Thailand’s November 2025 Balance of Trade: A Sharp Deficit Signals Macro Challenges Ahead
Key Takeaways: Thailand’s November 2025 balance of trade plunged to a deficit of -3.44 billion THB, far below the -0.65 billion THB estimate and reversing last month’s 1.28 billion THB surplus. This marks the largest monthly deficit since May 2025 and highlights intensifying external pressures. The data suggests weakening export momentum amid rising global uncertainties and domestic cost pressures. Monetary policy tightening and fiscal prudence will be critical to managing inflation and currency volatility. Structural shifts in global supply chains and geopolitical risks add complexity to Thailand’s trade outlook.
Table of Contents
- Big-Picture Snapshot
- Foundational Indicators
- Chart Dynamics
- Forward Outlook
- Closing Thoughts
- Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
Thailand’s balance of trade for November 2025 recorded a deficit of -3.44 billion THB, a sharp reversal from October’s 1.28 billion THB surplus. This figure missed the consensus estimate of -0.65 billion THB by a wide margin, signaling a significant deterioration in external trade conditions. The latest data from the Sigmanomics database shows this is the largest monthly deficit since May 2025, when the trade gap was -3.30 billion THB.
Drivers this month
- Exports contracted due to weaker global demand, especially from China and the US.
- Imports surged, driven by higher energy prices and increased capital goods purchases.
- Supply chain disruptions and rising freight costs pressured trade balances.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Thailand’s recent monetary tightening aims to curb inflationary pressures partly fueled by import costs. The trade deficit adds complexity, as a weaker THB could exacerbate inflation but support export competitiveness.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: THB/USD depreciated 0.40% within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over external imbalances. The 2-year government bond yield rose 8 basis points, signaling increased risk premiums.
The balance of trade is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting Thailand’s external economic health. November’s -3.44 billion THB deficit contrasts sharply with the 12-month average surplus of approximately 0.20 billion THB, underscoring a recent trend of volatility.
Historical comparisons
- May 2025 deficit of -3.30 billion THB was the last comparable low point.
- October 2025’s 1.28 billion THB surplus marked a temporary rebound.
- Early 2025 saw mostly positive trade balances, averaging 1.03 billion THB from March to April.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
Rising import costs and trade deficits have contributed to inflationary pressures, prompting the Bank of Thailand to raise policy rates by 25 basis points in November. Financial conditions remain tight, with credit growth slowing to 4.10% YoY as of October.
Fiscal policy & government budget
The government’s fiscal stance remains cautious, with a budget deficit target of 3.50% of GDP for 2025. Increased spending on infrastructure and energy subsidies aims to mitigate external shocks but may limit fiscal flexibility.
Exports fell by an estimated 5.80% MoM, while imports rose 3.40%, driven by higher commodity prices and capital goods demand. The trade deficit is consistent with weakening global demand and supply chain disruptions, particularly in electronics and automotive sectors.
This chart signals a critical inflection point, with Thailand’s trade balance trending downward sharply after a brief recovery. The widening deficit pressures the THB and complicates inflation management, suggesting external vulnerabilities are rising.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The THB weakened against the USD, while 2-year yields climbed, reflecting heightened risk perceptions. Equity markets showed mild declines, particularly in export-oriented sectors.
Looking ahead, Thailand’s trade balance faces multiple headwinds. Global demand uncertainties, persistent supply chain issues, and elevated commodity prices could sustain deficits in the near term. However, policy responses and external developments will shape the trajectory.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global demand recovers sharply in Q1 2026, boosting exports by 6% YoY.
- Energy prices stabilize, reducing import costs.
- THB stabilizes, supporting trade competitiveness.
Base scenario (55% probability)
- Moderate export growth of 2-3% YoY amid uneven global recovery.
- Import costs remain elevated but manageable.
- Monetary policy tightens gradually to control inflation.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Global recession risks materialize, contracting exports by 5% YoY.
- Commodity prices spike further, worsening import bills.
- THB depreciates sharply, fueling inflation and financial market volatility.
Structural & long-run trends
Thailand’s trade structure is evolving with increased reliance on electronics and automotive exports. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain realignments may reshape trade partners, requiring policy agility to maintain competitiveness.
November’s balance of trade deficit underscores growing external vulnerabilities for Thailand. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and managing inflation amid volatile global conditions. Structural reforms and diversification of trade partners will be essential to mitigate risks. Market participants should monitor trade data closely as a leading indicator of economic momentum and currency pressures.
Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
Thailand’s balance of trade data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets, especially sectors linked to exports and imports. The following tradable symbols historically track or react to shifts in Thailand’s external trade dynamics:
- THBUSD – The Thai baht’s USD exchange rate is sensitive to trade balance swings, reflecting capital flows and external demand.
- PTT.BK – Thailand’s largest energy firm, impacted by import costs and export revenues.
- SCC.BK – A major industrial conglomerate with exposure to export markets and commodity prices.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects broader risk sentiment, which can be influenced by macroeconomic shocks including trade deficits.
- USDCNH – The USD/CNH pair tracks China’s currency, a key trading partner whose demand affects Thailand’s exports.
FAQs
- What does Thailand’s balance of trade indicate?
- The balance of trade measures the difference between exports and imports, reflecting Thailand’s external economic health and currency pressures.
- How does the balance of trade affect Thailand’s economy?
- Trade surpluses support growth and currency strength, while deficits can signal external vulnerabilities and inflation risks.
- Why is the November 2025 trade deficit significant?
- It marks the largest monthly deficit in 2025, indicating weakening export demand and rising import costs amid global uncertainties.
Takeaway: Thailand’s November 2025 trade deficit signals mounting external pressures requiring vigilant policy responses and market attention.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.









November’s balance of trade at -3.44 billion THB is a stark reversal from October’s 1.28 billion THB surplus and well below the 12-month average of 0.20 billion THB. This swing highlights a rapid deterioration in Thailand’s external position.
Key figure: The deficit widened by 4.72 billion THB month-on-month, the largest monthly drop in 2025.