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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Business Confidence fell to 42.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Thailand Business Confidence fell to 42.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.0% from April's 43.5% reading. The reading matched the 42.0% consensus. Business Confidence has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 45.6%, vs 49.5% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 33 months.
Latest Release
42.5
Actual
42
Consensus
43.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 43.6
Actual: 42.5
Error: +1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/THB | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Bearish Hang Seng | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Thailand) was reported at 42.5% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 42% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 43.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.87%, ranging from 42.5% to 50% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 46.6%, down from the prior three at 49.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.16%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.25%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 45.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/THB (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Business Confidence - TH
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About Business Confidence — Thailand
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 42.5 %, consensus 42 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 43.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 47.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/THB (Bullish USD, r=0.61) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.