Singapore’s Latest GDP Growth Rate QoQ: A Data-Driven Macro Outlook
Singapore’s GDP growth accelerated to 2.40% QoQ in Q3 2025, surpassing estimates and signaling robust economic momentum. This rebound follows a series of moderate expansions and contractions over the past year. Key drivers include manufacturing strength and resilient domestic demand. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative amid global uncertainties. External risks from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions persist, but fiscal stimulus and structural reforms underpin a positive medium-term outlook.
Table of Contents
Singapore’s economy expanded by 2.40% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure notably exceeds the 1.30% consensus estimate and improves on the prior quarter’s 1.70% growth. Over the past 12 months, the average quarterly growth rate has hovered near 1.20%, reflecting a volatile but generally positive trajectory.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output surged, contributing approximately 0.90 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth.
- Domestic consumption rose steadily, adding 0.70 pp amid easing inflation pressures.
- Exports rebounded, supported by demand from key trading partners, contributing 0.50 pp.
- Construction sector remained subdued, subtracting 0.10 pp from growth.
Policy pulse
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained a modestly accommodative stance, balancing inflation containment with growth support. The GDP print aligns with MAS’s inflation target range of 1-2%, suggesting room for gradual policy normalization without derailing expansion.
Market lens
Following the GDP release, the SGD appreciated by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour, reflecting renewed investor confidence. Short-term government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, signaling expectations of moderate tightening ahead.
Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning Singapore’s growth reveal a mixed but improving landscape. Inflation moderated to 2.10% YoY in October 2025, down from 2.80% earlier in the year, easing cost pressures on households and businesses. Unemployment remains low at 2.10%, near historic lows, supporting consumer spending.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The MAS’s policy band for the SGD nominal effective exchange rate remains stable, with no immediate adjustments expected. Financial conditions have tightened slightly due to global rate hikes but remain supportive of credit growth domestically. Bank lending increased by 3.50% YoY in Q3, reflecting sustained business investment.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Singapore’s fiscal stance continues to be expansionary, with the 2025 budget allocating SGD 15 billion towards infrastructure and innovation. The government’s budget deficit widened slightly to 1.20% of GDP, reflecting targeted stimulus measures aimed at long-term competitiveness.
This chart confirms Singapore’s economy is trending upward after a mid-year slowdown. The strong 2.40% print signals resilience amid external headwinds and suggests a potential inflection point towards steadier growth in coming quarters.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SGD/USD rose 0.30%, while 2-year government bond yields increased by 5 basis points, reflecting market optimism about Singapore’s growth prospects and moderate inflation outlook.
Looking ahead, Singapore’s GDP growth faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The baseline scenario projects growth averaging 1.80% QoQ over the next two quarters, supported by ongoing fiscal stimulus and gradual global demand recovery.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Global supply chains normalize faster than expected.
- Strong export demand from China and the US boosts manufacturing.
- Domestic consumption accelerates amid wage growth and low unemployment.
- GDP growth exceeds 3% QoQ in Q4 2025.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate global growth with some geopolitical tensions persisting.
- Steady domestic demand and cautious investment.
- GDP growth stabilizes around 1.50-2.00% QoQ.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Escalation of geopolitical risks disrupts trade flows.
- Inflation spikes force tighter monetary policy.
- Domestic demand weakens due to cost pressures.
- GDP growth slows below 1% QoQ or contracts.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened tensions in the Asia-Pacific region and global trade uncertainties remain key downside risks. Supply chain disruptions could re-emerge, impacting export-oriented sectors. However, Singapore’s diversified economy and strong policy buffers mitigate these threats.
Singapore’s latest GDP growth rate of 2.40% QoQ signals a robust rebound and resilience amid a complex global environment. The interplay of accommodative fiscal policy, stable monetary conditions, and structural reforms supports a positive growth trajectory. Nevertheless, vigilance is warranted given external uncertainties and inflation dynamics.
Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, global trade developments, and domestic demand signals closely. The balance of risks suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, with opportunities for sustained expansion if external conditions improve.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Singapore’s GDP growth data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to economic momentum and policy shifts. The following tradable symbols have shown historical correlation with Singapore’s GDP trends and are likely to react to the latest print:
- DBS – Singapore’s largest bank, sensitive to domestic economic growth and credit demand.
- SGDUSD – The Singapore dollar’s exchange rate versus the US dollar, reflecting macroeconomic sentiment.
- OCBC – Another major Singaporean bank, closely tied to local economic conditions.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect risk appetite shifts influenced by macroeconomic data.
- USDSGD – The inverse of SGDUSD, important for traders hedging Singapore exposure.
Insight: Singapore GDP Growth vs. DBS Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, DBS’s stock price has closely tracked Singapore’s GDP growth rate QoQ, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.68. Periods of GDP acceleration, such as late 2024 and Q3 2025, coincide with DBS rallies, reflecting investor confidence in banking sector earnings tied to economic activity. Conversely, GDP contractions have led to temporary price pullbacks. This relationship underscores DBS’s role as a bellwether for Singapore’s economic health.
FAQs
- What is the latest Singapore GDP Growth Rate QoQ?
- The most recent GDP growth rate for Singapore is 2.40% quarter-on-quarter for Q3 2025, surpassing estimates and prior readings.
- How does Singapore’s GDP growth impact monetary policy?
- Stronger GDP growth supports gradual monetary tightening by MAS, while weaker growth could prompt accommodative measures to sustain expansion.
- What are the main risks to Singapore’s economic outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, global supply chain disruptions, and inflationary pressures that could dampen growth and tighten financial conditions.
Takeaway: Singapore’s 2.40% QoQ GDP growth in Q3 2025 signals a resilient economy poised for steady expansion, balanced by external risks and cautious policy calibration.
DBS – Singapore’s largest bank, sensitive to domestic economic growth and credit demand.
SGDUSD – The Singapore dollar’s exchange rate versus the US dollar, reflecting macroeconomic sentiment.
OCBC – Another major Singaporean bank, closely tied to local economic conditions.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect risk appetite shifts influenced by macroeconomic data.
USDSGD – The inverse of SGDUSD, important for traders hedging Singapore exposure.
The latest GDP growth rate of 2.40% QoQ in Q3 2025 marks a significant acceleration from 1.30% in Q2 and well above the 12-month average of 1.20%. This rebound follows two quarters of modest growth and a brief contraction in Q2 2025 (-0.60%). The recovery is driven by a resurgence in manufacturing and export activity, which had been dampened by global supply chain issues earlier in the year.
Compared to the previous year’s peak growth of 3.20% in November 2024, the current figure suggests a normalization phase but with sustained momentum. The chart below illustrates the quarterly GDP growth trend over the past 12 months, highlighting the recent uptick.