Turkey’s November 2025 Trade Balance: A Deepening Deficit Amidst Complex Macroeconomic Pressures
Key Takeaways: Turkey’s trade deficit widened sharply to -7.40 billion TRY in November 2025, surpassing last month’s -6.90 billion TRY and well above the -4.17 billion TRY recorded in September. This marks the largest deficit in over a year, reflecting persistent external imbalances. The deterioration is driven by rising import costs amid elevated energy prices and a weakening currency. Monetary tightening and fiscal constraints add layers of complexity, while geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on trade flows. Forward-looking risks include further currency volatility and inflationary pressures, though export diversification efforts offer some upside potential.
Table of Contents
Turkey’s trade balance for November 2025 posted a deficit of -7.40 billion TRY, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure represents a significant deterioration compared to October’s -6.90 billion TRY and is markedly worse than the -4.17 billion TRY deficit recorded in September. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly deficit hovered around -5.50 billion TRY, underscoring the current reading as a notable outlier on the downside.
Drivers this month
- Rising energy import costs amid global price pressures contributed approximately 1.20 billion TRY to the deficit increase.
- Weaker Turkish lira (TRY) inflated the local currency value of imports, especially machinery and intermediate goods.
- Export growth remained sluggish, constrained by external demand softness and supply chain bottlenecks.
Policy pulse
The trade deficit’s expansion complicates the Central Bank of Turkey’s (CBRT) inflation targeting, as import-driven inflation risks intensify. The CBRT’s recent monetary tightening, including a 150 basis point hike in the policy rate last month, aims to stabilize the TRY but has yet to stem import cost pressures fully.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The TRY depreciated by 0.80% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting market concerns over external imbalances. The 2-year government bond yield rose 15 basis points, signaling increased risk premia.
Turkey’s trade balance is a critical macroeconomic indicator reflecting the country’s external sector health. The November 2025 deficit of -7.40 billion TRY contrasts sharply with the -4.17 billion TRY recorded just two months prior. Historically, Turkey’s trade deficits have averaged around -5 billion TRY monthly over the past three years, with occasional spikes linked to energy price shocks and currency fluctuations.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The CBRT’s tightening cycle, initiated in mid-2025, aims to curb inflation and stabilize the TRY. However, the lagged effects of rate hikes mean import costs remain elevated, especially for energy and raw materials priced in USD and EUR. The TRY’s depreciation of roughly 12% year-to-date exacerbates the trade deficit by increasing the local currency cost of imports.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Turkey’s fiscal stance remains cautious, with limited room for expansion due to elevated public debt and inflationary pressures. The government’s efforts to support export sectors through targeted subsidies and tax incentives have yet to translate into a meaningful narrowing of the trade gap.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and supply chain disruptions linked to global trade frictions continue to hamper Turkey’s export performance. Energy price volatility, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, remains a key external shock influencing the trade deficit.
This chart confirms the trade deficit is trending upward sharply, reversing a brief improvement seen in September. The widening gap underscores vulnerabilities in Turkey’s external accounts, driven by currency depreciation and elevated import costs.
Drivers this month
- Energy imports surged by 15% MoM, reflecting global price hikes.
- Machinery and intermediate goods imports increased 8%, partly due to TRY weakness.
- Exports grew only 2% MoM, lagging behind import growth.
Policy pulse
The CBRT’s monetary tightening has yet to reverse the deficit trend, suggesting further policy calibration may be necessary to stabilize the currency and external accounts.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The TRY/USD exchange rate weakened sharply post-release, while short-term bond yields rose, reflecting heightened risk perceptions among investors.
Looking ahead, Turkey’s trade balance trajectory will hinge on several key factors. The base case scenario, with a 60% probability, assumes moderate stabilization of the TRY and gradual improvement in export volumes, leading to a narrowing deficit to around -6 billion TRY by Q1 2026.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global energy prices retreat sharply, reducing import costs.
- Export diversification efforts gain traction, boosting foreign sales by 10% YoY.
- CBRT’s monetary policy successfully stabilizes the TRY, improving trade terms.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Further TRY depreciation exacerbates import inflation.
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt key export markets.
- Global supply chain issues persist, limiting export growth.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Turkey’s chronic trade deficits reflect structural challenges, including energy dependency and limited high-value export capacity. Long-term reforms targeting energy efficiency, export diversification, and currency stability are critical to reversing the persistent external imbalance.
Turkey’s November 2025 trade balance print signals mounting external pressures amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop. The widening deficit, driven by energy costs and currency weakness, complicates the inflation outlook and monetary policy effectiveness. While fiscal prudence and export support measures provide some buffer, geopolitical risks and global market volatility remain significant headwinds. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act to stabilize the TRY, contain inflation, and foster sustainable export growth. Market participants should monitor currency trends and energy prices closely, as these will be key determinants of Turkey’s external sector trajectory in the near term.
Key Markets Likely to React to Trade Balance
The trade balance is a vital indicator for markets sensitive to Turkey’s external sector health. Currency pairs, equity indices, and commodity-linked assets often respond swiftly to such data. Below are five tradable symbols historically correlated with Turkey’s trade balance movements:
- USDTRY – The primary currency pair reflecting TRY strength or weakness against the USD, highly sensitive to trade balance shifts.
- BIST100 – Turkey’s benchmark equity index, often impacted by external trade and currency conditions.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s USD pair, included due to its growing role as an alternative asset in emerging markets like Turkey.
- EURTRY – Reflects TRY’s performance against the euro, relevant given Turkey’s trade ties with the EU.
- AKBNK.IS – Akbank shares, a major Turkish bank sensitive to macroeconomic and currency fluctuations.
Indicator vs. USDTRY Since 2020
Since 2020, Turkey’s trade deficit expansions have closely tracked TRY depreciation against the USD. Periods of widening deficits coincide with sharp USDTRY spikes, underscoring the currency’s role as both a driver and barometer of external imbalances. This correlation highlights the importance of currency stability in managing Turkey’s trade dynamics.
FAQs
- What does Turkey’s trade balance indicate about its economy?
- Turkey’s trade balance reflects the gap between exports and imports, signaling external sector health and currency pressures.
- How does the trade deficit affect monetary policy in Turkey?
- A widening trade deficit can fuel inflation via higher import costs, complicating the Central Bank’s efforts to stabilize prices and the currency.
- Why is the Turkish lira sensitive to trade balance data?
- The TRY often reacts to trade data because deficits imply higher foreign currency demand, pressuring the local currency.
Key takeaway: Turkey’s expanding trade deficit in November 2025 highlights persistent external vulnerabilities, with currency stability and energy prices as pivotal factors shaping near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
USDTRY – Primary currency pair reflecting TRY strength and trade balance sensitivity.
BIST100 – Turkey’s main equity index, impacted by external trade and currency conditions.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin/USD, relevant as an alternative asset in Turkey’s volatile macro environment.
EURTRY – Reflects TRY’s performance against the euro, important for Turkey-EU trade relations.
AKBNK.IS – Akbank shares, sensitive to macroeconomic and currency fluctuations in Turkey.
Comparing November’s trade deficit of -7.40 billion TRY with October’s -6.90 billion TRY and the 12-month average of -5.50 billion TRY reveals a clear worsening trend. The deficit has deepened by 7.20% month-on-month and is 34.50% wider than the average over the past year.
Seasonal adjustments aside, the persistent deficit expansion signals structural pressures, notably from rising import bills and subdued export growth. The chart below illustrates the monthly trade balance trajectory since August 2025, highlighting the sharp deterioration in recent months.