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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TaiwanTaiwan Export Orders YoY fell to 48.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Taiwan Export Orders YoY fell to 48.1% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 17.8% from March's 65.9% reading. The reading missed the 51.0% consensus by 2.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 32.19%. Over the past 3 months, Export Orders YoY averaged 49.93%, vs 41.65% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
48.1
Actual
51
Consensus
65.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 46.23
Actual: 48.1
Error: -1.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Orders YoY (Taiwan) was reported at 48.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 51% by 2.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 65.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 31.7%, ranging from 15.2% to 60.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 44%, up from the prior three at 36.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 13.6%) is higher than the prior year (σ 9.21%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Export Orders YoY has averaged 26.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Export Orders YoY - TW
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About Export Orders YoY — Taiwan
DEFINITION
Export Orders YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the value of export orders placed by businesses over a 12-month period. This indicator provides insight into the strength of a country's export market and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. A positive YoY change indicates an increase in export orders, while a negative change suggests a decline. Export Orders YoY is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers as it can impact trade balances, currency values, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 48.1 %, consensus 51 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 65.9 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 23.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.70) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.