Singapore’s current account surplus for November 2025 was reported at SGD 33.39 billion, slightly below the market estimate of SGD 35.90 billion but above the previous quarter’s SGD 28.81 billion low. This figure reflects a resilient external position despite a complex global backdrop marked by monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions. The surplus remains a key pillar supporting Singapore’s macroeconomic stability and currency strength.

Drivers this month

• Trade balance remained robust with exports of electronics and pharmaceuticals holding steady.
• Investment income contributed positively, buoyed by portfolio inflows and steady returns from foreign assets.
• Services deficit widened slightly due to weaker tourism and business travel amid cautious global demand.

Policy pulse

The current account surplus remains comfortably above the 12-month average of SGD 32.50 billion, suggesting that Singapore’s external sector is weathering global monetary tightening. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) continues to manage the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) band cautiously to balance inflation and growth objectives.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: SGD/USD traded flat in the first hour post-release, reflecting market acceptance of the slightly softer surplus. Short-term bond yields edged up 5 basis points, signaling mild risk repricing.

Singapore’s current account surplus remains a critical macroeconomic indicator, reflecting the country’s trade competitiveness and external income flows. The November 2025 reading of SGD 33.39 billion compares favorably to the 2024 November figure of SGD 34.14 billion and the August 2025 peak of SGD 34.80 billion. The slight dip is consistent with seasonal patterns and global demand fluctuations.

Trade and investment income

Goods exports, especially in electronics and precision engineering, sustained the trade surplus at approximately SGD 45 billion. Investment income, including dividends and interest from overseas assets, contributed around SGD 10 billion, offsetting a services deficit of about SGD 22 billion. This balance underscores Singapore’s role as a global trade and financial hub.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

MAS’s gradual tightening stance since mid-2024 has led to higher short-term interest rates, influencing capital flows and the current account. The SGD NEER has appreciated by 1.20% over the past quarter, supporting import cost containment but potentially dampening export competitiveness.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Singapore’s fiscal prudence, with a budget surplus of 1.50% of GDP in FY2025, complements the external surplus by maintaining macro stability. Government investments in infrastructure and innovation continue to bolster long-term growth potential.

Seasonal factors and global supply chain adjustments explain some of the quarter-on-quarter softness. However, the sustained surplus above SGD 30 billion signals ongoing strength in export sectors and investment income. The chart below illustrates the steady recovery from early 2025 lows and the moderation from mid-year peaks.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: SGD bond yields rose modestly by 5 basis points post-release, reflecting cautious optimism. The SGD/USD pair remained stable, indicating balanced market sentiment.

Looking ahead, Singapore’s current account surplus faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The global economic environment remains uncertain, with inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions influencing trade and capital flows.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global demand recovers faster than expected, boosting exports.
• Investment income rises due to higher returns on foreign assets.
• MAS maintains a stable exchange rate policy, supporting trade competitiveness.
• Surplus could exceed SGD 36 billion by mid-2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate global growth with persistent inflation.
• Trade growth slows but remains positive.
• Current account surplus stabilizes around SGD 33–34 billion.
• Monetary policy tightening continues cautiously.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical shocks disrupt trade routes and supply chains.
• Global recession pressures exports and investment income.
• SGD appreciation hurts export competitiveness.
• Surplus could fall below SGD 30 billion, risking external imbalances.

Singapore’s current account surplus remains a cornerstone of its macroeconomic strength. The November 2025 reading of SGD 33.39 billion, while slightly below expectations, confirms the resilience of the external sector amid tightening global financial conditions and geopolitical risks. Continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms will be essential to sustain this position.

Investors and policymakers should monitor trade dynamics, investment income flows, and MAS’s monetary stance closely. The balanced risks suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for Singapore’s external accounts in the near term.

Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account

Singapore’s current account surplus influences currency strength, bond yields, and equity markets sensitive to trade and capital flows. The following tradable symbols historically track or react to shifts in Singapore’s external balance:

• SGDUSD – The primary currency pair reflecting Singapore dollar strength linked to current account health.
• STI – Singapore’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to trade and investment income trends.
• BTCUSD – A proxy for global risk sentiment, which can influence capital flows affecting Singapore’s external accounts.
• USDSGD – Inverse of SGDUSD, useful for hedging currency exposure related to current account shifts.
• DBS – Singapore’s largest bank, whose earnings are linked to trade finance and investment flows.

FAQs

What is the significance of Singapore’s current account surplus?

The current account surplus reflects Singapore’s net earnings from trade and investment, indicating external economic strength and currency support.

How does the current account affect Singapore’s monetary policy?

A strong surplus supports the SGD and allows MAS to manage inflation and growth through exchange rate policy without excessive volatility.

What are the risks to Singapore’s current account outlook?

Risks include global demand shocks, geopolitical tensions, and currency appreciation that could reduce export competitiveness.

Takeaway: Singapore’s current account surplus remains robust but faces headwinds from global uncertainties. Balanced policy and structural resilience will be key to sustaining external stability.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.