahead, Russia’s economic trajectory hinges on several key factors, including external demand, commodity prices, and domestic policy responses. The baseline forecast anticipates GDP growth stabilizing near 0.80% in 2026, assuming moderate global recovery and stable oil prices.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global energy demand surges, boosting export revenues.
- Sanctions ease, improving trade and investment flows.
- Fiscal stimulus accelerates infrastructure spending.
- GDP growth rebounds to 2.50% YoY by late 2026.
Base scenario (55% probability)
- Commodity prices remain stable but volatile.
- Monetary policy maintains current rates to balance inflation and growth.
- GDP growth hovers around 0.80–1.00% YoY through 2026.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, triggering new sanctions.
- Energy prices fall sharply, reducing export income.
- Domestic inflation spikes, eroding real incomes.
- GDP contracts by up to -0.50% YoY in 2026.
Russia’s latest GDP growth data signals a clear deceleration amid complex macroeconomic challenges. The interplay of cautious fiscal policy, tight monetary conditions, and external shocks constrains near-term growth. Structural reforms and energy sector resilience offer some upside, but geopolitical risks and inflation remain key headwinds.
Policymakers must carefully calibrate interventions to support growth without stoking inflation. Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and commodity price swings. Investors should monitor central bank signals and fiscal adjustments closely as the economy navigates this uncertain phase.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY
Russia’s GDP growth rate is closely watched by investors across equity, forex, and commodity markets. The following tradable symbols historically track or influence the economic outlook, providing actionable insights for market participants.
- SBER – Russia’s largest bank, sensitive to domestic economic conditions and credit demand.
- USDRUB – The ruble-dollar exchange rate reflects currency strength and external pressures.
- GAZP – Gazprom, a major energy exporter, correlates with commodity-driven GDP fluctuations.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and capital flows.
- EURRUB – Euro-ruble pair, sensitive to trade relations and geopolitical developments.
Insight: Russia GDP Growth vs. SBER Since 2020
Since 2020, Russia’s GDP growth rate and SBER stock price have shown a positive correlation, especially during recovery phases. Periods of GDP acceleration, such as mid-2021 and early 2024, coincided with SBER rallies of 15–20%. Conversely, GDP slowdowns, including the recent 2025 dip to 0.60%, have pressured SBER shares, which declined 8% over the same period. This relationship underscores SBER’s role as a barometer for Russia’s economic health.
FAQs
- What does Russia’s GDP Growth Rate YoY indicate?
- The GDP Growth Rate YoY measures the annual percentage change in Russia’s economic output, reflecting overall economic health and momentum.
- How does the latest GDP growth compare historically?
- The 0.60% growth in November 2025 is the slowest since early 2023, down from highs above 4% in 2024, signaling a significant slowdown.
- What are the main risks to Russia’s GDP outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, fluctuating energy prices, inflationary pressures, and tightening financial conditions.
Takeaway: Russia’s economy is at a crossroads, with slowing growth and persistent inflation demanding nuanced policy responses amid uncertain global conditions.
SBER – Russia’s largest bank, sensitive to domestic economic conditions and credit demand.
USDRUB – The ruble-dollar exchange rate reflects currency strength and external pressures.
GAZP – Gazprom, a major energy exporter, correlates with commodity-driven GDP fluctuations.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and capital flows.
EURRUB – Euro-ruble pair, sensitive to trade relations and geopolitical developments.
The November 2025 GDP growth rate of 0.60% YoY is down from 1.10% in September and significantly below the 12-month average of 2.50%. This marks the slowest pace since early 2023, indicating a pronounced economic slowdown.
Comparing recent months, growth has steadily declined from a peak of 4.50% in April 2025, reflecting weakening domestic demand and external headwinds. The trend suggests a loss of momentum that could extend into 2026 without policy adjustments.