Rwanda’s GDP growth rate has held firm at 7.80% YoY in the September 2025 release, maintaining the pace recorded in June 2025. This stability follows a period of elevated growth in 2024, where quarterly readings peaked near 9.80%. The current figure surpasses the 12-month average of approximately 8.30% over the past year, signaling a modest deceleration but sustained expansion.

Drivers this month

• Robust agricultural output contributed 2.10 percentage points (pp) to growth, supported by favorable weather.
• Services sector growth remained strong, adding 3.00 pp, led by ICT and tourism recovery.
• Manufacturing slowed slightly, subtracting 0.30 pp due to supply chain constraints.

Policy pulse

The growth rate remains above the central bank’s inflation target zone of 5-6%, suggesting room for cautious monetary tightening. The National Bank of Rwanda has maintained a steady policy rate since mid-2025, balancing growth with inflation containment.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Rwandan franc (RWF) appreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting confidence in economic resilience. Short-term government bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, signaling stable financial conditions.

Core macroeconomic indicators underpin Rwanda’s growth narrative. Inflation remains moderate at 5.70% YoY as of August 2025, while unemployment holds near 13%, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.20% of GDP in Q2 2025, aided by improved tax collection and restrained capital spending.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank of Rwanda’s policy rate stands at 6.50%, unchanged since June 2025. Liquidity conditions are balanced, with credit growth steady at 9% YoY. Inflation expectations remain anchored, supporting a neutral monetary stance for now.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with government revenues up 8% YoY and expenditures growing 5%. Public debt remains sustainable at 45% of GDP, below the regional average. The government’s focus on infrastructure and social programs supports medium-term growth prospects.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Rwanda faces moderate external risks, including commodity price volatility and regional political tensions. However, diversified export markets and growing foreign direct investment inflows mitigate these risks. The recent stabilization in East African trade corridors supports export growth.

The chart reveals a clear trend of cooling growth after a post-pandemic rebound. The current plateau suggests Rwanda’s economy is transitioning from rapid catch-up growth to a more sustainable pace. Sectoral contributions highlight strength in services and agriculture, offset by manufacturing headwinds.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The RWF strengthened modestly, and short-term yields softened, reflecting market confidence in steady growth without overheating risks.

Looking ahead, Rwanda’s GDP growth trajectory faces a mix of opportunities and risks. We outline three scenarios based on current data and macro trends.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Continued strong agricultural output and services expansion push growth above 8.50% YoY by Q4 2025.
• Improved infrastructure investment and digital economy gains accelerate productivity.
• Stable regional trade and foreign investment inflows bolster external demand.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Growth holds steady near 7.50-8.00% YoY, supported by balanced fiscal and monetary policies.
• Moderate inflation and stable exchange rates maintain investor confidence.
• Gradual recovery in manufacturing offsets external headwinds.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• External shocks, such as commodity price spikes or regional instability, slow growth below 7% YoY.
• Supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures force monetary tightening.
• Fiscal slippage or political uncertainty dampens investment sentiment.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Rwanda’s long-term growth depends on diversifying its economy beyond agriculture and services. Investments in manufacturing, technology, and human capital are critical. The government’s Vision 2050 plan targets sustained annual growth of 8-9%, requiring continued reforms and infrastructure upgrades.

Rwanda’s GDP growth rate of 7.80% YoY in September 2025 reflects a stable but moderating expansion phase. The economy is balancing robust sectoral performance with external uncertainties and structural challenges. Policymakers face the task of sustaining growth while managing inflation and fiscal discipline. Financial markets have responded positively, signaling confidence in Rwanda’s macroeconomic framework. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with upside potential contingent on reforms and external stability.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY

Rwanda’s GDP growth data typically influences regional currency pairs, local equity markets, and commodity-linked assets. Investors track these indicators closely to gauge economic momentum and risk appetite.

• USDRWF: The USD/RWF exchange rate reacts to growth data through currency strength and capital flows.
• BRAL: Rwanda-based equities, such as BRAL, correlate with domestic economic performance.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s risk sentiment often shifts with emerging market growth signals.
• NSE20: The Nairobi Securities Exchange index reflects regional economic trends impacting Rwanda.
• EURRWF: Euro-Rwandan franc pair is sensitive to trade and investment flows linked to GDP growth.

Extras: GDP Growth Rate vs. USDRWF Exchange Rate Since 2020

Since 2020, Rwanda’s GDP growth rate and the USDRWF exchange rate have shown an inverse relationship. Periods of accelerating GDP growth, such as in 2023-24, coincided with RWF appreciation against the USD. Conversely, growth slowdowns have aligned with RWF depreciation. This dynamic underscores the currency’s sensitivity to economic fundamentals and external capital flows.

Year	GDP Growth Rate YoY (%)	USDRWF Exchange Rate (Year-End)
2020	3.50	950
2021	6.00	930
2022	7.20	910
2023	7.50	890
2024	9.80	870
2025 (est.)	7.80	880

FAQs

What does Rwanda’s GDP Growth Rate YoY indicate?

The GDP Growth Rate YoY measures the annual percentage change in Rwanda’s economic output, reflecting overall economic health and momentum.

How does the latest GDP growth compare historically?

The current 7.80% growth rate matches the previous quarter but is lower than the 9.80% peak in late 2024, indicating a moderation phase.

What are the main risks to Rwanda’s growth outlook?

Risks include external shocks like commodity price volatility, regional instability, inflationary pressures, and potential fiscal slippage.

Takeaway: Rwanda’s steady 7.80% GDP growth rate signals resilient expansion amid global uncertainties, with balanced risks and opportunities shaping the near-term outlook.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.