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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
El SalvadorEl Salvador Current Account climbed to -610.4M in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
El Salvador Current Account climbed to -610.4M in January 2026, released June 2026, up 292.25M from December's -902.65M reading. The print exceeded the -800M consensus by 189.6M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -207.74M. The reading is in the 12th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-610.4
Actual
-800
Consensus
-902.65
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±246.44 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -800
Actual: -610.4
Error: -189.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (El Salvador) was reported at -610.40 million in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -800.00 million by 189.60 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -902.65 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -536.94 million, down from the prior three at -186.18 million. In June readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -389.67 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 246.44 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Current Account - SV
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About Current Account — El Salvador
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -610.4 M, consensus -800 M. Prior reading (Oct 2025): -902.7 M. Before that (Jul 2025): -97.78 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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