Thailand’s Latest GDP Growth Rate YoY: A Detailed Analysis and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Thailand’s GDP growth slowed sharply to 1.20% YoY in November 2025, well below the 1.60% estimate and a steep drop from 2.80% in August. This marks the lowest reading in over two years, signaling rising headwinds from external shocks and tightening financial conditions. Monetary policy remains cautious amid inflationary pressures, while fiscal stimulus is limited by budget constraints. Geopolitical risks and global market volatility add uncertainty. Forward-looking scenarios suggest a cautious recovery with downside risks prevailing.
Table of Contents
Thailand’s latest GDP growth rate YoY, released on November 17, 2025, registered at 1.20%, a significant slowdown from the previous 2.80% recorded in August 2025. This figure also missed the consensus estimate of 1.60%, according to the Sigmanomics database. The deceleration reflects a complex interplay of domestic and external factors amid a challenging global economic environment.
Drivers this month
- Weaker export demand amid global slowdown contributed -0.50 percentage points (pp).
- Domestic consumption growth slowed, subtracting -0.30 pp due to rising inflation.
- Investment growth remained subdued, contributing only 0.10 pp.
- Government spending was flat, providing no net stimulus.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Thailand has maintained a cautious stance, keeping policy rates steady at 1.75% to balance inflation control and growth support. Inflation remains above the 2% target, limiting room for easing. Fiscal policy is constrained by a government budget deficit of 3.50% of GDP, restricting large-scale stimulus measures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The THB weakened 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while the 2-year government bond yield rose by 12 basis points, reflecting increased risk premium. Equity markets showed mild declines, with the SET index down 0.60%.
Thailand’s GDP growth trajectory over the past two years shows notable volatility. The 1.20% YoY growth in November 2025 is the lowest since 1.50% in May 2024 and well below the 3.20% peak in February 2025. The 12-month average growth rate stands at approximately 2.30%, highlighting the recent slowdown as a significant deviation.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Thailand’s steady policy rate at 1.75% reflects a cautious approach amid persistent inflationary pressures, which hovered around 3.10% YoY in October 2025. Credit growth has slowed to 4.20% YoY, down from 6.50% a year ago, indicating tighter financial conditions. The Thai baht’s depreciation against major currencies has increased import costs, further pressuring inflation.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal deficits remain elevated at 3.50% of GDP, limiting expansionary fiscal policy. Government spending growth has been flat in recent quarters, with priority given to social welfare and infrastructure projects. Tax revenues have been pressured by slower economic activity, constraining budget flexibility.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Thailand’s export sector faces headwinds from slowing demand in China and Europe, its key trading partners. Rising geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia and global supply chain disruptions have added uncertainty. Energy price volatility has also impacted production costs and consumer prices.
This chart signals a clear deceleration in Thailand’s economic momentum, reversing the upward trend seen in early 2025. The sharp drop below the 12-month average suggests rising vulnerabilities, particularly from external demand shocks and domestic inflation pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Thai baht depreciated 0.40% against the USD, reflecting concerns over slower growth. The 2-year government bond yield rose 12 basis points, signaling increased risk perception. The SET index declined 0.60%, indicating investor caution.
Looking ahead, Thailand’s growth outlook is clouded by multiple risks but also some potential upside. The baseline scenario projects GDP growth stabilizing around 1.50% in early 2026 as global demand recovers moderately and domestic inflation eases.
Bullish Scenario (20% probability)
- Global trade rebounds strongly, boosting exports by 5% YoY.
- Monetary policy eases in H2 2026 as inflation falls below 2%.
- Fiscal stimulus increases, supporting domestic demand.
- GDP growth accelerates to 3.00% by end-2026.
Base Scenario (55% probability)
- Global growth remains moderate, exports grow 2% YoY.
- Monetary policy remains steady with gradual easing in late 2026.
- Fiscal policy stays neutral with limited stimulus.
- GDP growth averages 1.50–2.00% through 2026.
Bearish Scenario (25% probability)
- Global recession risks materialize, exports contract by 3% YoY.
