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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Exports YoY climbed to 23.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Thailand Exports YoY climbed to 23.1% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 4.4% from March's 18.7% reading. The print exceeded the 16.2% consensus by 6.9%. Exports YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 17.4%, vs 13.78% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
23.1
Actual
16.2
Consensus
18.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 13.6
Actual: 23.1
Error: -9.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.86 | INDEX | Bearish Hang Seng | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/THB | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Thailand) was reported at 23.1% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 16.2% by 6.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 18.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.51%, ranging from 5.5% to 24.4% across 16 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 18.87%, up from the prior three at 16%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.49%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.17%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 13.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Exports YoY - TH
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About Exports YoY — Thailand
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 23.1 %, consensus 16.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 18.7 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 9.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.86) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.