Singapore CPI November 2025: Inflation Accelerates Amid Mixed Macro Signals
Key Takeaways: Singapore’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.20% year-on-year in November 2025, up from 0.70% in October, marking the highest inflation print in six months. Core inflation pressures are building, driven by shelter and food costs, while monetary policy remains cautious amid external uncertainties. Financial markets showed muted initial reactions, reflecting balanced risks. The outlook hinges on global demand, supply chain normalization, and geopolitical tensions.
Table of Contents
Singapore’s CPI for November 2025 increased to 1.20% YoY, a notable acceleration from 0.70% in October, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database[1]. This rise marks the highest inflation rate since May 2025 (0.90%) and signals renewed upward pressure on prices amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed approximately 0.18 percentage points (pp) to the CPI increase.
- Food inflation rose by 0.15 pp, reflecting supply chain adjustments and seasonal demand.
- Transport and utilities remained stable, contributing marginally to the overall rise.
Policy pulse
The 1.20% inflation rate remains below the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) informal target range of 2%–3%, but the upward trend may prompt closer monitoring. The MAS has maintained a neutral policy stance since mid-2025, balancing inflation risks against growth concerns.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SGD/USD currency pair showed a mild appreciation of 0.10% within the first hour post-release, while Singapore government bond yields remained largely unchanged. Breakeven inflation rates edged slightly higher, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation persistence.
Singapore’s CPI growth of 1.20% YoY in November 2025 compares with a 12-month average inflation rate of 0.75% over the past year, indicating a clear acceleration. Month-on-month (MoM), the CPI rose by 0.50%, the strongest monthly gain since March 2025.
Historical comparisons
- November 2025’s 1.20% YoY inflation is the highest since May 2025’s 0.90%.
- Compared to November 2024, when inflation was near zero, the current reading reflects a significant upward shift.
- Core inflation excluding volatile food and energy components rose 0.90% YoY, up from 0.50% in October.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The MAS continues to maintain a neutral stance, with no immediate changes to the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with short-term interest rates stable and credit growth steady.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Singapore’s fiscal policy remains supportive, with ongoing infrastructure investments and targeted subsidies cushioning inflation’s impact on households. The government’s budget for FY2025 projects a modest surplus, allowing room for continued fiscal flexibility.
Chart insight
The chart below illustrates the steady rise in Singapore’s CPI since mid-2025, with a notable uptick in November. The trend suggests inflation is moving away from the low, stable levels seen in early 2025, signaling potential challenges for monetary policy and consumer purchasing power.
This chart shows Singapore’s inflation trending upward after a period of moderation. The acceleration in shelter and food prices is reversing the prior three-month decline, indicating inflationary pressures are broadening and may persist into early 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SGD/USD appreciated 0.10%, while 2-year government bond yields remained flat. Breakeven inflation rates increased by 5 basis points, reflecting market expectations of sustained inflation.
Looking ahead, Singapore’s inflation trajectory depends on several key factors, including global commodity prices, supply chain normalization, and domestic demand conditions. The recent acceleration suggests inflation risks are rising but remain manageable.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global supply chains improve rapidly, easing food and energy costs.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth without fueling inflation.
- Inflation stabilizes near 1.00%–1.50% in early 2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation remains elevated around 1.20%–1.50% YoY through Q1 2026.
- MAS maintains a neutral policy stance, monitoring inflation closely.
- Moderate wage growth supports consumer spending without overheating.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade, pushing up import costs.
- Energy prices spike, driving headline inflation above 2.50%.
- MAS tightens policy aggressively, risking slower growth.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Asia and global trade uncertainties pose downside risks to inflation and growth. Any escalation could disrupt supply chains and commodity prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures.
Singapore’s November 2025 CPI print signals a turning point in inflation dynamics. The acceleration to 1.20% YoY reflects broadening price pressures, particularly in shelter and food. While still below MAS’s informal target, the trend warrants close monitoring amid external uncertainties and evolving domestic conditions.
Structural & long-run trends
Structural factors such as urban housing demand and demographic shifts continue to underpin inflationary pressures in Singapore. Long-run trends suggest moderate inflation persistence, with MAS’s policy framework well-positioned to respond flexibly.
Financial markets & sentiment
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. The muted bond yield response and slight currency appreciation indicate confidence in MAS’s ability to manage inflation without disrupting growth.
Key Markets Likely to React to CPI
The Singapore CPI release typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to inflation and monetary policy expectations. Key instruments to watch include the Singapore dollar, local government bonds, and regional equities.
- SGDUSD – Directly impacted by inflation-driven monetary policy shifts.
- STI – Singapore’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to economic growth and inflation.
- D05.SI – CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, affected by real estate inflation trends.
- USDSGD – Inverse of SGDUSD, reflecting currency strength.
- BTCUSD – Crypto asset often viewed as an inflation hedge, reacting to macro shifts.
FAQs
- What is the latest CPI reading for Singapore?
- The November 2025 CPI rose 1.20% year-on-year, up from 0.70% in October.
- How does Singapore’s CPI impact monetary policy?
- Rising CPI pressures may prompt MAS to adjust its exchange rate policy band to manage inflation risks.
- What are the main drivers of inflation in Singapore?
- Shelter and food costs are the primary contributors to recent inflation increases.
Takeaway: Singapore’s inflation is accelerating but remains manageable, requiring balanced policy vigilance amid global uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 CPI reading of 1.20% YoY marks a sharp increase from October’s 0.70% and exceeds the 12-month average of 0.75%. This acceleration is driven primarily by rising shelter and food costs, which have reversed a three-month period of subdued inflation.
MoM inflation of 0.50% is the strongest since March 2025, indicating that price pressures are gaining momentum. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.90% YoY, up from 0.50% last month, underscoring broadening inflationary pressures.