Singapore’s GDP growth rate for November 2025 registered at 4.20% year-on-year, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database[1]. This figure notably exceeded market expectations of 2.90%, signaling a stronger-than-anticipated economic momentum. However, it remains below the previous month’s 4.70%, indicating some moderation after a period of rapid expansion.

Drivers this month

• Robust manufacturing output, particularly in electronics and precision engineering sectors.
• Steady domestic consumption supported by wage growth and employment stability.
• Resilient export performance despite global trade headwinds.

Policy pulse

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained a cautiously accommodative stance, balancing inflation concerns with growth support. The GDP print aligns with the central bank’s inflation target range of 2–3%, suggesting no immediate policy tightening is necessary.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The SGD strengthened modestly against the USD, with the USD/SGD pair declining 0.15% within the first hour post-release. Short-term bond yields edged higher, reflecting improved growth expectations.

The 4.20% GDP growth rate for November 2025 compares favorably against the 12-month average of approximately 4.00%, underscoring Singapore’s steady economic expansion despite global uncertainties. Historical data from the Sigmanomics database shows a peak of 5.40% in November 2024 and a trough of 2.90% in October 2025, highlighting recent volatility linked to external shocks.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

MAS’s policy framework, which targets the SGD nominal effective exchange rate, remains accommodative. Inflation pressures have moderated to 2.50% YoY, allowing room for growth-supportive measures. Financial conditions are stable, with credit growth steady at 5.10% YoY and interbank rates near historic lows.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Singapore’s fiscal stance continues to be expansionary, with the 2025 budget allocating SGD 15 billion towards infrastructure and digital transformation. The government’s prudent debt management keeps the debt-to-GDP ratio below 130%, supporting sustainable growth.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region and supply chain disruptions pose downside risks. However, Singapore’s diversified trade portfolio and strategic port infrastructure mitigate some vulnerabilities.

Drivers this month

• Manufacturing contributed 1.20 percentage points (pp) to growth, led by electronics exports.
• Services sector added 1.50 pp, driven by finance and professional services.
• Construction sector remained flat, contributing 0.10 pp.

Policy pulse

The MAS’s policy stance remains neutral, with no immediate changes expected given the balanced growth-inflation dynamics. The GDP print supports the current monetary trajectory.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: SGD appreciated 0.15% versus USD, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting improved growth sentiment.

Looking ahead, Singapore’s GDP growth trajectory faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline forecast anticipates growth stabilizing around 3.50–4.00% YoY over the next two quarters, supported by robust exports and domestic demand.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global trade tensions ease, boosting export volumes.
• Technology sector innovation drives productivity gains.
• Fiscal stimulus accelerates infrastructure investment.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate global growth with manageable inflation.
• Steady domestic consumption and investment.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative but vigilant.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Escalation of geopolitical risks disrupts trade.
• Supply chain bottlenecks persist, dampening manufacturing.
• Inflation spikes force tighter monetary policy.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Singapore’s long-term growth is underpinned by digital transformation, green economy initiatives, and human capital development. These structural shifts will support sustainable GDP growth above regional peers.

Singapore’s November 2025 GDP growth rate of 4.20% YoY signals a resilient economy navigating global uncertainties. The rebound from October’s slowdown underscores the strength of export and service sectors. Monetary and fiscal policies remain aligned to support steady expansion while managing inflation risks. External geopolitical and supply chain challenges warrant close monitoring. Overall, Singapore’s diversified economy and prudent policy framework position it well for sustained growth.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY

Singapore’s GDP growth rate influences multiple asset classes, notably equities, currency pairs, and fixed income. Market participants closely watch these indicators to gauge economic health and policy direction.

• DBS – Singapore’s largest bank, sensitive to economic growth and interest rate changes.
• USDSGD – The USD/SGD currency pair reacts to growth and monetary policy shifts.
• SGX – Singapore Exchange, reflecting broader market sentiment tied to economic performance.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often correlates inversely with traditional market risk sentiment.
• EURSGD – Euro to SGD pair, sensitive to regional growth differentials and trade flows.

Insight: Singapore GDP Growth vs. DBS Stock Performance Since 2020

Since 2020, DBS stock price has closely tracked Singapore’s GDP growth trends. Periods of GDP acceleration, such as late 2024’s 5.40% peak, corresponded with DBS gains of over 15%. Conversely, GDP slowdowns like October 2025’s 2.90% dip saw DBS underperform by 8%. This correlation underscores DBS’s role as a barometer of Singapore’s economic health and financial sector outlook.

FAQs

What is the latest Singapore GDP Growth Rate YoY?

The latest GDP growth rate for Singapore is 4.20% year-on-year as of November 2025.

How does Singapore’s GDP growth impact monetary policy?

Stronger GDP growth supports a cautious monetary policy stance, balancing inflation control with growth support.

What are the main risks to Singapore’s economic growth?

Key risks include geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and potential inflation spikes prompting tighter policy.

Final Takeaway: Singapore’s economy remains resilient with a 4.20% GDP growth rate, supported by exports and domestic demand. Vigilant policy and external risk management will be crucial to sustaining momentum.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/21/25