Latest Consumer Confidence in Taiwan: November 2025 Analysis
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Taiwan’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November 2025 registered at 64.65, up from 63.96 in October and beating the consensus estimate of 64.00, according to the Sigmanomics database. This marks a modest improvement but remains well below the 12-month average of approximately 67.50, reflecting persistent caution among consumers. The index peaked at 74.61 in December 2024 before trending downward through 2025, influenced by inflationary pressures, global supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainties in the region.
Drivers this month
- Improved labor market conditions with unemployment steady near 3.70%
- Moderate easing of inflation from 3.20% YoY in September to 2.80% in October
- Stable retail sales growth of 1.10% MoM in October supporting consumer spending
- Lingering concerns over cross-strait tensions and export demand
Policy pulse
The Central Bank of Taiwan has maintained a cautious monetary stance, keeping the policy rate at 1.75% amid inflation pressures. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with the TWD currency appreciating slightly against the USD, reflecting safe-haven flows. Fiscal policy remains conservative, with the government’s budget deficit forecast at 2.30% of GDP for 2025, limiting stimulus capacity.
Market lens
Following the CCI release, the TWD/USD pair strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour, while Taiwan’s 2-year government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, signaling investor confidence in the economic outlook. Equity markets showed muted reaction, with the 2330.TW (TSMC) slightly outperforming the broader market.
Foundational Indicators
Consumer confidence is closely linked to core macroeconomic indicators. Taiwan’s GDP growth slowed to an estimated 2.10% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 3.00% in Q1, reflecting weaker export demand and cautious domestic spending. Inflation has moderated but remains above the Central Bank’s 2% target, pressuring real incomes. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.70%, near historic lows, supporting household income stability.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank’s steady policy rate of 1.75% aims to balance inflation control with growth support. Credit growth has slowed to 4.50% YoY, reflecting tighter lending standards. The TWD’s 2.50% appreciation against the USD year-to-date has dampened export competitiveness but bolstered consumer purchasing power for imports.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal discipline remains a priority, with the government projecting a 2.30% of GDP deficit in 2025, slightly higher than 2.00% in 2024. Limited fiscal stimulus constrains direct support for consumer spending, though targeted subsidies for energy and housing costs aim to alleviate inflationary pressures.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait and global supply chain uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook. Trade disruptions and semiconductor sector volatility pose downside risks to consumer sentiment and economic growth.
Chart Dynamics
Historical comparisons highlight that the current CCI level is similar to readings in mid-2023, a period marked by cautious optimism amid global uncertainties. The index’s downward trend since early 2025 aligns with tightening monetary policy and geopolitical risks.
This chart indicates a consumer confidence trend that is stabilizing after a significant decline. The recent uptick suggests that consumers may be adjusting expectations in response to improving inflation and labor market conditions, though risks remain elevated.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The TWD/USD currency pair appreciated 0.30% post-release, while Taiwan’s 2-year government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, reflecting increased investor confidence. The 2330.TW (TSMC) stock price gained 0.40%, outperforming the broader market.
Forward Outlook
Looking ahead, Taiwan’s consumer confidence faces a complex mix of factors. We outline three scenarios:
- Bullish (30% probability): Inflation continues to ease below 2.50%, fiscal stimulus is modestly expanded, and geopolitical tensions ease, supporting a rebound in consumer confidence to above 70 by mid-2026.
- Base (50% probability): Inflation stabilizes near 2.80%, monetary policy remains steady, and geopolitical risks persist, keeping consumer confidence in the 63–66 range through early 2026.
- Bearish (20% probability): Inflation spikes above 3.50%, supply chain disruptions worsen, and geopolitical tensions escalate, pushing consumer confidence below 60 and dampening domestic demand.
Key risks include global economic slowdown, semiconductor sector volatility, and cross-strait relations. Upside potential hinges on successful inflation control and improved trade conditions.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term, Taiwan’s consumer confidence is influenced by demographic shifts, rising household debt, and evolving consumption patterns. The aging population and urbanization may temper spending growth, while digital economy expansion offers new opportunities.
Closing Thoughts
November’s consumer confidence reading of 64.65 reflects a cautious but stable sentiment among Taiwanese consumers. While the index remains below early 2025 highs, the modest rebound suggests resilience amid inflation moderation and steady employment. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with growth support amid external uncertainties. Financial markets have responded positively, but risks from geopolitical tensions and global economic shifts persist. Monitoring core indicators and policy developments will be critical to assessing Taiwan’s consumer outlook in the coming months.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Taiwan’s consumer confidence data typically influences equity, currency, and bond markets sensitive to domestic demand and economic outlook. The following symbols historically track the indicator’s movements:
- 2330.TW – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a bellwether for Taiwan’s economy and export sector.
- TWDUSD – Taiwan Dollar vs. US Dollar, reflecting currency strength linked to economic sentiment.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often a risk sentiment proxy, reacts to shifts in consumer and investor confidence.
- 0050.TW – Taiwan 50 ETF, representing broad market exposure sensitive to consumer trends.
- USDTWD – US Dollar vs. Taiwan Dollar, inverse of TWDUSD, useful for hedging currency exposure.
Extras: Consumer Confidence vs. 2330.TW Since 2020
| Year | Avg. Consumer Confidence | 2330.TW Avg. Price (TWD) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 68.20 | 350 |
| 2021 | 70.50 | 450 |
| 2022 | 66.00 | 400 |
| 2023 | 65.50 | 380 |
| 2024 | 69.80 | 420 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 66.20 | 410 |
Insight: The correlation between Taiwan’s consumer confidence and TSMC’s stock price is strong, with both reflecting economic cycles. Periods of rising confidence generally coincide with TSMC price appreciation, underscoring the semiconductor sector’s role in shaping sentiment.
FAQs
- What is the current level of Taiwan’s Consumer Confidence Index?
- The latest reading for November 2025 is 64.65, showing a slight increase from October’s 63.96.
- How does consumer confidence affect Taiwan’s economy?
- Consumer confidence influences spending behavior, impacting GDP growth, retail sales, and overall economic momentum.
- What are the main risks to Taiwan’s consumer confidence outlook?
- Key risks include inflation volatility, geopolitical tensions, and global supply chain disruptions.
Tradable Symbols Referenced
- 2330.TW – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, key economic bellwether.
- TWDUSD – Taiwan Dollar vs. US Dollar currency pair, sensitive to economic sentiment.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, a proxy for risk appetite and market sentiment.
- 0050.TW – Taiwan 50 ETF, broad market exposure.
- USDTWD – US Dollar vs. Taiwan Dollar, inverse currency pair.
The November 2025 Consumer Confidence Index of 64.65 represents a slight increase from October’s 63.96 and remains below the 12-month average of 67.50. This 0.69-point MoM rise signals tentative improvement after a four-month decline from the 2025 peak of 72.59 in February.
Compared to the December 2024 high of 74.61, the current reading is 13.30% lower, reflecting ongoing headwinds. The index’s trajectory shows a stabilization phase, with the recent uptick possibly driven by easing inflation and steady employment.