SN Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
The latest inflation rate YoY for SN, released on November 10, 2025, registered at 1.90%, down from 2.60% in October and below the 2.30% consensus estimate. This marks a notable deceleration in inflationary pressures after a steady rise since mid-2025. Drawing on data from the Sigmanomics database, this report compares recent inflation trends with historical readings, evaluates core macroeconomic indicators, and assesses the broader implications for monetary policy, fiscal stance, and financial markets amid ongoing geopolitical and structural challenges.
Table of Contents
The inflation rate in SN has moderated to 1.90% YoY in November 2025, down from 2.60% in October and well below the 12-month average of 1.30% recorded earlier this year. This decline follows a peak in October, signaling easing price pressures after a period of gradual acceleration since July. The geographic scope covers the entire SN economy, with inflation measured in local currency (XOF). The temporal scope focuses on the latest monthly release and its comparison to the past 12 months.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed 0.12 percentage points (pp), a slowdown from 0.25 pp in October.
- Food prices eased, subtracting -0.10 pp from overall inflation, reflecting improved supply chains.
- Energy inflation remained subdued at 0.05 pp, consistent with global commodity price trends.
Policy pulse
The current inflation rate of 1.90% sits below the central bank’s target range of 2.00–3.00%, suggesting room for accommodative monetary policy. The moderation may reduce pressure on the central bank to hike interest rates aggressively in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SN currency (XOF) strengthened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting eased inflation concerns.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the inflation reading. GDP growth in SN is projected at 3.20% for 2025, supported by stable agricultural output and recovering industrial activity. Unemployment remains steady at 7.50%, while wage growth has slowed to 2.10% YoY, aligning with the easing inflation trend.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank’s benchmark interest rate remains at 3.50%, unchanged since August 2025. Financial conditions have eased slightly, with credit growth at 5.40% YoY and stable liquidity in the banking system. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months have adjusted downward to 2.10% from 2.50% three months ago.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a budget deficit forecast of 4.20% of GDP in 2025. Government spending on infrastructure and social programs continues, but inflation moderation may ease pressure on subsidy programs linked to energy and food prices.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility has lessened, reducing imported inflation risks. However, regional geopolitical tensions persist, posing downside risks to trade and investment flows. The SN economy remains vulnerable to external shocks, especially in energy and food markets.
Drivers this month
- Core inflation components, excluding volatile food and energy, rose by 1.10% YoY, down from 1.50% last month.
- Food inflation eased to 0.80% YoY from 1.40%, reflecting improved harvests and supply chain normalization.
- Energy inflation remained stable at 0.50% YoY, supported by steady global oil prices.
This chart highlights a clear inflection point in SN’s inflation trajectory. The downward shift in November signals easing price pressures, likely to influence monetary policy decisions and market sentiment in the coming months.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SN government bond curve flattened, with 2-year yields dropping 5 basis points and 10-year yields steady. The local currency strengthened modestly, reflecting improved inflation outlook and reduced risk premia.
Looking ahead, inflation in SN is expected to remain moderate but subject to several risks. The baseline scenario (60% probability) projects inflation stabilizing around 2.00% in early 2026, supported by steady commodity prices and stable wage growth. The bullish scenario (20%) anticipates inflation falling below 1.50% due to stronger currency appreciation and improved supply conditions. Conversely, the bearish scenario (20%) foresees inflation rising above 3.00% if geopolitical tensions escalate or global energy prices spike.
Monetary Policy Implications
The central bank is likely to maintain its current accommodative stance in the near term, given inflation below target and stable financial conditions. However, vigilance remains necessary to respond to upside inflation risks.
Fiscal and External Considerations
Fiscal discipline will be critical to avoid fueling inflationary pressures. External risks, including commodity price shocks and geopolitical instability, require close monitoring to mitigate adverse impacts on inflation and growth.
In summary, SN’s inflation rate YoY has moderated to 1.90% in November 2025, signaling easing price pressures after a period of acceleration. This development aligns with improved supply conditions and stable monetary policy. While risks remain from external shocks and geopolitical tensions, the current inflation trajectory supports a cautious but accommodative macroeconomic stance. Market participants should watch for shifts in commodity prices and fiscal policy adjustments as key drivers of inflation dynamics in the coming quarters.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data in SN typically influences local currency strength, bond yields, and equity market sentiment. The following tradable symbols historically track inflation trends or react to inflation surprises, making them critical for investors and policymakers monitoring SN’s macroeconomic environment.
- XOFUSD – The SN local currency pair against USD, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
- BNP.PA – A major financial stock with exposure to West African markets, reflecting economic conditions.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts to inflation expectations as a hedge asset.
- MTN – A telecom stock with significant operations in SN, sensitive to consumer spending power.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair, influencing regional trade and investment flows impacting SN.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. XOFUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, SN’s inflation rate and the XOFUSD exchange rate have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with XOF depreciation, reflecting reduced purchasing power and monetary tightening expectations. The recent November 2025 inflation decline to 1.90% has coincided with a 0.30% XOF appreciation, reinforcing this relationship. This dynamic underscores the importance of inflation data for currency traders and policymakers alike.
FAQ
- What is the current Inflation Rate YoY for SN?
- The latest inflation rate YoY for SN is 1.90% as of November 2025, down from 2.60% in October.
- How does the Inflation Rate YoY impact SN’s monetary policy?
- Inflation below the central bank’s target suggests a continued accommodative monetary stance, with limited pressure for rate hikes.
- What are the main risks to SN’s inflation outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, commodity price shocks, and fiscal policy shifts that could push inflation above target.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 1.90% represents a 0.70 percentage point decline from October’s 2.60% and is below the 12-month average of 2.00%. This marks the first monthly drop after five consecutive months of rising inflation. The trend reversal is significant given the prior upward momentum since July, when inflation was 0.80%.
Comparing historical data, the current inflation rate is higher than the sub-zero readings recorded in April and May 2025 (-0.20%), but well below the peak of 2.60% in October. This suggests a return to moderate inflation levels consistent with the central bank’s medium-term target.