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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 1.44% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Thailand Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 1.44% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1% from July's 1.34% reading. The print came in hotter than the 1.33% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.63%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 0.31%, vs 0.77% in the prior 3-month window. Core Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 33 months.
Latest Release
1.44
Actual
1.33
Consensus
1.34
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.26
Actual: 1.44
Error: -1.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/THB | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (Thailand) was reported at 1.44% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.33% by 0.11%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.34%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.58%, ranging from -0.73% to 1.44% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.54%, down from the prior three at 0.58%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.57%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.1%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 0.96%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/THB, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 5, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - TH
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — Thailand
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 1.44 %, consensus 1.33 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.73 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.34 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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