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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 1.78% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Turkey Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 1.78% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.79% from June's 0.99% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.4%. The reading is in the 25th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.78
Actual
1.83
Consensus
0.99
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.44 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 1.89
Actual: 1.78
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Turkey) was reported at 1.78% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.83% by 0.05%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.99%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.28%, ranging from 0.87% to 4.84% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.81%, down from the prior three at 2.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.13%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.97%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 2.36%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.44%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 21) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - TR
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About Inflation Rate MoM — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.78 %, consensus 1.83 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.71 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.18 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | TR | Central Government Debt | 14.992 | 15.2 | 15.20 | Low | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Business Confidence | 102.2 | 102.5 | 103.75 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Capacity Utilization | 73.9 | 74 | 74.05 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Consumer Confidence | 89.8 | 90 | 90.00 | Medium | |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -5 | -11.22 | Low | |