Singapore Industrial Production YoY Surges to 29.10% in November 2025: A Macro Analysis
Singapore’s Industrial Production (IP) YoY growth jumped to 29.10% in November 2025, far exceeding the 9.50% estimate and the prior 16.20% reading. This surge marks a sharp rebound from the volatile mid-year lows and signals robust manufacturing momentum. Key drivers include electronics and precision engineering sectors, supported by easing global supply chain constraints. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative amid inflation concerns, while fiscal stimulus and geopolitical tensions pose mixed risks. Financial markets reacted positively, with SGD strengthening and short-term yields rising. Structural trends suggest a durable shift toward high-tech manufacturing, but external shocks and global demand fluctuations warrant close monitoring.
Table of Contents
Singapore’s industrial production growth accelerated sharply in November 2025, posting a 29.10% year-on-year increase. This figure notably outpaced the consensus estimate of 9.50% and the prior month’s 16.20%, according to the Sigmanomics database. The surge reflects a rebound from the mid-year volatility, including a sharp contraction of -7.80% in September and a modest recovery in October.
Drivers this month
- Electronics manufacturing expanded by over 35%, driven by semiconductor demand.
- Precision engineering output rose 22%, benefiting from global tech upgrades.
- Pharmaceutical production increased 15%, supported by export growth.
Policy pulse
The current IP growth exceeds the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s inflation target zone, suggesting robust economic activity but also potential overheating risks. MAS has maintained a modest appreciation stance on the SGD, balancing growth with inflation control.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SGD/USD pair strengthened by 0.40% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 8 basis points, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary conditions ahead.
Industrial production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting manufacturing sector health and overall economic momentum. Singapore’s 29.10% YoY growth in November is the highest since January 2025’s 10.60%, and well above the 12-month average of 6.40% over the past year. This surge aligns with strong GDP growth forecasts and improving trade balances.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has kept policy accommodative but signaled potential tightening if inflation persists. The strong IP print may accelerate market expectations of policy normalization, especially given rising core inflation at 3.20% YoY.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Singapore’s fiscal stance remains supportive, with targeted infrastructure spending and R&D incentives boosting manufacturing capacity. The government’s budget surplus of 1.50% of GDP in FY2025 provides room for continued stimulus if needed.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain normalization and easing semiconductor shortages have aided production. However, ongoing US-China tensions and regional trade uncertainties pose downside risks to export demand and investment.
This chart signals a strong rebound in Singapore’s manufacturing sector, trending sharply upward after mid-year volatility. The surge suggests renewed global demand and improved supply conditions, but also raises questions about sustainability amid external risks.
Drivers this month
- Electronics: +35% YoY, the largest contributor.
- Precision engineering: +22% YoY, reflecting tech upgrades.
- Pharmaceuticals: +15% YoY, steady export growth.
Policy pulse
The strong print may prompt MAS to consider tightening the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) policy band sooner than expected, balancing growth with inflation containment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SGD appreciated 0.40%, 2-year yields rose 8bps, and equity markets showed modest gains in manufacturing-related stocks.
Looking ahead, Singapore’s industrial production growth faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario projects sustained 8–12% YoY growth in 2026, supported by global tech demand and government incentives. However, geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures could dampen momentum.
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (30% probability): Continued global tech expansion and supply chain normalization drive IP growth above 15% YoY.
- Base (50% probability): Moderate growth of 8–12% YoY as inflation and geopolitical risks balance out.
- Bearish (20% probability): Escalating trade tensions and global slowdown push IP growth below 5% YoY.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Singapore’s pivot toward high-value manufacturing, including semiconductors and biotech, underpins long-term IP growth. Investments in automation and sustainability also enhance resilience. However, dependence on global demand and external shocks remains a vulnerability.
Singapore’s November 2025 industrial production print of 29.10% YoY signals a robust manufacturing rebound, outstripping expectations and reflecting strong sectoral drivers. While monetary policy may tighten in response, fiscal support and structural shifts toward advanced manufacturing provide a solid foundation. External risks from geopolitical tensions and inflation remain key uncertainties. Market participants should monitor upcoming trade data and MAS policy signals closely.
Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY
Industrial production data significantly influences Singapore’s currency, bond yields, and equity markets, especially in manufacturing sectors. The following symbols historically track or react to IP trends:
- DBS – Singapore’s largest bank, sensitive to economic growth and credit demand.
- UMS – Precision engineering firm, closely tied to manufacturing output.
- SGDUSD – Singapore dollar vs. US dollar, reacts to economic data and MAS policy.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a risk sentiment proxy, often inversely correlated with manufacturing confidence.
- SATS – Logistics and supply chain services, impacted by trade and production volumes.
Insight: Industrial Production vs. DBS Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, DBS stock price has closely tracked Singapore’s industrial production trends. Periods of IP contraction, such as mid-2023, coincided with DBS share price dips, while IP rebounds in 2024 and 2025 aligned with DBS rallies. This correlation underscores the bank’s sensitivity to economic cycles and manufacturing health.
FAQs
- What is Singapore’s Industrial Production YoY for November 2025?
- It surged to 29.10%, significantly above the 9.50% estimate and prior 16.20% reading.
- How does this IP reading affect Singapore’s economy?
- The strong growth signals robust manufacturing momentum, supporting GDP growth but raising inflation and policy tightening concerns.
- What are the risks to Singapore’s industrial production outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, global demand slowdown, and inflationary pressures that could dampen growth.
Key takeaway: Singapore’s industrial production is surging, reflecting strong sectoral drivers and signaling a robust but potentially inflationary growth phase.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Comparing the November 2025 IP YoY growth of 29.10% with October’s 16.20% and the 12-month average of 6.40%, the data reveals a sharp upward trajectory. The rebound follows a volatile mid-year period marked by a -7.80% contraction in September and sub-10% growth in preceding months.
The chart below illustrates the monthly IP YoY trend over 2025, highlighting the recent surge driven by electronics and precision engineering sectors.