Taiwan Industrial Production YoY: November 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Key takeaways: Taiwan’s November 2025 Industrial Production YoY growth slowed to 14.50%, below the 15.90% estimate and slightly under October’s 15.48%. This marks a moderation from the mid-year peak of 22.31% in May but remains robust versus the 12-month average of 14.70%. The data reflects ongoing global demand shifts, supply chain normalization, and cautious monetary policy. External geopolitical tensions and semiconductor sector dynamics remain key risks. Financial markets showed muted initial reactions, signaling tempered optimism. Forward scenarios range from a bullish rebound driven by export strength to a bearish slowdown amid global headwinds.
Table of Contents
Taiwan’s industrial production growth for November 2025 came in at 14.50% year-over-year (YoY), according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure is a slight deceleration from October’s 15.48% but remains well above the 12-month average of approximately 14.70%. The print missed the consensus estimate of 15.90%, signaling a modest cooling in industrial activity after a strong first half of the year.
Drivers this month
- Semiconductor manufacturing growth slowed but remained positive, reflecting global chip demand fluctuations.
- Electronics and machinery sectors showed steady output, supported by export orders to key partners like the US and China.
- Supply chain normalization contributed to stable production but limited upside surprises.
Policy pulse
The current reading sits below the central bank’s implicit growth expectations but remains consistent with a moderately expansionary monetary stance. Taiwan’s central bank has maintained cautious rate hikes to balance inflation control with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The TWD currency depreciated slightly by 0.10% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting tempered optimism. Equity markets showed marginal gains, with the Taiwan Weighted Index (TWII) up 0.30%, signaling investor confidence in ongoing industrial resilience.
Industrial production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting Taiwan’s manufacturing health and export capacity. The 14.50% YoY growth in November 2025 contrasts with the volatile readings over the past year, including a low of 5.07% in February 2025 and a peak of 22.31% in May 2025. This volatility aligns with global supply chain disruptions and demand shocks.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
Tightening financial conditions globally and domestically have influenced industrial output. Taiwan’s central bank has incrementally raised policy rates since early 2025 to curb inflationary pressures, which have hovered near 2.50%. The moderation in industrial growth partly reflects these tighter credit conditions.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus has been targeted, focusing on infrastructure and technology investments. The government’s budget surplus position has allowed for measured support without overheating the economy. However, fiscal policy remains cautious amid external uncertainties.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait and US-China trade frictions continue to pose risks. These factors contribute to supply chain recalibrations and cautious capital expenditure by firms, impacting industrial production growth.
Monthly data shows a pattern of sharp swings, with February’s 5.07% low reflecting pandemic aftershocks and May’s 22.31% peak driven by semiconductor demand surges. The recent moderation suggests a normalization phase as global demand stabilizes.
This chart highlights Taiwan’s industrial production trending upward overall but reversing the two-month growth acceleration seen in September and October. The data suggests a transition from rapid recovery to steadier growth, influenced by external demand and domestic policy.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Taiwan Dollar (TWD) weakened marginally post-release, while the Taiwan Weighted Index (TWII) edged higher, reflecting mixed investor sentiment balancing growth optimism with caution over external risks.
Looking ahead, Taiwan’s industrial production trajectory depends on several factors. The semiconductor sector remains pivotal, with global chip demand and supply chain resilience shaping outcomes. External geopolitical risks and global economic conditions will also influence growth.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (30% probability): Strong export demand and easing geopolitical tensions drive industrial growth above 16% YoY in early 2026.
- Base (50% probability): Moderate growth around 13–15% YoY continues, supported by steady global demand and stable domestic policies.
- Bearish (20% probability): Renewed supply chain disruptions or geopolitical escalations cause growth to slow below 10% YoY.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Taiwan’s industrial sector is undergoing structural shifts toward high-tech manufacturing and green energy. Long-run trends favor automation and innovation, which may buffer cyclical volatility and support sustainable growth.
Taiwan’s November 2025 industrial production data underscores a resilient manufacturing sector facing a complex macro backdrop. While growth has moderated from mid-year highs, it remains robust by historical standards. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support amid external uncertainties. Investors should monitor semiconductor demand, geopolitical developments, and monetary policy shifts closely.
Overall, Taiwan’s industrial production outlook is cautiously optimistic, with risks well balanced by structural strengths and policy support.
Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY
Taiwan’s industrial production data significantly influences regional equity, currency, and commodity markets. Key symbols historically sensitive to this indicator include semiconductor stocks, the Taiwan Dollar, and related tech sectors. These markets reflect investor sentiment on Taiwan’s manufacturing health and export outlook.
- TSMC – Taiwan’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, closely tied to industrial output trends.
- USDTWD – The USD/TWD currency pair reacts to shifts in Taiwan’s economic fundamentals.
- 2330.TW – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s ticker, a bellwether for industrial production.
- EURTWD – Euro to Taiwan Dollar, reflecting broader trade and capital flows.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often correlates inversely with risk sentiment influenced by macroeconomic data.
Insight: Industrial Production vs. TSMC Stock Performance Since 2020
Since 2020, Taiwan’s industrial production YoY growth and TSMC’s stock price have shown a strong positive correlation. Periods of accelerated industrial output, such as mid-2021 and early 2025, coincide with significant TSMC share price rallies. This relationship underscores TSMC’s role as a proxy for Taiwan’s manufacturing health and global semiconductor demand. Investors tracking industrial production can gain early signals on TSMC’s performance trajectory.
FAQ
- What is Taiwan’s Industrial Production YoY for November 2025?
- The latest figure is 14.50% YoY, indicating a slight slowdown from October’s 15.48% but still strong growth overall.
- How does this data impact Taiwan’s monetary policy?
- The moderate growth supports the central bank’s cautious tightening stance, balancing inflation control with growth support.
- What are the main risks to Taiwan’s industrial production outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, global supply chain disruptions, and fluctuations in semiconductor demand.
Final takeaway: Taiwan’s industrial production remains robust but shows signs of moderation, reflecting a complex interplay of global demand, policy, and geopolitical factors. Close monitoring of semiconductor trends and external risks is essential for anticipating future growth trajectories.
November’s 14.50% YoY industrial production growth is down from October’s 15.48% and slightly below the 12-month average of 14.70%. This marks a deceleration from the mid-year peak of 22.31% in May but remains elevated compared to the 10.29% recorded in December 2024.
The key figure of 14.50% indicates sustained expansion but signals a cooling trend after a volatile 2025.