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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ThailandThailand Foreign Exchange Reserves fell to 276.1B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves fell to 276.1B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 7B from August's 283.1B reading. The reading matched the 275B consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 2.8B. Over the past 3 months, Foreign Exchange Reserves averaged 279.25B, vs 284.53B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
276.1
Actual
275
Consensus
283.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.06 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 275
Actual: 276.1
Error: -1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Foreign Exchange Reserves (Thailand) was reported at 276.10 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 275.00 billion by 1.10 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 283.10 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 282.48 billion, ranging from 275.00 billion to 294.00 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 278.20 billion, down from the prior three at 286.90 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.43 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 12.05 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Foreign Exchange Reserves has averaged 264.13 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.06 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Foreign Exchange Reserves - TH
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About Foreign Exchange Reserves — Thailand
DEFINITION
Foreign Exchange Reserves refer to the amount of foreign currency held by a country's central bank. These reserves are used to maintain stability in the country's currency and to fulfill international payment obligations. They serve as a measure of a country's economic strength and ability to withstand external shocks. Foreign Exchange Reserves are an important financial indicator for investors and policymakers, providing insight into a country's monetary policy and its ability to manage its currency.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 276.1 M, consensus 275 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 283.1 M. Before that (Jul 2026): 275.4 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TH Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | TH | Industrial Production YoY | 2.05 | 4.44 | 2.8 | 2.42 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Investment MoM | 21.6 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 10.70 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Current Account | -1.6 | 2.4 | 0.97 | -0.32 | Low |
| 07:00 | TH | Private Consumption MoM | -2.2 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -1.40 | Low |
| 10:20 | TH | Retail Sales YoY | 15.2 | -5.9 | -9 | 3.10 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | TH | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.3 | 54.5 | 55.35 | Low | |