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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
El SalvadorEl Salvador GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 3.8% in October 2025
FMPQuarterlyReleased March 2026
El Salvador GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 3.8% in October 2025, released March 2026, down 1.43% from September's 5.23% reading. The reading missed the 5.5% consensus by 1.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.05%.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
5.5
Consensus
5.23
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.27 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 5.5
Actual: 3.8
Error: +1.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (El Salvador) was reported at 3.8% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.5% by 1.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.23%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.33%, up from the prior three at 2.43%. In March readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 3.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.27%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - SV
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — El Salvador
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 3.8 %, consensus 5.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 5.1 %. Before that (Apr 2025): 4.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.