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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
El SalvadorEl Salvador Current Account fell to -902.65M in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
El Salvador Current Account fell to -902.65M in October 2025, released March 2026, down 804.87M from September's -97.78M reading. The reading missed the -104M consensus by 798.65M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -146.76M. Current Account is now the lowest in 57 months.
Latest Release
-902.65
Actual
-104
Consensus
-97.78
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±266.7 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: -104
Actual: -902.65
Error: +798.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (El Salvador) was reported at -902.65 million in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of -104.00 million by 798.65 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -97.78 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -260.50 million, up from the prior three at -397.58 million. In March readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -400.93 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 266.71 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 26, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Current Account - SV
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About Current Account — El Salvador
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual -902.7 M, consensus -104 M. Prior reading (Jul 2025): -97.78 M. Before that (Jul 2025): -97.78 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.