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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Business Confidence climbed to 109.3% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Sweden Business Confidence climbed to 109.3% in September 2026, up 1.8% from August's 107.5% reading. The reading matched the 107.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 102.79%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 107.67%, vs 103.3% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the highest in 43 months.
Latest Release
109.3
Actual
107
Consensus
107.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.72 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 108.3
Actual: 109.3
Error: -1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Sweden) was reported at 109.3% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 107% by 2.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 107.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 105.61%, ranging from 102.3% to 109.3% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 107.67%, up from the prior three at 104%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.27%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.56%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 101.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.72%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Business Confidence - SE
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About Business Confidence — Sweden
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 109.3 %, consensus 107 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 107.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 106.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.76) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | SE | Employed Persons | 5.292 | 5.423 | 5.4 | 5.35 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | Unemployment Rate | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.35 | Low |