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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI fell to 48.8 in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI fell to 48.8 in March 2026, released April 2026, down 7.3 from February's 56.1 reading. The reading missed the 53 consensus by 4.2. Riyad Bank PMI has now declined for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Riyad Bank PMI averaged 56.6, vs 59.35 in the prior 3-month window. Riyad Bank PMI is now the lowest in 29 months.
Latest Release
48.8
Actual
53
Consensus
56.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.76
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 55.33
Actual: 56.1
Error: -0.77
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Riyad Bank PMI (Saudi Arabia) was reported at 48.80 in April 2026. This missed the market consensus of 53.00 by 4.20. The reading fell from the previous value of 56.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 57.38, ranging from 56.10 to 60.20 across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 56.60, down from the prior three at 58.83. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.34) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.84). In March readings over the past 3 years, Riyad Bank PMI has averaged 57.23.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.76.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Riyad Bank PMI - SA
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About Riyad Bank PMI — Saudi Arabia
DEFINITION
The Riyad Bank PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a leading economic indicator that measures the performance of the non-oil private sector in Saudi Arabia. It provides valuable insights into the country's economic health by tracking changes in business activity, new orders, employment, and prices. This data is collected through surveys of purchasing managers from a variety of industries, making it a reliable and comprehensive measure of economic activity. The Riyad Bank PMI is widely used by businesses, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic outlook of Saudi Arabia.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 48.8, consensus 53. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 56.1. Before that (Jan 2026): 56.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - SA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:50 | SA | GDP Growth Rate YoY | -4.8 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.50 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | SA | Bank Lending YoY | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 6.95 | Low |