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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Business Confidence fell to 48.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Thailand Business Confidence fell to 48.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.7% from August's 49.8% reading. The reading matched the 49.6% consensus. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 48.25%, vs 44.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
48.1
Actual
49.6
Consensus
49.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 50.18
Actual: 48.1
Error: +2.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Thailand) was reported at 48.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 49.6% by 1.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 49.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 48.01%, ranging from 42.5% to 50% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 48.2%, up from the prior three at 45.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.22%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 47.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - TH
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About Business Confidence — Thailand
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 48.1 %, consensus 49.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 49.8 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 46.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TH Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | TH | Industrial Production YoY | 2.05 | 4.44 | 2.8 | 2.42 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Investment MoM | 21.6 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 10.70 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Current Account | -1.6 | 2.4 | 0.97 | -0.32 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Consumption MoM | -2.2 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -1.40 | Low |
| 10:20 | TH | Retail Sales YoY | 15.2 | -5.9 | -9 | 3.10 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | TH | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.3 | 54.5 | 55.35 | Low | |