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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TaiwanTaiwan Exports YoY fell to 40.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Taiwan Exports YoY fell to 40.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 11.4% from May's 51.7% reading. The reading missed the 48.6% consensus by 8.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 43.72%. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 45.35%, vs 50.77% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 72nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
40.3
Actual
48.6
Consensus
51.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±13.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 55.5
Actual: 40.3
Error: +15.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/TWD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Taiwan) was reported at 40.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 48.6% by 8.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 51.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 43.53%, ranging from 20.6% to 69.9% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 37.53%, down from the prior three at 56.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 13.5%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 12.31%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 32.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 13.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Exports YoY - TW
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About Exports YoY — Taiwan
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 40.3 %, consensus 48.6 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 51.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 39 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TW Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | TW | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 12.92 | 14.55 | 10.8 | 11.86 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 12.92 | 14.55 | 10.8 | 11.86 | Low |