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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UkraineUkraine Balance of Trade climbed to -30.6M in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased November 2025
Ukraine Balance of Trade climbed to -30.6M in September 2025, released November 2025, up 3,559.2M from August's -3,589.8M reading. The print exceeded the -2,850M consensus by 2,819.4M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -2,708.43M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -1,938.13M, vs -3,324.2M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 25 months.
Latest Release
-30.6
Actual
-2850
Consensus
-3589.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1,300.63 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Nov 2025
Predicted: -2,141.56
Actual: -30.6
Error: -2,110.96
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Ukraine) was reported at -30.60 million in November 2025. This beat the market consensus of -2,850.00 million by 2,819.40 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -3,589.80 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through November 2025. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2,106.86 million, ranging from -4,101.50 million to -30.60 million across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -30.60 million, up from the prior three at -3,863.97 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,822.26 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 495.24 million). In November readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -1,114.96 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1,300.63 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2025.
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Balance of Trade - UA
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About Balance of Trade — Ukraine
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual -30.6 M, consensus -2,850 M. Prior reading (Sep 2025): -30.6 M. Before that (Sep 2025): -30.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.