Thailand Exports YoY: November 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
Key Takeaways: Thailand’s November 2025 exports grew 5.70% YoY, sharply below the 6.10% estimate and a steep decline from October’s 19.20%. This slowdown reflects external demand pressures amid global uncertainties. Monetary policy remains cautious, fiscal stimulus is moderate, and geopolitical risks weigh on trade sentiment. Forward outlook hinges on global recovery pace and supply chain normalization.
Table of Contents
Thailand’s exports YoY growth for November 2025 registered at 5.70%, a notable deceleration from October’s 19.20% and below the consensus estimate of 6.10%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This marks the lowest reading since September’s 5.80%, signaling a cooling in external demand after a volatile year.
Drivers this month
- Weaker global electronics demand, a key export segment, contributed to the slowdown.
- Supply chain disruptions persisted, limiting export volume growth.
- Regional trade tensions and currency volatility dampened trade flows.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Thailand maintains a neutral stance, balancing inflation risks with growth concerns. The current export slowdown supports a wait-and-see approach, as inflation remains near the 3% target but external headwinds rise.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: THB/USD weakened 0.30% post-release, reflecting concerns over export momentum. Equity markets showed mild declines in export-heavy sectors.
Exports are a critical driver of Thailand’s GDP, accounting for roughly 60% of economic output. The 5.70% YoY growth in November contrasts sharply with the 12-month average of approximately 13.50%, underscoring recent volatility.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Thailand’s policy rate remains at 1.25%, unchanged since mid-2025. Financial conditions have tightened slightly due to global rate hikes, impacting trade financing costs. The export slowdown may reduce inflationary pressures, limiting scope for further tightening.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus remains moderate, with the government focusing on infrastructure and digital economy investments. Export incentives have been maintained but are unlikely to offset global demand softness fully.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened US-China tensions and supply chain realignments continue to affect Thailand’s export sectors, especially electronics and automotive parts. Regional trade agreements provide some buffer but cannot fully insulate against global shocks.
Drivers this month
- Electronics exports fell by 4.20% MoM, a key drag on overall growth.
- Automotive parts exports remained flat, reflecting weak global auto sales.
- Agricultural exports showed resilience, growing 3.10% YoY.
Policy pulse
Monetary policy remains accommodative but cautious. The export slowdown reduces inflation risks, supporting a steady policy stance.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The THB depreciated modestly against the USD, while export-sensitive stocks in the SET index fell 0.50% within the first hour.
This chart signals a clear downward trend in export growth momentum, reversing the strong gains seen in mid-2025. The persistence of sub-6% growth suggests external headwinds will weigh on Thailand’s near-term GDP growth.
Looking ahead, Thailand’s export trajectory depends heavily on global economic conditions and supply chain normalization. Three scenarios outline potential paths:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Global demand recovers strongly in 2026, boosting electronics and automotive exports.
- Supply chain issues ease, enabling volume growth above 10% YoY.
- THB stabilizes, supporting export competitiveness.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate global growth with ongoing geopolitical risks.
- Exports grow 4-6% YoY, reflecting steady but unspectacular demand.
- Monetary policy remains neutral, balancing inflation and growth.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Global recession or intensified trade conflicts reduce export demand.
- Exports contract or stagnate, falling below 2% YoY growth.
- THB volatility increases, raising costs for exporters.
Risks to the outlook include inflation shocks, further supply chain disruptions, and shifts in regional trade policies. Upside hinges on US-China détente and technology sector rebounds.
Thailand’s November 2025 exports YoY growth of 5.70% signals a marked slowdown from earlier in the year. While still positive, the decline reflects external demand softness and structural challenges. Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and managing inflation.
Export performance remains a bellwether for Thailand’s broader economic health. The next quarters will be critical in determining if the recent slowdown is temporary or indicative of a longer-term trend. Investors and policymakers should monitor global trade dynamics closely.
Key Markets Likely to React to Exports YoY
Thailand’s exports data significantly influence regional equity, currency, and commodity markets. Export growth trends affect corporate earnings, currency strength, and investor sentiment. The following tradable symbols historically track Thailand’s export performance closely:
- SET – Thailand’s stock exchange index, sensitive to export sector earnings.
- THBUSD – The Thai baht against the US dollar, reflecting trade balance and capital flows.
- SCC – A major industrial conglomerate with export exposure.
- USDCNH – Chinese yuan pair, relevant due to China’s role as a key trading partner.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a proxy for global risk sentiment impacting emerging markets.
Extras: Exports YoY vs. SET Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Thailand’s exports YoY growth and the SET index have shown a strong positive correlation. Periods of export acceleration, such as mid-2021 and early 2025, coincided with SET rallies above 10%. Conversely, export slowdowns in late 2022 and late 2025 aligned with market pullbacks. This relationship underscores exports as a key driver of investor confidence and equity valuations in Thailand.
FAQs
- What does the latest Thailand Exports YoY figure indicate?
- The 5.70% YoY growth in November 2025 indicates a significant slowdown from previous months, reflecting weaker global demand and supply chain issues.
- How does Thailand’s export performance affect its economy?
- Exports account for about 60% of Thailand’s GDP, so changes in export growth directly impact overall economic growth and employment.
- What are the main risks to Thailand’s export outlook?
- Key risks include global recession, trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and currency volatility, all of which can dampen export demand.
Final Takeaway: Thailand’s export growth slowdown to 5.70% YoY in November 2025 signals rising external headwinds. Policymakers and investors must navigate a complex global environment to sustain growth momentum.
SET – Thailand’s stock exchange index, sensitive to export sector earnings.
THBUSD – The Thai baht against the US dollar, reflecting trade balance and capital flows.
SCC – A major industrial conglomerate with export exposure.
USDCNH – Chinese yuan pair, relevant due to China’s role as a key trading partner.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a proxy for global risk sentiment impacting emerging markets.
The November 2025 exports YoY growth of 5.70% marks a sharp decline from October’s 19.20% and is well below the 12-month average of 13.50%. This drop highlights a significant cooling after a strong rebound earlier in the year.
Comparing recent months, September’s 5.80% and November’s 5.70% are the lowest in 2025, indicating a sustained slowdown. The volatility in monthly readings reflects external demand shocks and supply chain challenges.