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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Exports YoY fell to 24.0% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Thailand Exports YoY fell to 24.0% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.3% from August's 24.3% reading. The print exceeded the 17.9% consensus by 6.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 16.9%. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 22.95%, vs 21.95% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
24
Actual
17.9
Consensus
24.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 18.7
Actual: 24
Error: -5.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.85 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/THB | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Thailand) was reported at 24% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 17.9% by 6.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 24.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 17.48%, ranging from 5.5% to 24.4% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 23.3%, up from the prior three at 17.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.26%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.53%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 15.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Exports YoY - TH
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About Exports YoY — Thailand
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 24 %, consensus 17.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 24.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 21.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.85) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - TH Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | TH | Industrial Production YoY | 2.05 | 4.44 | 2.8 | 2.42 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Investment MoM | 21.6 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 10.70 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Current Account | -1.6 | 2.4 | 0.97 | -0.32 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Consumption MoM | -2.2 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -1.40 | Low |
| 10:20 | TH | Retail Sales YoY | 15.2 | -5.9 | -9 | 3.10 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | TH | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.3 | 54.5 | 55.35 | Low | |