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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Treasury Cash Balance fell to -279.58 T in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
Turkey Treasury Cash Balance fell to -279.58 T in March 2026, released April 2026, down 185.16 T from February's -94.42 T reading. The reading matched the -270 T consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -167.58 T. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-279.578
Actual
-270
Consensus
-94.42
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±89.42
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: -220
Actual: -359.89
Error: +139.89
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Treasury Cash Balance (Turkey) was reported at -128.35 billion in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -251.24 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -171.63 billion, ranging from -455.11 billion to 84.22 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -156.26 billion, up from the prior three at -212.17 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 177.42 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 168.71 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Treasury Cash Balance has averaged 117.84 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 89.43 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jul 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Treasury Cash Balance - TR
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About Treasury Cash Balance — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Treasury Cash Balance is a financial indicator that measures the amount of cash held by the United States Treasury Department. This balance is an important metric for monitoring the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and manage its budget. It is also used as a gauge of the overall health of the economy, as a higher cash balance indicates a stronger financial position for the government. Investors and economists closely monitor this indicator to gain insights into the government's fiscal policies and potential impact on the financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -128.4 T. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -251.2 T. Before that (Mar 2026): -279.6 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Tuesday, June 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -5.6 | -8.5 | -7.7 | -8.07 | Medium |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 22.5 | 25.4 | 22.8 | 22.32 | Low |