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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RussiaRussia Retail Sales YoY fell to 5.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Russia Retail Sales YoY fell to 5.3% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 2.0% from June's 7.3% reading. The reading missed the 6.2% consensus by 0.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.33%. The reading is in the 70th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.3
Actual
6.2
Consensus
7.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.24 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.85
Actual: 5.3
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Russia) was reported at 5.3% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 6.2% by 0.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.67%, ranging from 0.3% to 7.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.37%, up from the prior three at 1.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.23%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.85%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.24%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 30) and Gross Domestic Product YoY (Sep 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - RU
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About Retail Sales YoY — Russia
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.3 %, consensus 6.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 7.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 6.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - RU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 5.50 | Low |
| 16:00 | RU | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.9 | 0.00 | Low |