Taiwan’s current account balance for November 2025 surged to TWD 45.84 billion, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of TWD 34 billion and the previous month’s TWD 36.23 billion. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, represents the highest surplus recorded since at least August 2023, highlighting Taiwan’s strong external position amid a complex global environment.

Drivers this month

• Export growth accelerated, particularly in semiconductors and electronics.
• Improved terms of trade due to higher global commodity prices.
• Services deficit narrowed slightly, reflecting stronger tourism inflows.

Policy pulse

The current account surplus supports Taiwan’s monetary policy stance, which remains cautious but accommodative. The central bank is balancing inflation risks against growth concerns, with the surplus providing a buffer against external volatility.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The TWD appreciated by 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting investor confidence in Taiwan’s external resilience. Bond yields edged lower, signaling reduced risk premia.

The current account surplus of TWD 45.84 billion in November 2025 marks a 26.60% increase from the prior month’s TWD 36.23 billion and a 67.60% rise compared to the same month last year (TWD 27.22 billion in November 2024). Over the past two years, Taiwan’s current account has averaged approximately TWD 30 billion per month, making this latest print a notable outlier on the upside.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

Taiwan’s central bank has maintained a steady policy rate near 1.75%, with inflation running at 2.80% YoY as of October 2025. The robust current account surplus provides room for policy flexibility, reducing pressure on the TWD and allowing measured rate adjustments.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal discipline continues, with the government running a modest deficit of 1.50% of GDP. The external surplus helps finance this gap without excessive foreign borrowing, supporting sovereign creditworthiness.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait and ongoing supply chain realignments pose downside risks. However, Taiwan’s export diversification and strong tech sector mitigate some vulnerabilities.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The TWD/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.40%, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting improved investor sentiment and lower perceived risk.

Looking ahead, Taiwan’s current account surplus is likely to remain elevated but subject to external headwinds. Three scenarios outline the range of outcomes:

• Bullish (30% probability): Continued global tech demand and easing geopolitical tensions push the surplus above TWD 50 billion monthly, supporting currency strength and monetary easing.
• Base (50% probability): Moderate export growth sustains surpluses near TWD 40–45 billion, with balanced risks from inflation and external shocks.
• Bearish (20% probability): Escalation in regional conflicts or global recession pressures exports, shrinking the surplus below TWD 30 billion and prompting tighter financial conditions.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Taiwan’s export-led growth model and strong semiconductor industry underpin a structurally positive current account. However, rising labor costs and competition from regional peers may temper future gains. Diversification into services and innovation-driven sectors is critical for sustained external balance.

Taiwan’s November 2025 current account surplus of TWD 45.84 billion signals robust external fundamentals amid a challenging global backdrop. The data from the Sigmanomics database confirms Taiwan’s resilience, supported by strong exports and prudent macro policies. While geopolitical and economic risks remain, the current account strength provides a vital cushion for policymakers and markets alike.

Monitoring upcoming trade data, inflation trends, and geopolitical developments will be essential to gauge the sustainability of this surplus. Taiwan’s ability to navigate these factors will shape its macroeconomic trajectory in 2026 and beyond.

Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account

Taiwan’s current account data historically influences currency, equity, and bond markets. The following tradable symbols have shown strong correlations with Taiwan’s external balance:

• TWDTWD – The Taiwan Dollar’s exchange rate typically strengthens with rising current account surpluses.
• TSM – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s stock price often moves in tandem with export-driven current account shifts.
• 2330.TW – Taiwan’s leading tech stock, sensitive to trade flows and external demand.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect risk sentiment shifts tied to macroeconomic stability.
• USDTWD – The USD/TWD pair inversely correlates with Taiwan’s current account strength.

FAQs

What is the significance of Taiwan’s current account surplus?

The current account surplus indicates Taiwan’s strong export position and external financial health, supporting currency stability and economic growth.

How does the current account affect Taiwan’s monetary policy?

A robust surplus provides the central bank with flexibility to manage inflation and interest rates without excessive currency volatility.

What risks could impact Taiwan’s current account in the near term?

Geopolitical tensions, global demand shocks, and supply chain disruptions pose key risks to Taiwan’s external balance.

Takeaway: Taiwan’s record-high current account surplus in November 2025 highlights resilient external fundamentals, but vigilance is needed amid evolving global risks.