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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
East TimorEast Timor Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 1.2% in November 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2025
East Timor Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 1.2% in November 2025, released December 2025, up 0.3% from October's 0.9% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.37%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 0.8%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 13 months.
Latest Release
1.2
Actual
1.2
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.32 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Dec 2025
Predicted: 1.18
Actual: 1.2
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (East Timor) was reported at 1.2% in December 2025. This matched the market consensus of 1.2% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through December 2025. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.53%, ranging from -0.2% to 1.2% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1%, up from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.02%). In December readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.33%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Inflation Rate YoY - TL
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About Inflation Rate YoY — East Timor
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2025): actual 1.2 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0.9 %. Before that (Sep 2025): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.