The latest business confidence reading for Sweden (SE) reached 105.80 in November 2025, surpassing the estimate of 104.00 and the previous month’s 104.30. This marks a notable improvement from the 12-month average of approximately 99.50, reflecting a sustained recovery since the low of 93.60 recorded in October 2024. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a positive shift in corporate sentiment amid a complex macroeconomic environment.

Drivers this month

• Improved domestic demand supported by consumer spending (0.40 pp contribution)
• Stabilization in export orders amid easing supply chain disruptions (0.30 pp)
• Moderate wage growth sustaining business optimism (0.20 pp)
• Offset by cautious investment outlook due to geopolitical tensions (-0.10 pp)

Policy pulse

Sweden’s Riksbank has maintained its policy rate steady at 3.75%, aligning with inflation targets near 2%. The business confidence reading sits comfortably above the neutral threshold of 100, suggesting that monetary policy is currently supportive but not overheating the economy.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The SEK/USD currency pair appreciated 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting investor confidence in Sweden’s economic resilience. Swedish 2-year government bond yields rose modestly by 5 basis points, indicating a slight uptick in growth expectations.

Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning the business confidence reading show a mixed but generally positive picture. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 1.20% quarter-on-quarter, supported by robust private consumption and export growth. Inflation has moderated to 2.10% year-on-year, easing pressure on real incomes and business costs.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Riksbank’s cautious stance has kept financial conditions stable. Credit growth remains moderate at 4.50% year-on-year, while lending standards have not tightened significantly. The real policy rate is slightly positive, supporting investment without stoking inflationary pressures.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Sweden’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 1.80% of GDP in 2025, reflecting prudent spending and higher tax revenues. However, government debt remains elevated at 38% of GDP, limiting room for expansive fiscal stimulus. Planned infrastructure investments are expected to support medium-term growth but have yet to significantly impact current business sentiment.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and trade uncertainties with China pose downside risks. Energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions remain concerns, though recent easing has helped improve confidence. Businesses remain watchful of potential shocks that could dampen export demand or increase input costs.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Following the print, the OMX Stockholm 30 index (OMXS30) gained 0.40%, reflecting investor optimism. The Swedish krona (SEK) strengthened against the euro by 0.20%, while short-term bond yields edged higher, signaling expectations of sustained economic growth.

Looking ahead, Sweden’s business confidence trajectory suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook. The balance of risks remains finely poised between supportive domestic fundamentals and external uncertainties.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Continued easing of inflation and stable monetary policy
• Strong export growth driven by EU recovery and tech demand
• Fiscal stimulus focused on green infrastructure boosts investment
• Business confidence rises above 110 by mid-2026

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate GDP growth of 1.00-1.50% annually
• Inflation stabilizes near target, Riksbank maintains rates
• Business confidence remains in the 105-108 range
• Geopolitical risks contained but monitored closely

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Escalation of geopolitical tensions disrupts trade
• Energy price shocks increase costs and reduce margins
• Fiscal tightening amid budget constraints dampens growth
• Business confidence falls below 100, signaling contraction

Sweden’s November 2025 business confidence reading of 105.80 marks a positive milestone in the country’s economic recovery. Supported by stable monetary policy, improving inflation dynamics, and resilient domestic demand, the outlook is constructive. However, vigilance is warranted given external shocks and fiscal limitations. Market participants should monitor upcoming data releases and geopolitical developments closely.

Incorporating data from the Sigmanomics database and cross-referencing with historical trends, this report underscores the nuanced balance of optimism and caution shaping Sweden’s economic landscape.

Key Markets Likely to React to Business Confidence

Business confidence readings in Sweden typically influence equity, currency, and bond markets. The OMX Stockholm 30 (OMXS30) often tracks shifts in sentiment closely, reflecting corporate earnings expectations. The SEK/USD currency pair reacts to changes in economic outlook and monetary policy signals. Swedish government bonds (SE10Y) adjust yields based on growth and inflation prospects. Additionally, the EUR/SEK forex pair is sensitive to relative economic performance within the Eurozone. Finally, the crypto market, represented here by BTCUSD, occasionally responds to risk sentiment shifts linked to macroeconomic data.

• OMXS30 – Sweden’s main equity index, closely tied to business sentiment.
• SEKUSD – Swedish krona vs. US dollar, sensitive to economic data.
• EURSEK – Euro vs. Swedish krona, reflects regional economic divergence.
• SE10Y – Swedish 10-year government bond yield, gauges growth and inflation expectations.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin vs. US dollar, proxy for global risk appetite.

FAQs

What is Sweden’s Business Confidence index?

The Business Confidence index measures firms’ optimism about economic conditions, including sales, investment, and hiring plans.

How does the Business Confidence index affect the Swedish economy?

Higher confidence typically signals stronger economic activity, influencing investment, consumption, and policy decisions.

What factors influence Sweden’s Business Confidence?

Key drivers include inflation trends, monetary and fiscal policy, global trade conditions, and geopolitical risks.

Key takeaway: Sweden’s business confidence is on a firm upward path, reflecting resilient fundamentals but tempered by external uncertainties. Monitoring this index offers valuable insight into the country’s near-term economic trajectory.