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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Producer Price Index MoM fell to 2.07% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Producer Price Index MoM fell to 2.07% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.5% from August's 2.57% reading. The reading missed the 2.5% consensus by 0.43%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.45%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 2.05%, vs 2.98% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.07
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.57
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.67 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.77
Actual: 2.07
Error: +0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Turkey) was reported at 2.07% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.5% by 0.43%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.57%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.95%, ranging from 0.75% to 2.75% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.05%, down from the prior three at 2.49%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.7%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.42%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.67%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - TR
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Turkey
DEFINITION
Turkey's Producer Price Index MoM rose 2.070000% in September, missing the 2.500000% estimate. This marks a decline from August's 2.570000%, indicating a slowdown in monthly producer price inflation. Market focus remains on upcoming inflation data and central bank policy amid easing price pressures. Updated 10/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.07 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2.57 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.52 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.60) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |