The November inflation rate MoM for TL at -0.20% marks a notable reversal from recent months. This decline contrasts with the positive prints of 0.10% in October and 0.20% in September, signaling a potential easing in price pressures. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly inflation rate has hovered around 0.25%, making this month’s contraction an outlier in the recent inflation cycle.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices fell by 1.50%, contributing -0.08 percentage points (pp) to the inflation drop.
• Food and beverage costs declined by 0.30%, subtracting -0.05 pp.
• Core services inflation remained steady, adding a modest 0.02 pp.
• Transportation costs dropped 0.70%, contributing -0.04 pp.

Policy pulse

This reading sits below the central bank’s inflation target band of 2.00%–4.00% annualized, suggesting a temporary easing in inflationary pressures. The central bank’s recent hawkish stance, including a 50 basis point rate hike last month, appears to be moderating demand-side inflation.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The TL currency strengthened by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 12 basis points, reflecting market optimism about subdued inflation risks. Breakeven inflation rates for the next 2 years dropped from 3.10% to 2.90%, signaling reduced inflation expectations.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the inflation print. GDP growth for Q3 2025 slowed to 1.20% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), down from 1.80% in Q2, reflecting weaker domestic demand. Unemployment remained stable at 5.40%, while wage growth moderated to 3.00% YoY from 3.50% previously.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The central bank’s key policy rate now stands at 5.75%, up from 5.25% in October. Financial conditions have tightened, with credit growth slowing to 4.10% YoY from 5.00%. Inflation expectations have adjusted downward, consistent with the latest print.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government maintaining a 3.50% of GDP deficit target for 2025. Recent stimulus measures aimed at infrastructure and social welfare continue to support aggregate demand, but their inflationary impact appears contained for now.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Global commodity prices, especially oil, have softened amid easing geopolitical tensions in the region. The recent de-escalation of trade disputes with major partners has also reduced import cost pressures, contributing to the inflation slowdown.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The TL/USD exchange rate appreciated by 0.30%, reflecting market confidence in subdued inflation. The 2-year government bond yield fell by 12 basis points, while breakeven inflation rates declined by 20 basis points, indicating lower inflation risk premia.

Looking ahead, inflation in TL faces mixed pressures. The base case scenario (60% probability) projects inflation stabilizing around 0.10% MoM in the next quarter, supported by continued monetary tightening and easing commodity prices. The bullish scenario (20% probability) foresees inflation falling further into negative territory (-0.30% MoM), driven by sustained demand weakness and favorable external conditions. Conversely, the bearish scenario (20% probability) anticipates a rebound to 0.50% MoM inflation, triggered by renewed supply chain disruptions or fiscal stimulus overshoot.

Structural & long-run trends

Long-term inflation trends in TL have been shaped by gradual productivity gains, demographic shifts, and evolving consumption patterns. The recent volatility reflects transitional dynamics as the economy adjusts to post-pandemic realities and global supply chain normalization.

Policy pulse

The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious stance, balancing inflation risks against growth concerns. Forward guidance suggests a pause in rate hikes unless inflation rebounds sharply.

Market lens

Financial markets remain sensitive to inflation signals. The TL currency and local bond markets will likely react to any deviation from the base case, with volatility expected to persist amid global uncertainty.

The November 2025 inflation rate MoM for TL at -0.20% signals a potential easing of inflation pressures after a volatile year. While this print offers some relief, risks remain on both sides. Policymakers must navigate a complex environment of moderating demand, fiscal stimulus, and external uncertainties. Market participants will watch closely for signs of sustained disinflation or a rebound. The Sigmanomics database provides a robust framework for ongoing monitoring and scenario analysis.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM

The inflation rate MoM for TL is a critical indicator influencing currency, bond, and equity markets. Key symbols historically correlated with inflation dynamics include:

• TLUSD – The TL/USD currency pair reacts swiftly to inflation surprises, reflecting changes in real interest rate expectations.
• INFL – An inflation-sensitive equity index that tracks sectors vulnerable to price changes.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge, with price movements linked to inflation sentiment.
• CBK – A central bank proxy stock sensitive to monetary policy shifts driven by inflation data.
• EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair reflects broader global inflation and monetary policy trends impacting TL.

Extras: Inflation Rate MoM vs. TLUSD Since 2020

Year	Average Inflation Rate MoM (%)	TLUSD Annual Change (%)
2020	0.15	-5.20
2021	0.30	-8.70
2022	0.40	-12.10
2023	0.22	-3.50
2024	0.18	-1.80
2025 (YTD)	0.12	2.40

This table highlights the inverse relationship between inflation rate MoM and TLUSD exchange rate movements, underscoring inflation’s key role in currency valuation.

FAQs

What does the November 2025 inflation rate MoM indicate for TL?

The -0.20% MoM reading suggests easing inflation pressures, potentially signaling a shift toward more stable prices in TL.

How does this inflation print compare historically?

It is the first negative monthly inflation since June 2025 and below the 12-month average of 0.25%, marking a notable deviation.

What are the key risks to the inflation outlook?

Risks include potential supply chain disruptions, fiscal stimulus overshoot, or renewed external shocks that could reverse the disinflation trend.

Takeaway: November’s -0.20% inflation MoM for TL signals easing price pressures but warrants cautious monitoring amid mixed macroeconomic signals and external uncertainties.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Sources

1. Sigmanomics database, Inflation Rate MoM for TL, November 2025 release.
2. Central Bank of TL, Monetary Policy Reports, Q3 2025.
3. Ministry of Finance TL, Fiscal Budget Statements, 2025.
4. International Energy Agency, Oil Price Trends, November 2025.
5. Bloomberg, Market Reaction Data, November 20, 2025.