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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
São Tomé and PríncipeSão Tomé and Príncipe Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 11.8% in August 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2025
São Tomé and Príncipe Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 11.8% in August 2025, released October 2025, up 0.7% from July's 11.1% reading. The reading matched expectations. Inflation Rate YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 10.8%, vs 10.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
11.8
Actual
11.5
Consensus
11.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.87 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 11.5
Actual: 11.8
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (São Tomé and Príncipe) was reported at 11.8% in October 2025. This beat the market consensus of 11.5% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 11.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 10.93%, down from the prior three at 11.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.87%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Inflation Rate YoY - ST
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About Inflation Rate YoY — São Tomé and Príncipe
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2025): actual 11.8 %, consensus 11.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2025): 11.1 %. Before that (Jun 2025): 10.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.