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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Business Confidence fell to 103.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Sweden Business Confidence fell to 103.3% in May 2026, down 0.2% from April's 103.5% reading. The reading matched the 102.0% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 8.5%. The reading is in the 82nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
103.3
Actual
102
Consensus
103.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.38 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 102.15
Actual: 103.3
Error: -1.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.89 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Sweden) was reported at 103.3% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 102% by 1.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 103.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 101.16%, ranging from 94.8% to 106.4% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 104%, up from the prior three at 100.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.82%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.57%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/SEK (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Riksbank Rate Decision (Jun 17) and Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Business Confidence - SE
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About Business Confidence — Sweden
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 103.3 %, consensus 102 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 103.3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 102.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/SEK (Bullish USD, r=0.89) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.