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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Producer Price Index YoY fell to 27.38% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Producer Price Index YoY fell to 27.38% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.57% from August's 27.95% reading. The reading matched the 28.0% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.79%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 27.89%, vs 28.76% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
27.38
Actual
28
Consensus
27.95
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.94 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 28.35
Actual: 27.38
Error: +0.96
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Turkey) was reported at 27.38% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 28% by 0.62%. The reading fell from the previous value of 27.95%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 27.68%, ranging from 27% to 28.93% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 27.72%, down from the prior three at 28.19%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.53%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.55%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/TRY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.94%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - TR
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Turkey's Producer Price Index YoY came in at 27.380%, missing the 28.000% estimate for October. This marks a decline from September's 27.950%, continuing a downward trend in producer inflation. The lower reading may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming monetary policy decisions. Updated 10/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 27.38 %, consensus 28 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 27.95 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 27.83 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/TRY (Bullish USD, r=0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |