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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TaiwanTaiwan Balance of Trade climbed to 22.3B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Taiwan Balance of Trade climbed to 22.3B in August 2026, released September 2026, up 5.1B from July's 17.2B reading. The print exceeded the 16.4B consensus by 5.9B. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 14.7B, vs 17.84B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
22.3
Actual
16.4
Consensus
17.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.44 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 14.8
Actual: 22.3
Error: -7.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/TWD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Taiwan) was reported at 22.30 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 16.40 billion by 5.90 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 17.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.58 billion, ranging from 12.20 billion to 22.30 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 17.23 billion, up from the prior three at 16.52 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.33 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.43 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 16.87 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.44 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - TW
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About Balance of Trade — Taiwan
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 22.3 T, consensus 16.4 T. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 17.2 T. Before that (Jun 2026): 12.2 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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