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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Producer Price Index MoM fell to 2.75% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Turkey Producer Price Index MoM fell to 2.75% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.42% from April's 3.17% reading. The reading missed the 3.0% consensus by 0.25%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.15%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 2.75%, vs 1.95% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 78th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.75
Actual
3
Consensus
3.17
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.59 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.55
Actual: 2.75
Error: +0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Turkey) was reported at 2.75% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3% by 0.25%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.17%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.01%, ranging from 0.75% to 2.75% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.49%, up from the prior three at 1.42%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/TRY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.59%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - TR
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Turkey
DEFINITION
Turkey's Producer Price Index MoM rose 2.75% in May, missing the 3.00% estimate. This marks a decline from April's 3.20%, indicating a slowdown in monthly producer price inflation. Market focus remains on the central bank's next moves amid easing price pressures. Updated 6/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.75 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.57) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |