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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
RwandaRwanda Producer Price Index YoY fell to 3.4% in November 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2026
Rwanda Producer Price Index YoY fell to 3.4% in November 2025, released January 2026, down 3.4% from October's 6.8% reading. The reading missed the 5.6% consensus by 2.2%. Producer Price Index YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 10.15%, vs 11.95% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
5.6
Consensus
6.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.2 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 5.3
Actual: 3.4
Error: +1.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Rwanda) was reported at 3.4% in January 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.6% by 2.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 9.41%, ranging from 3.4% to 13.5% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 7.9%, down from the prior three at 11.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.2%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - RW
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Rwanda
DEFINITION
Rwanda’s Producer Price Index YoY for December 2025 came in at 3.4%, significantly missing the 5.6% consensus and down sharply from November’s 6.8%. This 3.4% reading signals a clear deceleration in producer inflation, reflecting easing cost pressures after a volatile 2025 marked by peaks above 13%. Looking ahead, this moderation may allow the National Bank of Rwanda to pause rate hikes, while markets anticipate stable inflation amid balanced risks from external shocks. Updated 1/9/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2025): actual 3.4 %, consensus 5.6 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 6.8 %. Before that (Sep 2025): 13.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.