Singapore Retail Sales YoY: December 2025 Release and Macro Implications
Singapore’s December 2025 Retail Sales YoY surged to 4.50%, well above the 2.50% estimate and prior 2.70%. This rebound follows a volatile 2025 marked by sharp swings, including negative prints in February and April. The strong retail performance signals resilient consumer demand amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. However, inflation pressures and geopolitical risks pose downside risks. Forward-looking scenarios range from sustained growth to moderate slowdown depending on global and domestic policy shifts.
Table of Contents
Singapore’s retail sales growth accelerated to 4.50% year-on-year (YoY) in December 2025, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.50% and improving from November’s 2.70% reading. This marks a notable rebound after a turbulent year with sharp monthly fluctuations recorded in the Sigmanomics database. The retail sector’s strength reflects robust domestic consumption, supported by easing pandemic-related disruptions and a recovering labor market.
Drivers this month
- Strong demand in electronics and household goods boosted sales by approximately 1.20 percentage points (pp).
- Food and beverage retail contributed 0.90 pp, reflecting festive season spending.
- Clothing and apparel sales rebounded, adding 0.70 pp after months of softness.
Policy pulse
The 4.50% growth exceeds the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) inflation target range of 2-3%, indicating persistent consumer demand despite tightening monetary conditions. MAS’s recent policy stance, including a modest appreciation of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate, aims to temper inflation without derailing growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SGD strengthened by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, reflecting expectations of sustained policy vigilance.
Retail sales growth is a key barometer of consumer health and overall economic momentum in Singapore. The 4.50% YoY increase contrasts sharply with earlier 2025 volatility, including a -2.90% dip in February and -3.60% in April. The 12-month average growth rate stands at 1.90%, underscoring the recent acceleration.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The MAS has maintained a cautious tightening bias throughout 2025, raising policy slopes twice to curb inflationary pressures. Despite this, retail sales have shown resilience, suggesting that consumer spending remains robust amid higher borrowing costs and elevated inflation.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Government stimulus measures, including targeted support for lower-income households and tax rebates, have helped sustain disposable incomes. The fiscal budget remains expansionary but is gradually normalizing post-pandemic, balancing growth support with fiscal prudence.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region continue to pose risks. However, Singapore’s diversified trade links and strong policy frameworks have mitigated severe impacts on retail demand.
Drivers this month
- Electronics and household appliances: 1.20 pp
- Food and beverage retail: 0.90 pp
- Clothing and apparel: 0.70 pp
- Automotive and fuel sales: 0.40 pp
Policy pulse
Retail sales growth remains above MAS’s inflation target range, reinforcing expectations of continued monetary tightening. The central bank’s calibrated approach aims to balance inflation control with growth preservation.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SGD/USD appreciated 0.30% post-release, while 2-year bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting market anticipation of sustained policy normalization.
This chart reveals a clear upward trajectory in retail sales since mid-2025, reversing earlier declines. The strong December print signals resilient consumer confidence and spending power, despite tighter financial conditions and external uncertainties.
Looking ahead, Singapore’s retail sales trajectory will hinge on several factors, including monetary policy, inflation trends, and global economic conditions. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
- Global supply chains normalize, easing inflation pressures.
- MAS adopts a more dovish stance amid stable inflation.
- Consumer confidence strengthens, driving 5-6% YoY retail sales growth in 2026.
Base Scenario (50% probability)
- Monetary tightening continues at a measured pace.
- Inflation moderates but remains above target.
- Retail sales growth stabilizes around 3-4% YoY.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade and supply chains.
- Inflation spikes, forcing aggressive monetary tightening.
- Retail sales contract or grow below 1% YoY.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Singapore’s retail sector is adapting to digital transformation and shifting consumer preferences. E-commerce penetration continues to rise, offsetting some brick-and-mortar volatility. Demographic shifts and sustainability trends will also shape long-term retail dynamics.
December’s 4.50% YoY retail sales growth underscores Singapore’s resilient consumer sector amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop. While monetary tightening and external risks temper optimism, the data suggests underlying demand remains firm. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act to sustain growth while containing inflation. Market participants should monitor upcoming inflation prints, MAS policy signals, and geopolitical developments closely.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY
The Singapore Dollar (SGD) and short-term government bonds are primary markets sensitive to retail sales data, reflecting shifts in monetary policy expectations. Additionally, equities in consumer discretionary sectors and regional currency pairs may react to changes in consumer sentiment and spending power.
- USDSGD – Tracks SGD strength relative to USD, sensitive to retail-driven policy shifts.
- STI – Singapore’s benchmark index, influenced by consumer sector performance.
- EURSGD – Reflects broader currency sentiment and risk appetite in Asia.
- BTCUSD – Crypto markets often react to macroeconomic shifts and risk-on/off sentiment.
- DBS – Major Singapore bank, sensitive to retail credit demand and economic outlook.
Retail Sales vs. USDSGD Since 2020
Since 2020, retail sales growth in Singapore has shown an inverse correlation with the USDSGD exchange rate. Periods of strong retail sales often coincide with SGD appreciation, reflecting improved economic fundamentals and policy confidence. The December 2025 spike to 4.50% YoY aligns with a 0.30% SGD strengthening post-release, reinforcing this relationship.
FAQ
- What is the significance of Singapore’s Retail Sales YoY data?
- The Retail Sales YoY data measures consumer spending growth, a key driver of Singapore’s economic health and policy decisions.
- How does retail sales growth affect monetary policy in Singapore?
- Strong retail sales can signal inflationary pressures, prompting the MAS to tighten monetary policy to maintain price stability.
- What external factors influence Singapore’s retail sales?
- Global supply chains, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations impact retail sales by affecting prices, availability, and consumer confidence.
Takeaway: Singapore’s December 2025 retail sales rebound to 4.50% YoY highlights resilient consumer demand amid tightening policies and external risks, setting the stage for cautious optimism in 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The December 2025 retail sales YoY growth of 4.50% outpaces November’s 2.70% and the 12-month average of 1.90%. This rebound follows a volatile year with sharp negative dips in early 2025, highlighting a recovery phase in consumer spending.
Month-on-month (MoM) data from the Sigmanomics database shows a steady upward trend since August, with retail sales rising from 2.30% YoY in August to 5.20% in October before a slight dip to 2.80% in November and the current rebound. This pattern suggests seasonal effects combined with underlying demand strength.