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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Treasury Cash Balance fell to -467.2 T in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Treasury Cash Balance fell to -467.2 T in September 2026, released October 2026, down 517.02 T from August's 49.82 T reading. The reading missed the -220 T consensus by 247.2 T. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -199.86 T. Over the past 3 months, Treasury Cash Balance averaged -271.01 T, vs -109.61 T in the prior 3-month window. Treasury Cash Balance is now the lowest in 35 months.
Latest Release
-467.2
Actual
-220
Consensus
49.82
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±89.42
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -232.64
Actual: -467.2
Error: +234.56
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Treasury Cash Balance (Turkey) was reported at -467.20 T in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -220.00 T by 247.20 T. The reading fell from the previous value of 49.82 T. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -167.52, ranging from -467.20 to 56.39 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -271.01, down from the prior three at -57.34. Volatility over the past year (σ 190.70) is comparable than the prior year (σ 197.78). In October readings over the past 3 years, Treasury Cash Balance has averaged -342.68.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 89.43.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Treasury Cash Balance - TR
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About Treasury Cash Balance — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Treasury Cash Balance is a financial indicator that measures the amount of cash held by the United States Treasury Department. This balance is an important metric for monitoring the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and manage its budget. It is also used as a gauge of the overall health of the economy, as a higher cash balance indicates a stronger financial position for the government. Investors and economists closely monitor this indicator to gain insights into the government's fiscal policies and potential impact on the financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -467.2 T, consensus -220 T. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -467.2 T. Before that (Aug 2026): 49.82 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |