Singapore’s November 2025 Balance of Trade: A Stronger Surplus Amid Global Uncertainties
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Singapore’s balance of trade (BoT) for November 2025 recorded a surplus of SGD 7.25 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of SGD 5.20 billion and the previous month’s SGD 5.95 billion. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects a robust export performance amid a complex global economic backdrop.
Drivers this month
- Electronics exports rose 8.50% MoM, benefiting from semiconductor demand recovery.
- Pharmaceutical shipments increased 6.20%, supported by new product launches.
- Oil and petrochemical exports stabilized after recent volatility.
- Imports grew moderately by 2.10%, reflecting steady domestic consumption.
Policy pulse
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintains a cautious stance, balancing inflation control with growth support. The stronger trade surplus provides some buffer against external shocks but does not yet warrant easing monetary policy. Fiscal measures continue to focus on innovation and infrastructure investment to sustain export competitiveness.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SGD appreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, reflecting improved risk sentiment. Equity markets showed mild gains in export-related sectors.
The November BoT figure of SGD 7.25 billion marks a 21.80% increase from October’s SGD 5.95 billion and stands above the 12-month average of SGD 7.00 billion. Historically, Singapore’s trade surplus has fluctuated between SGD 5 billion and SGD 14 billion, with the May 2025 peak at SGD 14.20 billion driven by inventory restocking and global demand spikes.
Historical comparisons
- Compared to November 2024, the surplus is up 17%, indicating resilient export growth despite global headwinds.
- The May 2025 peak of SGD 14.20 billion remains an outlier, with recent months normalizing around SGD 6-7 billion.
- October’s dip to SGD 5.95 billion reflected supply chain constraints and softer demand in key markets.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
MAS’s policy band remains unchanged, with inflation hovering near 3.50%. The stronger trade surplus supports the SGD’s stability and reduces external vulnerability. Financial conditions are moderately tight, with credit growth steady and bond yields reflecting cautious optimism.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Singapore’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with ongoing investments in digital infrastructure and green technology. The government budget surplus is expected to narrow slightly as stimulus measures continue, but trade strength helps maintain fiscal space.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SGD/USD rose 0.30%, reflecting confidence in Singapore’s external sector. The 2-year government bond yield increased by 5 basis points, while equity markets favored export-heavy sectors. This reaction underscores the market’s positive view of Singapore’s trade resilience.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in Singapore’s balance of trade after a two-month decline. The November print signals a potential stabilization phase, driven by diversified export growth and steady import demand. This trend supports a cautiously optimistic macroeconomic outlook.
Looking ahead, Singapore’s trade surplus trajectory will depend on global demand, supply chain stability, and geopolitical developments. The following scenarios outline potential outcomes:
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (30% probability): Global demand rebounds sharply, supply chains normalize, and Singapore’s exports grow 10% YoY, pushing BoT above SGD 8.50 billion monthly.
- Base (50% probability): Moderate global growth with intermittent disruptions keeps BoT near current levels, averaging SGD 7.00-7.50 billion monthly.
- Bearish (20% probability): Escalating geopolitical tensions and supply chain shocks reduce exports, shrinking BoT below SGD 5 billion.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Heightened tensions in Asia-Pacific and trade policy uncertainties could disrupt key export markets. Energy price volatility and inflationary pressures remain risks to import costs and trade margins.
Structural & long-run trends
Singapore’s ongoing diversification into digital services, biotech, and green tech exports supports long-term trade resilience. Investments in port infrastructure and free trade agreements further enhance competitiveness.
Singapore’s November 2025 balance of trade print reflects a robust external sector, beating expectations and signaling export recovery. While global uncertainties persist, the country’s diversified trade base and prudent policy mix provide a solid foundation. Market reactions suggest confidence but also caution amid evolving risks. Monitoring geopolitical developments and supply chain dynamics will be critical for sustaining trade momentum.
Overall, the data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for Singapore’s macroeconomy, with balanced upside and downside risks. Policymakers and investors should remain vigilant but encouraged by the resilience demonstrated in this latest release.
Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
The balance of trade is a key driver of Singapore’s currency and equity markets. The following tradable symbols historically track trade data closely due to their exposure to export demand, currency sensitivity, or commodity price linkage:
- S68.SI – Singapore Exchange-listed export-oriented tech firm, sensitive to trade flows.
- USDSGD – Currency pair directly reflecting SGD strength linked to trade surplus.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often correlates inversely with risk sentiment influenced by trade data.
- DBS.SI – Major Singapore bank with earnings tied to trade finance volumes.
- EURSGD – Euro-SGD pair reflecting trade relations with Europe.
Indicator vs. USDSGD Since 2020
Since 2020, Singapore’s balance of trade surplus has shown a strong inverse correlation with the USDSGD exchange rate. Periods of rising trade surpluses coincide with SGD appreciation against the USD, reflecting capital inflows and improved external accounts. This relationship underscores the importance of trade data for currency traders and policymakers alike.
FAQs
- What is the significance of Singapore’s balance of trade?
- The balance of trade measures the difference between exports and imports. A surplus indicates strong external demand and supports economic growth and currency strength.
- How does the balance of trade affect Singapore’s monetary policy?
- A rising trade surplus can strengthen the SGD and reduce inflationary pressures, influencing MAS’s policy stance on exchange rate management.
- What external risks could impact Singapore’s trade outlook?
- Geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and global demand slowdowns are key risks that could reduce export volumes and trade surplus.
Takeaway: Singapore’s November 2025 balance of trade rebound signals export resilience amid global uncertainties, supporting a cautiously optimistic macro outlook.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
November’s balance of trade at SGD 7.25 billion outpaces October’s SGD 5.95 billion and exceeds the 12-month average of SGD 7.00 billion. This rebound follows a dip in September (SGD 5.08 billion) and October, signaling renewed export momentum.
Exports led the improvement, particularly in electronics and pharmaceuticals, offsetting moderate import growth. The data suggests Singapore’s trade sector is regaining strength despite ongoing global supply chain challenges and geopolitical tensions.