Key Takeaways: Sweden’s Business Confidence Index fell to 104.7 in January from December’s 106.4, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. The index remains above the 12-month average of 102.2, signaling continued optimism despite recent softening. Market reaction was muted, with equities and SEK holding steady.
Sweden’s Business Confidence Retreats for Second Month, Remains Above Trend
Sweden’s Business Confidence Index posted a reading of 104.7 for January 2026, released February 26. This marks a 1.7-point month-over-month drop from December’s 106.4, but the indicator remains above its 12-month average. The latest data reflect a cooling but still resilient sentiment among Swedish firms, as tracked by the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER)[1].
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing sentiment: -0.6pp
- Construction: -0.4pp
- Retail: -0.3pp
- Services: -0.2pp
Policy pulse
The January reading of 104.7 remains above the neutral 100 mark tracked by NIER, indicating continued optimism. The Riksbank does not set a formal target for business confidence, but policymakers monitor this indicator for early signs of economic turning points.Market lens
Swedish equities and the krona were little changed following the release. Investors viewed the modest decline as a normalization after robust late-2025 prints, with no immediate implications for monetary policy or risk appetite.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
January’s 104.7 reading is down from December’s 106.4 and November’s 107.4. The 12-month average stands at 102.2, with the index having dipped as low as 94.8 in June 2025 and peaked at 107.4 in December. Over the past six months, the index has remained above 99.8, reflecting a steady recovery from mid-2025 lows.Comparative benchmarks
Sweden’s business confidence remains stronger than the euro area’s composite indicator, which hovered near 101 in January. The current level is also above the post-pandemic average for Sweden, which was 98.5 from 2021 to 2023.Methodology
The NIER Business Confidence Index aggregates survey responses from manufacturing, construction, retail, and service sectors, using seasonally adjusted diffusion indices. A value above 100 signals net optimism, while below 100 indicates pessimism[1].Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The Business Confidence Index’s retreat from December’s high signals a cooling in sentiment, but the sustained level above 100 highlights underlying optimism. The two-month slide warrants monitoring, yet the broader trend remains constructive for Sweden’s economic outlook.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (25–35%): Index rebounds above 106 by March, driven by export demand and easing input costs.
- Base case (50–60%): Confidence stabilizes between 103 and 105 through Q1, as firms adjust to slower growth but avoid contraction.
- Bearish (10–20%): Index slips below 100 by April if global demand weakens or domestic credit conditions tighten.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected industrial orders and resilient household consumption. Downside risks stem from external shocks, such as euro area stagnation or supply chain disruptions.Data source
All figures are sourced from the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1].Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Muted market reaction reflects confidence in Sweden’s economic fundamentals. The SEK and OMX Stockholm 30 Index both traded sideways after the release, as investors weighed the modest decline against the still-elevated index level.Looking ahead
Business confidence remains above trend, but the two-month slide signals caution. The coming months will test whether Swedish firms can sustain optimism amid shifting global conditions.Key Markets Reacting to Business Confidence
Sweden’s business sentiment readings can influence a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to shifts in the Business Confidence Index, reflecting the broader impact on Swedish markets and beyond.
- AAPL (Stock): Indirect exposure via supply chain and Nordic demand.
- EURSEK (Forex): SEK directionally tracks business sentiment shifts.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Risk sentiment proxy; Swedish confidence moves can influence local crypto flows.
| Year | Business Confidence | EURSEK |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 92.5 | 10.50 |
| 2021 | 98.1 | 10.15 |
| 2022 | 101.3 | 10.70 |
| 2023 | 99.7 | 11.00 |
| 2024 | 102.0 | 11.15 |
| 2025 | 104.3 | 11.00 |
Since 2020, higher Swedish business confidence readings have generally coincided with a stronger krona versus the euro, highlighting the indicator’s relevance for currency markets.
FAQ: Sweden’s Business Confidence Retreats for Second Month, Remains Above Trend
- What is the latest Business Confidence figure for Sweden?
- The January 2026 Business Confidence Index for Sweden is 104.7, down from December’s 106.4.
- What does the current reading mean for Sweden’s economic outlook?
- Despite a two-month decline, the index remains above its 12-month average, signaling continued optimism among Swedish firms.
- How does Sweden’s Business Confidence compare to the euro area?
- Sweden’s index is higher than the euro area’s composite, which was near 101 in January 2026.
Sweden’s business sentiment remains resilient, but the recent pullback warrants close attention in the months ahead.
Updated 2/26/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- National Institute of Economic Research (NIER), Sweden. Business Tendency Survey. Data cross-verified with Sigmanomics database, release 2026-02-26.
The recent trend shows a softening from the late-2025 peak, but sentiment is still well above the June 2025 low of 94.8. The index has not fallen below the neutral threshold since August 2025, underscoring the resilience of Swedish business sentiment.