- Inflation remains sticky, forcing tighter monetary policy.
- Fiscal constraints deepen, limiting government spending.
- GDP growth falls below 1.00%, risking stagflation.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Thailand faces structural challenges including an aging population, reliance on exports, and limited productivity growth. Long-term reforms in education, technology adoption, and infrastructure are critical to sustain growth above 3% annually. The current slowdown underscores the need for diversification and innovation to mitigate external shocks.
Thailand’s latest GDP growth print of 1.20% YoY signals a notable slowdown amid tightening financial conditions and external headwinds. While the economy is not in recession, the sharp deceleration from mid-2025 levels highlights vulnerabilities. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between controlling inflation and supporting growth. The external environment remains uncertain, with geopolitical risks and global demand volatility posing ongoing threats.
Investors and analysts should monitor inflation trends, monetary policy signals, and fiscal developments closely. The baseline outlook suggests modest growth recovery, but downside risks remain elevated. Structural reforms and diversification efforts will be key to improving resilience and long-run growth prospects.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY
Thailand’s GDP growth rate is a critical indicator for multiple asset classes. Equity markets, currency pairs, government bonds, and select commodities tend to respond swiftly to changes in growth momentum. Below are five tradable symbols historically correlated with Thailand’s economic performance, offering valuable insights for traders and investors.
- SET – Thailand’s main stock index, highly sensitive to domestic growth and investor sentiment.
- USDTWD – Taiwan dollar pair, reflecting regional trade dynamics affecting Thailand’s exports.
- THBUSD – Thai baht to USD, directly impacted by growth and monetary policy shifts.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often a risk sentiment barometer that correlates inversely with economic uncertainty.
- PTT – Major Thai energy company, sensitive to domestic economic activity and energy demand.
Insight: Thailand GDP Growth vs. SET Index Since 2020
Since 2020, the SET index has closely tracked Thailand’s GDP growth trends, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.68. Periods of GDP acceleration, such as early 2025, coincided with SET rallies above 10%, while slowdowns like the current 1.20% print have led to market corrections. This relationship underscores the SET’s role as a barometer of economic health and investor confidence in Thailand.
FAQs
- What is the current GDP Growth Rate YoY for Thailand?
- The latest GDP growth rate for Thailand is 1.20% YoY as of November 2025, indicating a slowdown from previous quarters.
- How does Thailand’s GDP growth impact its currency?
- GDP growth influences the Thai baht (THB) by affecting investor confidence and monetary policy expectations, often leading to currency appreciation or depreciation.
- What are the main risks to Thailand’s economic growth?
- Key risks include global demand shocks, inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and structural challenges like an aging population and export dependency.
Final Takeaway
Thailand’s GDP growth slowdown to 1.20% YoY signals rising economic challenges. Policymakers must navigate inflation and external risks carefully to sustain recovery and long-term growth.
Sources
- Sigmanomics database, Thailand GDP Growth Rate YoY, November 2025 release.
- Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Reports, Q3 2025.
- Ministry of Finance Thailand, Fiscal Budget Reports 2025.
- International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook Asia, October 2025.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY
Thailand’s GDP growth rate is a key economic indicator that influences various financial markets. Equity indices like the SET respond to changes in growth expectations, while currency pairs such as THBUSD reflect shifts in monetary policy and capital flows. Regional pairs like USDTWD track trade dynamics affecting Thailand’s exports. The energy sector, represented by PTT, is sensitive to domestic demand changes. Additionally, BTCUSD often serves as a risk sentiment gauge during economic uncertainty.
The November 2025 GDP growth rate of 1.20% YoY marks a sharp decline from the 2.80% recorded in August 2025 and is significantly below the 12-month average of 2.30%. This drop highlights a reversal from the steady growth trend observed earlier this year.
Compared to the previous three years, the current reading is the lowest since May 2024’s 1.50%, underscoring the impact of tightening monetary conditions and external demand shocks. The chart below illustrates the downward trend since mid-2025.