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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Business Confidence climbed to 49.8% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Thailand Business Confidence climbed to 49.8% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 3.1% from July's 46.7% reading. The print exceeded the 47.2% consensus by 2.6%. Business Confidence has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 46.4%, vs 44.57% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the highest in 8 months.
Latest Release
49.8
Actual
47.2
Consensus
46.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 46.75
Actual: 49.8
Error: -3.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Thailand) was reported at 49.8% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 47.2% by 2.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 46.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 48%, ranging from 42.5% to 50% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 47.53%, up from the prior three at 46.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.38%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 48.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Business Confidence - TH
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About Business Confidence — Thailand
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 49.8 %, consensus 47.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 46.7 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 46.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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