Inflation Rate MoM for TL in November 2025: A Modest Rebound Amid Lingering Uncertainties
The latest data from the Sigmanomics database reveals that TL's Inflation Rate MoM for November 2025 registered a modest increase of 0.10%, matching market expectations and reversing October's 0.20% decline. This subtle uptick follows a volatile inflation trajectory over recent months, reflecting a complex interplay of domestic and external factors shaping TL’s macroeconomic landscape.
Table of Contents
November 2025’s inflation reading of 0.10% MoM marks a tentative return to positive territory after October’s contraction of 0.20%. Over the past six months, inflation has oscillated, with April and May seeing a sharp rise of 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively, followed by a dip in June (-0.2%), and a steady but moderate climb through August (0.2%), September (0.2%), and October (0.1%). The 12-month average inflation rate stands near 0.25%, indicating that November’s figure remains below the longer-term trend.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices stabilized after recent volatility, contributing +0.03 pp.
- Food prices edged up slightly, adding +0.04 pp.
- Core services inflation remained subdued, contributing +0.02 pp.
- Used car prices and shelter costs showed minimal impact, with slight downward pressure.
Policy pulse
The inflation rate remains below the central bank’s 0.5% monthly target, signaling continued slack in price pressures. This supports the current accommodative monetary stance, though the central bank remains vigilant for signs of inflationary acceleration.
Market lens
In the immediate aftermath of the release, the TL/USD currency pair showed mild appreciation, reflecting relief that inflation did not accelerate further. Short-term bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, while breakeven inflation rates held steady, indicating stable inflation expectations.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for November’s inflation dynamics. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 2.1% annualized, signaling moderate economic expansion. Unemployment remains steady at 5.3%, while wage growth has slowed to 3.0% YoY, limiting upward pressure on consumer prices.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% in early December, citing subdued inflation and the need to support growth. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with credit growth steady at 6.5% YoY. Inflation expectations, as measured by the 2-year breakeven rate, hover around 2.1%, close to the target range.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with the government increasing infrastructure spending by 4.5% YoY in November. The budget deficit widened slightly to 3.8% of GDP, reflecting stimulus efforts aimed at sustaining demand amid global uncertainties.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity prices have stabilized after mid-year shocks, easing imported inflation risks. However, geopolitical tensions in neighboring regions continue to pose downside risks to trade and investor confidence, potentially impacting inflation through supply chain disruptions.
What This Chart Tells Us
Market lens
Immediate reaction: USD/TL softened by 0.15% post-release. The currency’s mild strengthening reflects market confidence that inflation remains manageable. Meanwhile, 2-year government bond yields declined slightly, indicating stable inflation expectations and a favorable environment for fixed income.
Looking ahead, inflation in TL faces a mix of upward and downward pressures. The baseline scenario projects inflation hovering around 0.1% to 0.2% MoM over the next quarter, supported by steady demand and stable commodity prices.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Stronger-than-expected wage growth and renewed energy price shocks could push inflation above 0.3% MoM, prompting the central bank to consider tightening monetary policy sooner than planned.
Base scenario (60% probability)
Inflation remains stable near current levels, with gradual normalization of supply chains and moderate fiscal stimulus supporting steady growth without significant price pressures.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Global demand shocks or renewed geopolitical tensions could suppress inflation further, risking deflationary pressures and necessitating additional monetary easing.
Risks and Opportunities
- Upside risks include commodity price volatility and wage acceleration.
- Downside risks stem from external shocks and fiscal constraints.
- Monetary policy will remain data-dependent, balancing growth and inflation targets.
November 2025’s inflation data for TL signals a modest recovery from October’s dip, reflecting a fragile but steady macroeconomic environment. The central bank’s accommodative stance appears justified, though vigilance remains essential amid external uncertainties. Fiscal policy continues to support demand, while geopolitical risks and global commodity trends will be key variables to monitor.
Overall, the inflation outlook suggests a cautious but stable path forward, with markets likely to respond sensitively to any shifts in core indicators or policy signals.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Inflation data for TL is closely watched by currency traders, bond investors, and equity markets. Movements in inflation influence central bank policy expectations, impacting asset prices and risk sentiment. The following symbols historically correlate with TL inflation trends and are expected to react to the latest release:
- USDTRY – The primary currency pair reflecting TL’s inflation and monetary policy shifts.
- ISCTR.IS – A major Turkish bank stock sensitive to interest rate and inflation changes.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts to inflation expectations as an alternative store of value.
- EURTRY – Reflects broader currency sentiment and inflation differentials in the region.
- THYAO.IS – Turkish Airlines stock, sensitive to economic cycles and inflation-driven cost pressures.
Inflation Rate vs. USDTRY Since 2020
Since 2020, TL’s monthly inflation rate and USDTRY exchange rate have shown a positive correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with TL depreciation against the USD, reflecting market concerns over purchasing power and monetary policy. The November 2025 inflation uptick coincides with a mild USDTRY appreciation, consistent with this pattern.
| Month | Inflation Rate MoM (%) | USDTRY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | 0.10 | -0.15 |
| Oct 2025 | -0.20 | 0.25 |
| Sep 2025 | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Aug 2025 | 0.20 | -0.05 |
| Jul 2025 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
FAQ
- What does the November 2025 Inflation Rate MoM indicate for TL’s economy?
- The 0.10% increase suggests a modest rebound in inflation, signaling stable but cautious economic growth.
- How does this inflation reading affect monetary policy?
- The figure supports the central bank’s current accommodative stance, with no immediate pressure to tighten policy.
- What are the main risks to inflation going forward?
- Risks include commodity price shocks, geopolitical tensions, and potential wage growth acceleration.
Key Takeaway: November’s inflation data for TL points to a fragile stabilization, balancing growth support with inflation containment amid external uncertainties.
Updated 12/19/25
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
November 2025’s inflation rate of 0.10% MoM contrasts with October’s -0.20% and remains below the 12-month average of approximately 0.25%. This pattern highlights a tentative stabilization after a period of volatility.
Comparing recent months, April’s peak of 0.8% stands out as an outlier, with subsequent months settling into a narrower range between -0.2% and 0.2%. The current figure suggests inflationary pressures are contained but not fully subdued.