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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Balance of Trade fell to -5.86B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Thailand Balance of Trade fell to -5.86B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 3.38B from August's -2.48B reading. The reading missed the -1.8B consensus by 4.06B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -3.22B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -3.05B, vs -8.28B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-5.86
Actual
-1.8
Consensus
-2.48
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.03 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -1.0
Actual: -5.86
Error: +4.86
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.84 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/THB | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Thailand) was reported at -5.86 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1.80 billion by 4.06 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -2.48 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -4.53 billion, ranging from -10.02 billion to -2.48 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -3.98 billion, up from the prior three at -6.45 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.35 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.63 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -1.40 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/THB, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.03 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - TH
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About Balance of Trade — Thailand
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -5.86 M, consensus -1.8 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -2.48 M. Before that (Jul 2026): -3.61 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.84) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TH Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | TH | Industrial Production YoY | 2.05 | 4.44 | 2.8 | 2.42 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Investment MoM | 21.6 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 10.70 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Current Account | -1.6 | 2.4 | 0.97 | -0.32 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Consumption MoM | -2.2 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -1.40 | Low |
| 10:20 | TH | Retail Sales YoY | 15.2 | -5.9 | -9 | 3.10 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | TH | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.3 | 54.5 | 55.35 | Low | |