Singapore Gross Domestic Product YoY: November 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Singapore’s latest GDP YoY growth came in at 4.20%, slightly below October’s 4.50% but well above the 12-month average of 3.90%. This signals resilient economic momentum despite global headwinds. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative amid moderate inflation. External risks from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions persist. Financial markets showed muted initial reactions, reflecting balanced investor sentiment. Structural shifts toward digitalization and sustainability continue to underpin long-term growth prospects.
Table of Contents
Singapore’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) year-on-year (YoY) growth for November 2025 was reported at 4.20%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure marks a slight deceleration from October’s 4.50% but remains robust compared to the 12-month average of 3.90%. The data covers the entire Singapore economy and reflects nominal GDP growth adjusted for seasonal factors.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output growth moderated but remained positive at 3.50% YoY.
- Services sector expanded by 4.80%, led by finance and information technology.
- Construction activity rebounded, contributing 0.40 percentage points (pp) to overall growth.
Policy pulse
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained a modestly tight monetary stance, balancing inflation concerns with growth support. The GDP reading aligns with MAS’s inflation target range of 2-3%, suggesting no immediate policy shifts are necessary.
Market lens
Following the GDP release, the SGD/USD currency pair showed a mild appreciation of 0.15%, while 2-year government bond yields edged up by 5 basis points. Equity markets, represented by the STI index, remained largely unchanged in the first hour, reflecting a wait-and-see approach by investors.
The latest GDP growth of 4.20% YoY compares favorably with historical data from the Sigmanomics database. For context, Singapore’s GDP growth was 5.00% in February 2025, dipped to 2.90% in October, and averaged 3.90% over the past year. This volatility reflects external shocks and domestic policy adjustments.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
MAS’s policy band for the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) remains on a slight appreciation path. Interest rates have stabilized after incremental hikes earlier this year. Financial conditions are moderately tight but supportive of investment and consumption.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
The Singapore government continues its prudent fiscal stance, with a budget surplus projected at 1.50% of GDP for FY2025. Targeted stimulus measures focus on innovation, green infrastructure, and workforce upskilling, which underpin medium-term growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global trade tensions and supply chain disruptions remain key risks. The ongoing geopolitical friction in the Asia-Pacific region could dampen export demand. However, Singapore’s diversified trade portfolio and strategic partnerships provide resilience.
This chart highlights Singapore’s GDP growth trending upward after a brief slowdown. The rebound in services and construction sectors points to strengthening domestic demand and investment. The data suggests the economy is navigating external headwinds effectively.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SGD/USD appreciated 0.15%, while 2-year bond yields rose 5 bps, reflecting cautious optimism. The STI index showed minimal movement, indicating balanced investor sentiment.
Looking ahead, Singapore’s GDP growth faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline forecast projects 3.80-4.00% YoY growth over the next two quarters, supported by robust services demand and government investment.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Global trade tensions ease, boosting exports by 5% YoY.
- Strong domestic consumption growth of 5% YoY.
- Acceleration in digital economy and green investments.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate global growth with trade growth of 2-3% YoY.
- Steady domestic demand and stable inflation.
- MAS maintains current monetary policy stance.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Escalation of geopolitical tensions disrupts trade.
- Supply chain bottlenecks persist, slowing manufacturing.
- Inflation spikes force tighter monetary policy.
Singapore’s November 2025 GDP YoY growth of 4.20% underscores a resilient economy navigating complex global challenges. Monetary and fiscal policies remain calibrated to sustain growth while managing inflation. External risks warrant vigilance, but structural trends in technology and sustainability offer long-term growth support.
Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming trade data, inflation metrics, and geopolitical developments closely. The balance of risks suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for Singapore’s economic trajectory in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product YoY
Singapore’s GDP growth data typically influences currency, equity, and bond markets. The following tradable symbols have shown historical sensitivity to GDP releases, reflecting economic fundamentals and investor sentiment.
- SGDUSD – The Singapore dollar’s exchange rate against the US dollar often moves in response to GDP surprises.
- STI – Singapore’s benchmark stock index reacts to economic growth prospects.
- DBS – As a leading bank, DBS’s stock price correlates with domestic economic health.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect risk appetite shifts following macroeconomic data.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair often moves inversely to USD strength, influenced by global growth signals including Singapore’s data.
Indicator vs. SGDUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Singapore’s GDP YoY growth and the SGDUSD exchange rate have shown a positive correlation, with periods of GDP acceleration coinciding with SGD appreciation. For example, during the post-pandemic recovery in 2021-2022, GDP growth averaged 6.00%, while SGDUSD strengthened by approximately 8%. This relationship underscores the currency’s sensitivity to economic fundamentals and external capital flows.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Singapore’s Gross Domestic Product YoY indicate?
- The GDP YoY measures the annual percentage change in Singapore’s economic output, reflecting growth or contraction.
- How does GDP growth affect Singapore’s monetary policy?
- Stronger GDP growth may prompt tighter monetary policy to control inflation, while weaker growth could lead to easing measures.
- Why is GDP important for investors?
- GDP growth signals economic health, influencing asset prices, currency strength, and investment decisions.
Final takeaway: Singapore’s 4.20% GDP YoY growth in November 2025 reflects a resilient economy balancing growth and inflation risks amid global uncertainties. Continued policy vigilance and structural reforms will be key to sustaining momentum.
The November 2025 GDP YoY growth of 4.20% marks a rebound from October’s 2.90%, reversing a two-month decline. This figure also exceeds the 12-month average of 3.90%, signaling renewed economic vigor.
Sectoral contributions reveal that services led growth with 4.80%, manufacturing stabilized at 3.50%, and construction improved to 0.40 pp contribution. These dynamics suggest a broad-based recovery across key industries.