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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Exports YoY climbed to 20.8% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Thailand Exports YoY climbed to 20.8% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 10.2% from May's 10.6% reading. The print exceeded the 15.2% consensus by 5.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 16.12%. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
20.8
Actual
15.2
Consensus
10.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 18.65
Actual: 20.8
Error: -2.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.86 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/THB | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Thailand) was reported at 20.8% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15.2% by 5.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 10.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.6%, ranging from 5.5% to 24.4% across 15 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 17.93%, down from the prior three at 22.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.82%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.4%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 13.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Exports YoY - TH
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About Exports YoY — Thailand
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 20.8 %, consensus 15.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 23.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 18.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.86) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TH Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TH | Private Consumption MoM | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.90 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Current Account | -3.5 | -6.4 | 1.6 | -0.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Investment MoM | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 1.25 | Low |
| 07:30 | TH | Retail Sales YoY | -14.5 | -20 | -13 | -13.75 | Low |