The latest URA Property Index for Singapore, released on October 24, 2025, recorded a 0.90% quarter-on-quarter increase. This figure falls short of the 1.20% consensus forecast but marks a rebound from the 0.60% growth seen in April 2025. Over the past year, the index has shown volatility, with a notable dip of -1.10% in October 2024 and a peak of 2.30% in January 2025. The current reading reflects a property market that is stabilizing after a period of correction and adjustment.

Drivers this month

• Private residential prices rose 1.10%, supported by steady demand in suburban areas.
• Core central region prices softened slightly, dragging overall growth.
• Government land sales and new project launches contributed to supply-side dynamics.

Policy pulse

The index remains below the 12-month average of approximately 1.00%, indicating a cooling from the early 2025 surge. Monetary tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) continues to weigh on borrowing costs, tempering speculative demand.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: SGD/USD strengthened 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting confidence in Singapore’s economic fundamentals despite the softer property index print.

Singapore’s property market performance is closely linked to broader macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised to 2.10% year-on-year, down from 2.50% in Q2, signaling moderate economic expansion. Inflation remains contained at 2.40% YoY, aligning with MAS’s target range. Unemployment held steady at 2.10%, supporting household income stability.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The MAS has maintained a modest appreciation stance on the SGD nominal effective exchange rate, tightening financial conditions. Interest rates on housing loans have risen by approximately 50 basis points since early 2025, dampening mortgage demand. This has contributed to the slower-than-expected property price growth.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal measures remain supportive but cautious. The government’s 2025 budget allocated SGD 1.20 billion to public housing and infrastructure upgrades, aiming to balance supply and demand. No new cooling measures were introduced in the latest budget cycle, reflecting confidence in existing macroprudential tools.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global uncertainties, including US-China trade tensions and energy price volatility, continue to cast shadows. Singapore’s open economy remains vulnerable to these shocks, which could affect investor sentiment and foreign demand for property.

Residential segments diverged, with suburban areas outperforming the core central region. This reflects shifting buyer preferences toward affordability and space. New project launches and government land sales have increased supply, exerting downward pressure on prices in some districts.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The SGD appreciated modestly post-release, while the 2-year Singapore government bond yield edged up 5 basis points, reflecting recalibrated expectations for monetary policy tightening.

Looking ahead, the Singapore property market faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario projects steady growth of 0.80–1.20% QoQ over the next two quarters, supported by stable employment and controlled inflation. However, downside risks include further monetary tightening and geopolitical shocks that could dampen foreign investment.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Global trade tensions ease, boosting investor confidence.
• MAS signals pause in tightening, lowering borrowing costs.
• Property prices accelerate to 1.50%+ QoQ growth.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Moderate economic growth continues at ~2% GDP YoY.
• Property prices grow 0.80–1.20% QoQ, reflecting balanced demand and supply.
• Monetary policy remains cautiously restrictive.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical risks escalate, triggering capital outflows.
• MAS tightens further, pushing mortgage rates above 4%.
• Property prices contract by 0.50–1.00% QoQ.

These scenarios underscore the importance of monitoring external shocks and domestic policy shifts closely. The government’s ongoing infrastructure investments and housing supply management will be critical in shaping medium-term trends.

The October 2025 URA Property Index reading of 0.90% QoQ reflects a cautiously optimistic Singapore property market. While growth is slower than expected, the market shows resilience amid tighter financial conditions and external uncertainties. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing demand management with affordability and supply considerations. Investors should watch for shifts in monetary policy and geopolitical developments that could sway market momentum.

Overall, the property sector remains a key barometer of Singapore’s economic health and financial stability, warranting close attention in the coming quarters.

Key Markets Likely to React to URA Property Index QoQ

The URA Property Index influences several tradable markets, reflecting Singapore’s economic pulse and investor sentiment. Property price trends affect currency strength, bond yields, and equity valuations, particularly in real estate and financial sectors.

• ES3: Singapore Exchange Real Estate Index, closely tracks property sector performance.
• SGDUSD: Singapore Dollar vs. US Dollar, sensitive to economic and property market signals.
• DBS: Major Singapore bank, impacted by mortgage lending trends.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin, often viewed as an alternative asset during property market uncertainty.
• USDCNH: US Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan offshore, reflecting regional capital flows affecting Singapore.

FAQs

What is the URA Property Index QoQ?

The URA Property Index QoQ measures quarterly changes in private residential property prices in Singapore, reflecting market trends and sentiment.

How does the URA Property Index impact Singapore’s economy?

Property prices influence household wealth, consumption, and financial stability, making the index a key economic indicator.

What factors drive changes in the URA Property Index?

Monetary policy, supply-demand dynamics, fiscal measures, and external shocks all affect property price movements.

Key takeaway: Singapore’s property market shows moderate growth amid tightening financial conditions, with external risks shaping near-term prospects.