Taiwan’s export orders growth year-on-year (YoY) for November 2025 registered at 25.10%, marking a slowdown from October’s 30.50% but remaining well above the 12-month average of approximately 19.30%. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, falls short of the 32% consensus estimate, signaling a moderation in external demand pressures.

Drivers this month

• Global semiconductor demand softened amid inventory adjustments in key markets.
• Supply chain disruptions eased slightly but continue to weigh on order fulfillment.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region contributed to cautious buyer behavior.

Policy pulse

The reading remains robust relative to Taiwan’s historical export order trends, indicating resilience despite global headwinds. The central bank’s inflation target remains unaffected, but the slowdown suggests a need for calibrated monetary support to sustain export growth.

Market lens

Following the release, the Taiwan dollar (TWD) depreciated marginally against the US dollar, reflecting tempered export optimism. The 2-year government bond yield edged up by 5 basis points, signaling modest risk repricing in financial markets.

Export orders are a leading indicator of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector health and overall economic momentum. The 25.10% YoY growth in November contrasts with the sharp contraction of -3% in February 2025, illustrating a strong rebound over the year. The mid-year troughs of 15.20% in August and 18.50% in June highlight the volatility driven by external shocks.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

Tightening monetary policy by the Central Bank of Taiwan, including incremental rate hikes totaling 75 basis points since mid-2025, has begun to temper export order growth. Financial conditions have tightened, with corporate borrowing costs rising, impacting capital expenditure plans in export-oriented industries.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal stimulus measures focused on infrastructure and technology upgrades have partially offset external demand softness. The government’s budget surplus narrowed slightly due to increased spending on innovation grants and export facilitation programs.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical risks, particularly cross-strait tensions and US-China trade frictions, continue to inject uncertainty. These factors have led to cautious inventory management by global buyers, affecting Taiwan’s export order pipeline.

Drivers this month

• Semiconductor export orders declined by 4.50 percentage points MoM, reflecting global inventory adjustments.
• Electronics and machinery exports maintained steady growth, contributing 12.30 percentage points to the overall figure.
• Automotive component orders rose modestly, adding 2.10 percentage points.

Policy pulse

The export order deceleration aligns with the Central Bank’s tightening cycle, which aims to balance inflation control with growth support. The current reading suggests the policy stance is beginning to moderate overheating risks without severely dampening export momentum.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The TWD weakened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while the TWSE index fell 0.50%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Breakeven inflation rates held steady, indicating stable inflation expectations despite slower export growth.

Looking ahead, Taiwan’s export orders face a complex mix of opportunities and risks. The base case scenario forecasts continued moderate growth of 15-20% YoY over the next six months, supported by steady demand in electronics and emerging sectors like electric vehicles.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Global demand rebounds sharply due to easing geopolitical tensions.
• Supply chain normalizes faster than expected, boosting order fulfillment.
• Monetary policy shifts to a more accommodative stance, lowering borrowing costs.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Export orders grow moderately at 15-20% YoY, reflecting balanced global demand.
• Monetary tightening continues but is calibrated to avoid growth shocks.
• Geopolitical risks persist but do not escalate materially.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade flows.
• Global recession risks materialize, reducing demand for Taiwan’s exports.
• Financial conditions tighten sharply, curbing corporate investment.

Policy makers should monitor these scenarios closely, adjusting fiscal and monetary tools to sustain export sector vitality. Diversification into higher value-added products and new markets will be critical for long-term resilience.

Taiwan’s November 2025 Export Orders YoY growth at 25.10% signals a moderation from recent peaks but remains robust historically. The data underscores the export sector’s resilience amid tightening financial conditions and geopolitical uncertainty. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with growth support, while businesses must navigate evolving global demand patterns.

Structural trends such as digital transformation and supply chain diversification will shape Taiwan’s export trajectory over the medium term. Investors and market participants should watch for shifts in monetary policy, geopolitical developments, and global demand signals to gauge future export momentum.

Key Markets Likely to React to Export Orders YoY

Taiwan’s export orders data significantly influences several financial markets. The Taiwan dollar (TWD) often moves in tandem with export performance, reflecting trade balance expectations. The Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) index reacts to export sector earnings outlooks. Semiconductor stocks like TSM are sensitive to global demand shifts. Currency pairs such as USDTWD track trade flow expectations. Additionally, crypto assets like BTCUSD may reflect broader risk sentiment linked to export-driven growth.

Selected Symbols

• TSM – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, a bellwether for Taiwan’s export sector.
• TWSE – Taiwan Stock Exchange Index, reflecting overall market sentiment tied to export performance.
• USDTWD – USD/TWD currency pair, sensitive to trade balance and export flows.
• USDCNY – USD/CNY currency pair, impacting Taiwan’s trade competitiveness.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin/USD, a proxy for global risk appetite influenced by export growth trends.

FAQs

What is the significance of Taiwan’s Export Orders YoY data?

The Export Orders YoY metric indicates future export activity and manufacturing demand, serving as a leading economic indicator for Taiwan’s trade-dependent economy.

How does the November 2025 reading compare historically?

At 25.10%, November’s figure is below recent peaks but well above the 12-month average, reflecting a moderation yet sustained export strength.

What are the main risks affecting Taiwan’s export orders?

Key risks include geopolitical tensions, global demand slowdown, and tighter financial conditions impacting corporate investment and trade flows.

Takeaway: Taiwan’s export orders remain a vital barometer of economic health, with the latest data signaling cautious optimism amid global uncertainties.