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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Treasury Cash Balance climbed to 49.82 T in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Turkey Treasury Cash Balance climbed to 49.82 T in August 2026, released September 2026, up 445.51 T from July's -395.7 T reading. The reading missed the 75.1 T consensus by 25.28 T. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -188.05 T. Over the past 3 months, Treasury Cash Balance averaged -172.45 T, vs -219.72 T in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 81st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
49.816
Actual
75.1
Consensus
-395.698
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±89.42
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 300.48
Actual: 49.82
Error: +250.66
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Treasury Cash Balance (Turkey) was reported at 49.82 T in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 75.10 T by 25.28 T. The reading rose from the previous value of -395.70 T. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -155.59 T, ranging from -395.65 T to 56.39 T across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -98.36 T, up from the prior three at -156.26 T. Volatility over the past year (σ 174.23 T) is comparable than the prior year (σ 190.65 T). In September readings over the past 3 years, Treasury Cash Balance has averaged -20.19 T.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 89.43 T.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Treasury Cash Balance - TR
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About Treasury Cash Balance — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Treasury Cash Balance is a financial indicator that measures the amount of cash held by the United States Treasury Department. This balance is an important metric for monitoring the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and manage its budget. It is also used as a gauge of the overall health of the economy, as a higher cash balance indicates a stronger financial position for the government. Investors and economists closely monitor this indicator to gain insights into the government's fiscal policies and potential impact on the financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 49.82 T, consensus 75.1 T. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -395.7 T. Before that (Jun 2026): 50.76 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |