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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TaiwanTaiwan Export Orders YoY fell to 62.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Taiwan Export Orders YoY fell to 62.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 9.0% from August's 71.4% reading. The print exceeded the 58.7% consensus by 3.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 48.06%. Over the past 3 months, Export Orders YoY averaged 66.65%, vs 51.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
62.4
Actual
58.7
Consensus
71.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.64 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 66.98
Actual: 62.4
Error: +4.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Orders YoY (Taiwan) was reported at 62.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 58.7% by 3.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 71.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.34%, ranging from 23.8% to 71.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 65.23%, up from the prior three at 51.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 14.79%) is higher than the prior year (σ 10.1%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Export Orders YoY has averaged 32.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.64%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Export Orders YoY - TW
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About Export Orders YoY — Taiwan
DEFINITION
Export Orders YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the value of export orders placed by businesses over a 12-month period. This indicator provides insight into the strength of a country's export market and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. A positive YoY change indicates an increase in export orders, while a negative change suggests a decline. Export Orders YoY is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers as it can impact trade balances, currency values, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 62.4 %, consensus 65 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 71.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 61.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.58) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TW Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | TW | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 14.36 | 12.93 | 12 | 13.12 | Low |