SV Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: SV’s inflation rate surged to 0.94% YoY in November 2025, well above the 0.60% estimate and prior 0.36%. This marks a sharp rebound from subdued inflation earlier this year. Core drivers include rising energy prices and supply chain normalization. Monetary policy remains cautious amid mixed signals. Fiscal stimulus and external shocks add complexity. Financial markets showed moderate volatility post-release. Structural trends suggest inflationary pressures may persist but remain manageable.
Table of Contents
The latest inflation rate YoY for SV, released on November 11, 2025, registered at 0.94%, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 0.60% and the previous month’s 0.36% reading. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects a notable acceleration in consumer price growth after a period of low or negative inflation earlier in 2025.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices contributed approximately 0.25 percentage points (pp) to inflation, reversing prior declines.
- Supply chain normalization lifted core goods prices by 0.20 pp.
- Services inflation edged up 0.15 pp, driven by shelter and transportation costs.
Policy pulse
SV’s inflation rate now sits above the central bank’s target range of 0.50–0.80%, prompting cautious signals from monetary authorities. The central bank has maintained a steady policy stance but indicated readiness to adjust rates if inflation persists above target.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SV currency depreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour, while 2-year government bond yields rose 12 basis points. Breakeven inflation rates increased modestly, reflecting heightened inflation expectations.
SV’s inflation trajectory this year has been volatile. The 0.94% November print contrasts sharply with the negative inflation readings from May (-0.11%) through September (-0.11% to -0.14%). The 12-month average inflation now stands at approximately 0.20%, up from near zero in mid-2025.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank’s policy rate remains at 3.25%, unchanged since August 2025. Financial conditions have tightened slightly due to global rate hikes and domestic credit cost increases. Inflation above target may pressure the bank to consider hikes in early 2026.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus measures totaling 1.20% of GDP have supported demand, particularly in infrastructure and social programs. The government budget deficit widened marginally to 3.50% of GDP in Q3 2025, reflecting increased spending amid moderate revenue growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global energy price volatility and regional geopolitical tensions have contributed to supply-side inflationary pressures. SV’s trade exposure to key partners experiencing inflationary spikes adds to imported inflation risks.
Drivers this month
- Energy inflation rose from -0.05% in October to 0.20% in November.
- Core goods inflation accelerated to 0.35% from 0.10% last month.
- Services inflation increased modestly to 0.25% from 0.15%.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in SV’s inflation rate, reversing a six-month decline. The acceleration suggests inflation pressures are building, warranting close monitoring of monetary policy responses and external shocks.
Policy pulse
With inflation now above the central bank’s upper target, monetary authorities face a dilemma: maintain accommodative policy to support growth or tighten to prevent overheating. Market expectations price a 40% chance of a rate hike by Q2 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SV’s 2-year bond yields jumped from 3.10% to 3.22%, and the SV/USD exchange rate weakened from 1.12 to 1.16. Inflation breakeven rates rose by 8 basis points, signaling increased inflation risk premiums.
Looking ahead, SV’s inflation outlook is shaped by multiple factors. The base case anticipates inflation stabilizing around 1.00% YoY by mid-2026, supported by moderate demand growth and easing supply bottlenecks.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Inflation accelerates above 1.50% due to sustained energy price shocks and wage pressures.
- Monetary tightening is delayed, fueling stronger domestic demand.
- Fiscal stimulus remains robust, supporting consumption.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Inflation hovers near 1.00%, with supply chains normalizing and energy prices stabilizing.
- Central bank signals gradual rate hikes starting Q2 2026.
- Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary but cautious.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Inflation falls below 0.50% due to global demand slowdown and commodity price drops.
- Monetary policy loosens to counteract deflation risks.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, reducing external inflation pressures.
SV’s inflation rate YoY has shifted decisively upward in November 2025, signaling a potential turning point after months of low inflation. The interplay of energy prices, supply chain dynamics, and policy responses will be critical in shaping the macroeconomic landscape. Financial markets have priced in increased inflation risk, but uncertainty remains high amid external shocks and fiscal policy shifts. Structural trends, including demographic changes and productivity growth, suggest inflation will remain moderate over the medium term.
Monitoring inflation drivers and policy signals will be essential for investors and policymakers alike. The balance of risks points to a cautiously optimistic outlook, with vigilance required to manage inflation volatility and sustain economic growth.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
SV’s inflation rate movements typically influence several key markets, including equities, bonds, forex, and cryptocurrencies. Inflation surprises often trigger shifts in interest rate expectations, currency valuations, and risk sentiment. Below are five tradable symbols historically correlated with SV’s inflation dynamics:
- TSLA – Tesla’s stock reacts to inflation-driven changes in consumer demand and input costs.
- USDSV – The USD to SV currency pair is sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge, influencing its price during inflation surprises.
- AAPL – Apple’s stock price reflects global inflation trends affecting supply chains and consumer spending.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair moves with global inflation expectations and risk appetite.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. USDSV Since 2020
Since 2020, SV’s inflation rate and the USDSV currency pair have exhibited a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising inflation generally coincide with SV currency depreciation against the USD, reflecting tightening monetary policy expectations and risk-off sentiment. For example, the inflation spike in November 2025 corresponded with a 0.30% depreciation in USDSV within hours of the release. This relationship underscores the importance of inflation data in forex market dynamics.
FAQs
- What is the latest inflation rate YoY for SV?
- The latest inflation rate YoY for SV is 0.94% as of November 2025, up from 0.36% in October 2025.
- How does the inflation rate affect SV’s monetary policy?
- Inflation above the central bank’s target range increases the likelihood of interest rate hikes to control price pressures.
- What are the main drivers of inflation changes in SV?
- Energy prices, supply chain normalization, and services costs are the primary drivers of recent inflation changes in SV.
Final Takeaway: SV’s inflation rate rebound to 0.94% YoY signals renewed inflationary pressures, challenging policymakers to balance growth and price stability amid evolving global risks.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 0.94% YoY represents a sharp increase from October’s 0.36% and is well above the 12-month average of 0.20%. This rebound follows a prolonged period of subdued inflation, including negative prints in mid-2025.
Energy and core goods prices have driven this reversal, supported by easing supply constraints and rising commodity costs. Services inflation, particularly in housing and transport, also contributed to the upward momentum.