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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SingaporeSingapore GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 5.4% in July 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Singapore GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 5.4% in July 2026, released October 2026, down 0.8% from June's 6.2% reading. The print exceeded the 5.0% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 5.07%. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.4
Actual
5
Consensus
6.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.56 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5
Actual: 5.4
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Singapore) was reported at 5.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.69%, ranging from 4.2% to 6.9% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.67%, down from the prior three at 6.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.75%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.71%). In October readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 4.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/SGD (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.56%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - SG
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Singapore
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.4 %, consensus 5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 5.9 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 5.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - SG Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | SG | Bank Lending | 978.8 | 966.4 | 909.5 | 944.15 | Low |
| 02:30 | SG | Unemployment Rate | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | SG | Business Confidence | 12 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 13:00 | SG | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.7 | 51.8 | 51.80 | Low | |