SI Unemployment Rate Report: November 2025 Release and Macro Implications
The latest unemployment rate for SI, released on November 21, 2025, holds steady at 4.50%, matching the previous month’s figure and slightly better than the 4.60% estimate. This report draws on the Sigmanomics database and compares recent trends with historical data to assess the broader economic outlook. The steady unemployment rate amid evolving monetary, fiscal, and geopolitical conditions offers a nuanced view of SI’s labor market and macroeconomic trajectory.
Table of Contents
The unemployment rate in SI remains unchanged at 4.50% for November 2025, consistent with October’s reading and below the 12-month average of 4.70%. This stability follows a downward trend from a peak of 5.10% in March 2025. The labor market shows resilience despite external shocks and tightening monetary policy. The steady rate signals balanced labor demand and supply amid ongoing economic adjustments.
Drivers this month
- Stable job creation in manufacturing and services sectors.
- Moderate wage growth supporting labor participation.
- Reduced layoffs in export-oriented industries despite global uncertainties.
Policy pulse
The unemployment rate remains within the central bank’s target range, supporting a cautious stance on interest rates. The 4.50% figure aligns with the inflation target zone, reducing immediate pressure for aggressive monetary tightening.
Market lens
Following the release, the EURSI currency pair showed a mild appreciation of 0.10%, reflecting market confidence in SI’s labor market stability. Short-term government bond yields remained flat, signaling steady financial conditions.
SI’s core macroeconomic indicators complement the unemployment data, painting a broader picture of economic health. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 2.10% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.30% average of the past year. Inflation stands at 2.40%, near the central bank’s 2% target, while wage growth averaged 3.00% annually, supporting consumer spending.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank has maintained its policy rate at 3.50% since September 2025, balancing inflation control with growth support. Credit growth slowed to 4.20% year-over-year, reflecting cautious lending amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit of 2.80% of GDP, slightly improved from 3.10% in 2024. Government spending on infrastructure and social programs supports employment, cushioning potential shocks.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Trade tensions and energy price volatility continue to pose risks. However, SI’s diversified export base and strategic reserves mitigate immediate labor market impacts. The geopolitical landscape remains watchful but stable for now.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing employment steady at 1.20% growth MoM.
- Service sector hiring offset by seasonal adjustments.
- Labor force participation rate stable at 62.50%.
Policy pulse
The steady unemployment rate supports the central bank’s current neutral stance. Inflation expectations remain anchored, reducing the need for immediate rate hikes.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EURSI currency strengthened by 0.10%, while 2-year government bond yields held steady at 2.80%. Equity markets showed mild gains in consumer discretionary sectors.
This chart highlights a labor market that has stabilized after early-year volatility. The unemployment rate’s plateau suggests that SI’s economy is balancing growth with inflation control, setting the stage for measured policy decisions.
Looking ahead, the unemployment rate in SI faces several possible trajectories. The baseline scenario, with a 60% probability, forecasts a steady rate around 4.50% to 4.60% through Q1 2026, supported by moderate GDP growth and stable inflation.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger-than-expected export demand drives job creation.
- Fiscal stimulus accelerates infrastructure projects, lowering unemployment to 4.20% by mid-2026.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, boosting credit and investment.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade and supply chains.
- Energy price shocks increase production costs, leading to layoffs.
- Unemployment rises to 5.00% by Q2 2026, pressuring monetary tightening.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include faster global recovery and technological adoption boosting productivity. Downside risks center on inflation surprises and tighter global financial conditions. Policymakers must remain vigilant to these dynamics.
The November 2025 unemployment rate of 4.50% in SI reflects a labor market that has stabilized after early-year volatility. This steady reading, supported by moderate GDP growth and contained inflation, suggests a balanced economic environment. However, external shocks and geopolitical risks warrant close monitoring. The interplay of monetary and fiscal policies will be crucial in sustaining employment gains while managing inflationary pressures.
Investors and policymakers should watch for shifts in labor participation and wage growth as leading indicators. The current data support a cautious but optimistic outlook for SI’s economy in the near term.
Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is a critical barometer for SI’s economic health, influencing currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets. Below are five tradable symbols historically sensitive to changes in SI’s labor market:
- ABC – A leading industrial stock, sensitive to employment trends in manufacturing.
- EURSI – The EUR/SI currency pair, reflecting macroeconomic confidence and capital flows.
- BTCSI – A crypto asset correlated with risk appetite and economic sentiment in SI.
- XYZ – A consumer discretionary stock, impacted by wage growth and employment.
- USDSEK – A currency pair influenced by regional economic shifts affecting SI’s trade partners.
Insight: Unemployment Rate vs. EURSI Since 2020
| Year | Avg Unemployment Rate (%) | EURSI Avg Price |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5.30 | 1.12 |
| 2021 | 4.90 | 1.15 |
| 2022 | 4.70 | 1.18 |
| 2023 | 4.60 | 1.20 |
| 2024 | 4.70 | 1.19 |
| 2025 | 4.50 | 1.21 |
The inverse correlation between unemployment and EURSI price since 2020 highlights how labor market strength supports currency appreciation. As unemployment declined from 5.30% in 2020 to 4.50% in 2025, EURSI appreciated by nearly 8%, reflecting improved economic fundamentals.
FAQs
- What does the latest SI unemployment rate indicate about the economy?
- The 4.50% rate signals a stable labor market with balanced job creation and moderate inflation pressures, suggesting steady economic growth.
- How does the unemployment rate affect monetary policy in SI?
- The steady rate supports the central bank’s neutral stance, reducing urgency for rate hikes while monitoring inflation and growth.
- What are the risks to the unemployment outlook in SI?
- Geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks, and global financial tightening pose downside risks that could increase unemployment.
The unemployment rate for November 2025 holds at 4.50%, unchanged from October and below the 12-month average of 4.70%. This marks a reversal from the March 2025 peak of 5.10%, indicating a steady improvement in labor market conditions over the past eight months.
Monthly data from the Sigmanomics database show a gradual decline from early 2025, with minor fluctuations in the summer months. The current stability suggests a plateau in labor market tightening, balancing job creation and workforce availability.