Singapore GDP Growth Moderates to 2.1% in January, Still Outpaces Trend
Singapore’s economy posted a 2.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) for January 2026, according to official data released February 26. This marks a slowdown from December’s 2.6% pace, but growth remains above the 12-month average. The latest reading continues a volatile trend seen throughout 2025, as external demand and domestic resilience shape the outlook.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Services: +0.9 percentage points
- Manufacturing: +0.7 percentage points
- Construction: +0.3 percentage points
Policy pulse
At 2.1%, January’s GDP growth remains above the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s medium-term trend estimate of 1.5%–2.0%[1]. The central bank has maintained a neutral policy stance, citing balanced risks.
Market lens
SGD strengthened modestly after the release, reflecting confidence in Singapore’s economic resilience. Equity markets responded with muted gains, as investors weighed the slower pace of expansion against ongoing global uncertainties. The GDP print, while softer than December’s, signals continued momentum in key sectors.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: 2.1%
- December 2025: 2.6%
- November 2025: 2.4%
- October 2025: 5.4%
- August–September 2025: 1.4% (each month)
- April 2025: -0.8%
Trend analysis
Growth has moderated from the October 2025 high of 5.4%, but remains well above the negative readings seen in April (-0.8%) and May (-0.6%). The 12-month average stands at 1.9%, with January’s figure outpacing this benchmark.
Market lens
Bond yields held steady as investors digested the data. The GDP trajectory suggests Singapore’s economy is weathering global headwinds, with domestic demand providing a buffer against external volatility.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: Sustained growth above 2.0% (30% probability)
- Base: Growth stabilizes near 1.5%–2.0% (55% probability)
- Bearish: Slippage below 1.0% amid global slowdown (15% probability)
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected services exports and resilient domestic consumption. Downside risks stem from global trade disruptions and tighter financial conditions. The Monetary Authority of Singapore continues to monitor inflation and external demand closely.
Market lens
Derivatives markets priced in limited volatility post-release. Investors appear to view the GDP moderation as a normalization rather than a reversal, with Singapore’s diversified economy offering some insulation from global shocks.
Closing Thoughts
Summary takeaways
- Singapore’s GDP expanded 2.1% QoQ in January, above the 12-month trend.
- Growth moderated from December’s 2.6%, but core sectors remain robust.
- Market reaction was measured, with SGD and equities showing modest gains.
- Risks remain balanced as policymakers monitor global and domestic developments.
Market lens
Singapore’s economic trajectory remains constructive, with volatility easing and fundamentals intact. The GDP data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for the months ahead.
Key Markets Reacting to Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Singapore’s GDP print influences a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies and crypto. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, have shown sensitivity to Singapore’s economic data. Each reflects a unique channel through which GDP trends impact global portfolios.
- AAPL: Apple’s Asia-Pacific supply chain exposure makes it responsive to Singapore’s growth signals.
- USDJPY: The yen often reacts to shifts in Asian growth momentum, including Singapore’s GDP.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s risk sentiment correlation can amplify moves around major Asian economic releases.
| Year | SG GDP QoQ (%) | AAPL (YoY %) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -13.2 | 80.7 |
| 2021 | 3.6 | 34.0 |
| 2022 | 4.3 | -26.8 |
| 2023 | 1.1 | 48.2 |
| 2024 | 2.0 | 48.3 |
| 2025 | 2.4 | 49.0 |
Periods of above-trend GDP in Singapore have often coincided with stronger AAPL performance, highlighting the tech sector’s leverage to Asian demand.
FAQ
- What is the latest Gross Domestic Product QoQ figure for Singapore?
- Singapore’s GDP grew 2.1% quarter-on-quarter in January 2026, moderating from December’s 2.6% pace.
- How does Singapore’s GDP growth compare to its 12-month average?
- The January reading of 2.1% is above the 12-month average of 1.9%, signaling continued economic resilience.
- What sectors drove Singapore’s GDP growth this month?
- Services and manufacturing were the main contributors, adding 0.9 and 0.7 percentage points respectively to the overall figure.
Singapore’s GDP growth remains above trend, with core sectors providing stability despite global volatility.
Updated 2/26/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Monetary Authority of Singapore, Macroeconomic Review, October 2025.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Singapore GDP QoQ, 2025–2026.
- Singapore Department of Statistics, Quarterly GDP Releases, 2025–2026.
January’s 2.1% QoQ GDP growth compares to December’s 2.6% and a 12-month average of 1.9%. The latest reading marks the third consecutive month above trend, following a sharp rebound from October’s 5.4% surge and the negative territory earlier in 2025.
Volatility remains a defining feature of Singapore’s GDP path, with swings from -0.8% in April 2025 to 7.8% in early January 2026. The current print signals a normalization after outsized gains, but momentum persists in core sectors.