Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI: December 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
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The latest SIPMM Manufacturing PMI for Singapore rose slightly to 50.20 in December 2025, up from 50.00 in November and surpassing the market estimate of 50.30. This reading indicates a return to mild expansion in the manufacturing sector after a period of stagnation. The PMI has hovered near the 50 neutral mark for the past six months, reflecting a cautious but stable manufacturing environment amid mixed global signals.
Drivers this month
- Increased output and new orders contributed 0.15 points.
- Employment levels remained steady, adding 0.05 points.
- Supplier delivery times lengthened slightly, subtracting -0.05 points.
- Input price pressures eased, supporting margins.
Policy pulse
The PMI sits just above the 50 threshold, consistent with the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) stance of gradual monetary easing to support growth while managing inflation near the 2% target. The stable PMI supports the current policy mix without immediate tightening pressure.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SGD/USD remained stable within a 0.10% range post-release, while 2-year government bond yields held steady at 3.20%. The market’s muted response reflects the PMI’s alignment with expectations and the absence of major surprises.
The SIPMM Manufacturing PMI is a key barometer of Singapore’s industrial health, closely linked to GDP growth, employment, and trade flows. The 50.20 reading in December 2025 compares to a six-month average of 49.95, marking a subtle improvement. Historically, PMI readings above 50 correlate with positive quarterly GDP growth in Singapore, which averaged 2.50% YoY during prior expansion phases.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The MAS has maintained a neutral policy stance, with the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) band unchanged since mid-2025. Interest rates remain accommodative, supporting credit growth in manufacturing and export sectors. Inflation pressures have moderated to 2.10% YoY, easing input cost concerns for manufacturers.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Singapore’s 2025 fiscal budget continues to emphasize infrastructure investment and innovation grants, with a 3.50% of GDP deficit target. These measures bolster manufacturing modernization and digital transformation, aligning with PMI signals of stable employment and output growth.
This chart highlights a stabilizing manufacturing sector trending upward after a period of stagnation. The PMI’s movement above 50 suggests improved business confidence and potential acceleration in industrial activity in early 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SGD/USD pair showed minimal volatility, trading near 1.34. Short-term government bond yields remained steady, indicating market confidence in the MAS’s balanced approach. Equity markets in Singapore showed a mild positive bias, reflecting cautious optimism.
Looking ahead, Singapore’s manufacturing PMI trajectory will depend on several macro factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) anticipates PMI readings stabilizing around 50.30–50.50 in Q1 2026, supported by steady global demand and continued fiscal stimulus. This would sustain moderate industrial growth and employment.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global supply chains normalize faster than expected.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, boosting export orders.
- Technological adoption accelerates productivity gains.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Renewed trade disruptions or geopolitical shocks.
- Rising input costs squeeze margins and output.
- Monetary tightening globally dampens demand.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Singapore’s manufacturing sector continues its shift toward high-tech, precision engineering, and digital manufacturing. This structural evolution supports resilience against cyclical shocks and aligns with government initiatives promoting Industry 4.00 adoption. The PMI’s steady readings reflect this underlying strength despite external volatility.
The December 2025 SIPMM Manufacturing PMI confirms Singapore’s manufacturing sector is cautiously expanding amid a complex global backdrop. The slight uptick above 50 signals resilience supported by accommodative monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures. However, external risks remain, requiring vigilance. Structural shifts toward advanced manufacturing provide a solid foundation for sustainable growth.
Investors and policymakers should monitor PMI trends alongside global trade developments and inflation dynamics to gauge Singapore’s industrial momentum in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to SIPMM Manufacturing PMI
The SIPMM Manufacturing PMI is a vital indicator for markets tracking Singapore’s economic health. Key tradable instruments include:
- STI: Singapore’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to manufacturing sector performance.
- SGDUSD: The Singapore dollar’s exchange rate versus the US dollar, influenced by trade and monetary policy.
- DBS: Major Singapore bank, reflecting broader economic activity and credit conditions.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price, often a risk sentiment barometer that can correlate with economic confidence.
- USDSGD: The inverse of SGDUSD, useful for hedging currency exposure linked to Singapore’s trade flows.
Insight: SIPMM Manufacturing PMI vs. STI Index Since 2020
Since 2020, the SIPMM Manufacturing PMI and the STI index have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.65. Periods where the PMI rose above 50 often coincided with STI rallies, reflecting improved investor confidence in Singapore’s industrial outlook. For example, the PMI’s rebound in late 2023 preceded a 7% STI gain over the following quarter. This relationship underscores the PMI’s value as a leading economic indicator for equity markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the SIPMM Manufacturing PMI?
- The SIPMM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based index measuring the health of Singapore’s manufacturing sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.
- How does the PMI affect Singapore’s economy?
- The PMI signals industrial activity trends, influencing GDP growth forecasts, employment, and trade performance in Singapore.
- Why is the PMI important for investors?
- Investors use the PMI to gauge economic momentum, which impacts stock prices, currency values, and bond yields linked to Singapore’s market.
Final takeaway: Singapore’s manufacturing sector shows tentative expansion in December 2025, supported by stable policy and structural resilience, but remains vulnerable to external shocks.
STI – Singapore’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to manufacturing sector performance.
SGDUSD – Singapore dollar vs. US dollar, influenced by trade and monetary policy.
DBS – Major Singapore bank, reflecting economic activity and credit conditions.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin price, a risk sentiment barometer linked to economic confidence.
USDSGD – Inverse of SGDUSD, used for hedging currency exposure related to Singapore trade.
The December 2025 SIPMM Manufacturing PMI of 50.20 marks a slight increase from November’s 50.00 and exceeds the 12-month average of 49.95. This upward move signals a tentative return to expansion after five months of near-neutral readings.
Output and new orders indices rose by 0.30 and 0.20 points respectively, while supplier delivery times extended marginally, reflecting ongoing supply chain frictions. Employment remained flat, consistent with cautious hiring amid global uncertainties.