Thailand’s balance of trade for November 2025 recorded a deficit of -3.44 billion THB, a sharp reversal from October’s 1.28 billion THB surplus. This figure missed the consensus estimate of -0.65 billion THB by a wide margin, signaling a significant deterioration in external trade conditions. The latest data from the Sigmanomics database shows this is the largest monthly deficit since May 2025, when the trade gap was -3.30 billion THB.

Drivers this month

• Exports contracted due to weaker global demand, especially from China and the US.
• Imports surged, driven by higher energy prices and increased capital goods purchases.
• Supply chain disruptions and rising freight costs pressured trade balances.

Policy pulse

The Bank of Thailand’s recent monetary tightening aims to curb inflationary pressures partly fueled by import costs. The trade deficit adds complexity, as a weaker THB could exacerbate inflation but support export competitiveness.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: THB/USD depreciated 0.40% within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over external imbalances. The 2-year government bond yield rose 8 basis points, signaling increased risk premiums.

The balance of trade is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting Thailand’s external economic health. November’s -3.44 billion THB deficit contrasts sharply with the 12-month average surplus of approximately 0.20 billion THB, underscoring a recent trend of volatility.

Historical comparisons

• May 2025 deficit of -3.30 billion THB was the last comparable low point.
• October 2025’s 1.28 billion THB surplus marked a temporary rebound.
• Early 2025 saw mostly positive trade balances, averaging 1.03 billion THB from March to April.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

Rising import costs and trade deficits have contributed to inflationary pressures, prompting the Bank of Thailand to raise policy rates by 25 basis points in November. Financial conditions remain tight, with credit growth slowing to 4.10% YoY as of October.

Fiscal policy & government budget

The government’s fiscal stance remains cautious, with a budget deficit target of 3.50% of GDP for 2025. Increased spending on infrastructure and energy subsidies aims to mitigate external shocks but may limit fiscal flexibility.

Exports fell by an estimated 5.80% MoM, while imports rose 3.40%, driven by higher commodity prices and capital goods demand. The trade deficit is consistent with weakening global demand and supply chain disruptions, particularly in electronics and automotive sectors.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The THB weakened against the USD, while 2-year yields climbed, reflecting heightened risk perceptions. Equity markets showed mild declines, particularly in export-oriented sectors.

Looking ahead, Thailand’s trade balance faces multiple headwinds. Global demand uncertainties, persistent supply chain issues, and elevated commodity prices could sustain deficits in the near term. However, policy responses and external developments will shape the trajectory.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Global demand recovers sharply in Q1 2026, boosting exports by 6% YoY.
• Energy prices stabilize, reducing import costs.
• THB stabilizes, supporting trade competitiveness.

Base scenario (55% probability)

• Moderate export growth of 2-3% YoY amid uneven global recovery.
• Import costs remain elevated but manageable.
• Monetary policy tightens gradually to control inflation.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Global recession risks materialize, contracting exports by 5% YoY.
• Commodity prices spike further, worsening import bills.
• THB depreciates sharply, fueling inflation and financial market volatility.

Structural & long-run trends

Thailand’s trade structure is evolving with increased reliance on electronics and automotive exports. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain realignments may reshape trade partners, requiring policy agility to maintain competitiveness.

November’s balance of trade deficit underscores growing external vulnerabilities for Thailand. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and managing inflation amid volatile global conditions. Structural reforms and diversification of trade partners will be essential to mitigate risks. Market participants should monitor trade data closely as a leading indicator of economic momentum and currency pressures.

Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade

Thailand’s balance of trade data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets, especially sectors linked to exports and imports. The following tradable symbols historically track or react to shifts in Thailand’s external trade dynamics:

• THBUSD – The Thai baht’s USD exchange rate is sensitive to trade balance swings, reflecting capital flows and external demand.
• PTT.BK – Thailand’s largest energy firm, impacted by import costs and export revenues.
• SCC.BK – A major industrial conglomerate with exposure to export markets and commodity prices.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects broader risk sentiment, which can be influenced by macroeconomic shocks including trade deficits.
• USDCNH – The USD/CNH pair tracks China’s currency, a key trading partner whose demand affects Thailand’s exports.

FAQs

What does Thailand’s balance of trade indicate?

The balance of trade measures the difference between exports and imports, reflecting Thailand’s external economic health and currency pressures.

How does the balance of trade affect Thailand’s economy?

Trade surpluses support growth and currency strength, while deficits can signal external vulnerabilities and inflation risks.

Why is the November 2025 trade deficit significant?

It marks the largest monthly deficit in 2025, indicating weakening export demand and rising import costs amid global uncertainties.

Takeaway: Thailand’s November 2025 trade deficit signals mounting external pressures requiring vigilant policy responses and market attention.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.