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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Business Confidence climbed to 110.7% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Sweden Business Confidence climbed to 110.7% in October 2026, up 1.5% from September's 109.2% reading. The reading matched the 108.5% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 103.64%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 108.67%, vs 104.8% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the highest in 43 months.
Latest Release
110.7
Actual
108.5
Consensus
109.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 109.55
Actual: 110.7
Error: -1.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Sweden) was reported at 110.7% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 108.5% by 2.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 109.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 106.53%, ranging from 102.3% to 110.7% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 109.13%, up from the prior three at 103.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.78%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.67%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 102.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - SE
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About Business Confidence — Sweden
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 110.7 %, consensus 108.5 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 109.3 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 107.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.76) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | SE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 58.1 | 57.4 | 57.40 | Low | |