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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Exports YoY climbed to 21.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Thailand Exports YoY climbed to 21.6% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.8% from June's 20.8% reading. The print exceeded the 17.8% consensus by 3.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 16.28%. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
21.6
Actual
17.8
Consensus
20.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 20.6
Actual: 21.6
Error: -1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.85 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/THB | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Thailand) was reported at 21.6% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 17.8% by 3.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 20.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 15.68%, ranging from 5.5% to 24.4% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 21.83%, up from the prior three at 19.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.3%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.24%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 14.38%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Exports YoY - TH
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About Exports YoY — Thailand
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 21.6 %, consensus 17.8 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 20.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 23.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.85) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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